I go under the secret identity of RF. I have "voices" in my head that tell me to buy stocks. When I sell my positions, they immediately shoot up another 15%, just to play games with me. I can't explain, just follow and watch the mystery. I have been trading for 7 years and I hope you enjoy the blog, as well as get good ideas. I also invite your comments and views. Feel free to comment or e-mail me at trade247@gmail.com. All positions posted are taken by me in my personal account or account that I manage; however, are not investment recommendations. See disclaimer below. Thanks and enjoy!
What is really scary is the SP 500 peaked around 1590 in late 2007, and now is printing 683. That is already a 57% retracement as of March 6. March marks the 17th month of our retracement - the crash of 1929's retracement of 89.2% (for the DJIA) lasted 36 months. To compare the two crashes, today's retracement of 57% is actually larger than the 1929 retracement during the 17th month (approximately 50%).
There are still other major businesses in the US that will face significant financial pressures in the coming months. Commercial Real Estate firms such as FRT, SPG, BXP, and KIM are facing significant refinancing of short term debt in the next few quarters within 2009. These firms have billions of dollars of debt to refi or be forced to sell off their leasing assets.
Major banks are not in a position to lend to these firms on such a large scale, and the commercial real estate market is dismal. This is just one sector of many facing significant pricing issues in the near future.
Bold prediction - 2007 recession market bottom for SP near 250 by 3rd quarter 2010.
What is really scary is the SP 500 peaked around 1590 in late 2007, and now is printing 683. That is already a 57% retracement as of March 6. March marks the 17th month of our retracement - the crash of 1929's retracement of 89.2% (for the DJIA) lasted 36 months. To compare the two crashes, today's retracement of 57% is actually larger than the 1929 retracement during the 17th month (approximately 50%).
ReplyDeleteThere are still other major businesses in the US that will face significant financial pressures in the coming months. Commercial Real Estate firms such as FRT, SPG, BXP, and KIM are facing significant refinancing of short term debt in the next few quarters within 2009. These firms have billions of dollars of debt to refi or be forced to sell off their leasing assets.
Major banks are not in a position to lend to these firms on such a large scale, and the commercial real estate market is dismal. This is just one sector of many facing significant pricing issues in the near future.
Bold prediction - 2007 recession market bottom for SP near 250 by 3rd quarter 2010.