Thursday, August 27, 2009

Market Outlook

Greetings-

Futures look relatively flat today - which should indicate a flat or slightly red open. Other than that the big earnings news will come today after the bell, with DELL, as they report numbers. From my research, DELL seems to have been struggling with margins last quarter, as many of their component makers charged higher prices (to DELL) for the goods. I would love a sell off in the name to $13, so I could buy it. Long-term DELL will be fine, although HPQ seems to be knocking the cover off the ball. All in all, I will probably not buy anything today but that could change. I like coservative names like PG and PEP for the next 6 months; however, I just don't see any "sales" on wall street right now; therefore, I will just play it smart and sit back. LPX continues to explode after I sold it - shocker there! But WY, another housing play I own, hasn't moved nearly as much and is a good company. I am dissapointed they are selling timber land for dirty cheap. This is shoring up the balance sheet but since they are selling the at such low prices, it also hurts the true instrinic value of the stock. My estimates before were $50-55; now it's been lowered to $45-50. Regardless, I believe there are been a bottom in real estate (residential) and lumber is a good way to play it. I do NOT like the etfs like CUT though. Many firms that are in that etf have doubles or tripled (international based firms) and upside remains rather limited. I would also love to catch a pull in some emerging markets etfs, like Brazil (EWZ) because GDP growth seems to be robust in the coming years (will discuss Brazil soon).

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