I finally have a quick minute. The market seems weak, with volume is relatively light and short sellers coming back. In addition, the "Gold Bugs" have came out of hibernation and buying up gold. Personally, from a technical perspective, Gold needs to break and close above $1004, for me to get super bullish, but with the printing press going on in Washington, it might be worth something.
As for my positions, I am down in just about everything. I sold the last of my FAS position today for a $695 profit. In addition, I tried to catch a trade in MAC but broke even. To elaborate more, I hate REITs. I mean seriously, I can't stand them, but there are heavily shorted and this is chances for squeezes but not with this volume. Personally, I wouldn't be surpised to see MAC go to $0 because its a big mall REIT, that has $1 billion in debt due in 2010, with only $150 million in cash and a small credit line. If the CMBS market comes back around, they should fair but with the weaker retail space and weak CMBS market, it doesn't look good. With that being said, I see why it has a 39% short interest BUT some of those are "weak" short sellers and a squeeze it possible. Currently, I have no position but maybe be back.
AXP started slow today but I bought more in premarket, to average down my cost basis. The credit card area could be the next shoe to fall and it will hurt AXP (since they carry debt, where Visa and Mastercard don't); however, I like it for a trade. I also opened up a position on X. RT highlighted the technicals very well but I think it is very cheap compared to its peers, particularly NUE.
In addition, I sold some $15 SSO puts for $0.45. I will also probably buy TXN today and may take some profits in various names, but its too early to tell.
In markets like this, its important to "scale" into positions by buying in increments. It will save and make you alot...
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Oil inventory report came out showing increases in supply, which is what I expected. I am still holding the DXO, but as a nice hedge I took down a huge position on Intrade for March 31st gas prices at $2.00 or less (national average is about $1.93 right now).
ReplyDeleteInteresting...the oil etf's are so weird. I mean every time DXO hits $2.50, it goes to $2, then back to $2.50, starting in Feb.
ReplyDeleteOn Feb 12 it was $2.50ish then on Feb 18 it was $1.80
On Feb 26th went to $2.50, then March 2nd $2.00
Then March 9th $2.50, and now going back to $2.00
3 Times since Feb 12th!