I really didn't know if I should post my options trades but since a few have asked, I will provide.
I bought 35 April $3 Call Options on the UYG for $0.10 per contract. I do not plan to exercise, but I like the possibility for nice move here.
I bought some March $70 Puts on the SPY has well for $1.50 (small in size but just a hedge)
RF Top Positions Update (Position size in order from top to bottom, top being biggest position) :
PCR
FXI
KIM
UA
TNA
AXP
FAS
YTD Return + 88.22% (Returns are Pre-Tax, include dividends/option proceeds through naked writing, some trades made on margin, and have fees/commissions deducted)
Portfolio Volatility - 92.18% (S&P 42%)
If you got in on the financials trade posted Sunday (check archives) then things looked good today. I wish I didn't covered my SKF short at $240 but oh well, life goes on. I'm still long 500 shares of FAS but I have sold 1,100 shares within the past few days. If we blow through the $175 on the SKF chart, I believe it will shoot all the way to $125. So for those who are in, my view would be to cover 30-50% here and cover the rest at $125 levels, if we get that low.
My top position is financials. I am bullish because I believe the bears have raided these banks into the ground. Restoring the uptick rule is a big plus and will hopefully reduce the bear raids but I guess they can always try in the CDS market. There is a strong march against mark-to-market, however, I doubt it will be banned anytime soon. If you are bullish, I like NITE, JPM, AXP, MS, GS. If you want to play a short squeeze in commerical real estate, I like KIM, URE, SPG, and VNO.
If you have more risk, believe in the rally, and want a nice trade (not investment), look at these financials for the "Manhattan Short Squeeze" (all trade over 500k in volume, have fair or above average technicals)
MAC (32.40% short interest)
CBL (27% short interst)
SKT (22% short interest)
ESS (22% short interest)
FR (21.5% short interest)
SLG (21% short interest)
CATY (20% short interest)
The way I look at it is just because a stock is at $5 and will probably go to $0, doesn't mean it can't go to $10 in between...
We will have a guest commentator on tonight. RT is a good friend of mine, has been frequently posting in the comments, and has some good commentary on FAS, X, and BIG. RT has some great ideas, so look for this coming up later..
Disclosure: RT's views do not reflect my personal investment views or the blog's.
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Impressive. Do you mind elaborating on your trading strategy?
ReplyDeleteI will take a look at these
ReplyDeleteAnonymous - Thanks for the comment, I appreciate it. I've done well so far this year but "every dog as his day" I guess but I need to get my risk down some. I got an e-mail from someone two weeks ago, who is up 105% YTD and his volatility is only 54%, through his systems trading platform. I believe he trades only S&P futures or a few ETF's that run off a quant.
ReplyDeleteAs for my strategy, I am more of a swing trader. I focuses mostly on technicals, as well slight fundamentals. I don't know your expertise but I look at various things, like gaps, channels, breakouts, moving averages, then conduct deeper analysis from there. I also like to get understand the fundamentals, mainly for short selling. These days, its seems like the "fundamentalists" are not doing as well as the "chartists". I also keep tight stops and put smaller positions out there, due to the bear market conditions.
All in all, I think the key is to be realistic and don't put yourself into a position where you can get hurt.
John - Thanks for the comment