We have moved the mothership over to:
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Monday, October 12, 2009
Saturday, October 10, 2009
APPL causes NAND shortage - again!
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/09/10/09/apple_again_causes_worldwide_nand_flash_shortage.html
(Note: If you are a Apple shareholder, I highly urge you to check out Appleinsider.com a few times a week)
Of course, who are NAND suppliers?
The almighty Micron (MU) :D
Samsung as well
(Note: If you are a Apple shareholder, I highly urge you to check out Appleinsider.com a few times a week)
Of course, who are NAND suppliers?
The almighty Micron (MU) :D
Samsung as well
Friday, October 9, 2009
Market outlook
Market is stablizing but the key indicator are banks and tech - we need both. The NASAQ is approaching overbought levels but not of serious proportion. With my money, I will be adding to foregin stocks and shippers. This market in unpredictable but with earnings, I believe you do not want to be short, maybe a index short like TWM for a hedge but nothing major - if any, I have to due to amount of $$ i trade but otherwise just keep you a long only portfolio with some extra cash (30-50%) and buy the dips. Shippers - I believe we are getting a year end rally on the BDI. I will do the following now: Sell my HON for a 2% loss Buy GNK at $21.60 Buy TBSI at $8.93
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Shippers
I suspect a huge move in the BDI for 4th Quarter - the shipper trade is back on til Christmas
DSX, GNK, DRYS, EXM, TBSI
I am calling in now - 10/8/09
DSX, GNK, DRYS, EXM, TBSI
I am calling in now - 10/8/09
RF Buy
Bought SQM at 38.45
Bought 2500 FTK at 2.10, the intraday looks sick!
Will keep 2.05 stop on FTK
Bought 2500 FTK at 2.10, the intraday looks sick!
Will keep 2.05 stop on FTK
RF Sells
Sold 1/3 of STLD at 15.50 (13.90 cost)
Sold 1/2 ERTS at 20 (18.50 cost)
Sold 60% of mu at breakeven
Sold 1/2 ERTS at 20 (18.50 cost)
Sold 60% of mu at breakeven
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
I'm Going Global
Don't think your boy RF has fallen asleep because folks he hasn't. I have been testing the new blog out and just making sure everything is going to be good before we bolt from this Blogger site.
Away from that, I have been research emerging markets and believe that Brazil, Chile, Austraila, and Russia are my favorite while Sweden seems like Short. In fact, "birds from far away" are saying that Goldman Sachs is telling clients a pair trade: Long Russia Short Norway - if you want the Bloomberg codes, email me.
Brazil - Has a huge run but the broad way to play it is EWZ. VALE just got upgrades by Goldman Sachs today (shocker we had it in August at $19 but..) the raised estimates and see $28 per share. They are telling big clients to buy Dec or Jan $28 calls. I personally don't like that call but I bought back shares today in my client's portfolio, not my personal. STD is another bank I own; however, the IPO did terrible today - very disappointing. If you ever want to study a sweet chart, pull up a March - Oct chart on STD lollllll it's insane! It's a good bank. This weekend I will release some of my findings.
Russia- A consumer driven economy. I have been buying RSX about 2 weeks ago, as I mentioned and am up 6%. I will be in and out but many are bearish on Russia - I am not. Housing related equities in Russia need to bounce but the consumer drives Russia and retail stocks have performed similar to our bank stocks. Anotherwards, retail is the Russia market leader and I like that.
In conclusion - I am going global - very soon - and want commodity related names
Away from that, I have been research emerging markets and believe that Brazil, Chile, Austraila, and Russia are my favorite while Sweden seems like Short. In fact, "birds from far away" are saying that Goldman Sachs is telling clients a pair trade: Long Russia Short Norway - if you want the Bloomberg codes, email me.
Brazil - Has a huge run but the broad way to play it is EWZ. VALE just got upgrades by Goldman Sachs today (shocker we had it in August at $19 but..) the raised estimates and see $28 per share. They are telling big clients to buy Dec or Jan $28 calls. I personally don't like that call but I bought back shares today in my client's portfolio, not my personal. STD is another bank I own; however, the IPO did terrible today - very disappointing. If you ever want to study a sweet chart, pull up a March - Oct chart on STD lollllll it's insane! It's a good bank. This weekend I will release some of my findings.
Russia- A consumer driven economy. I have been buying RSX about 2 weeks ago, as I mentioned and am up 6%. I will be in and out but many are bearish on Russia - I am not. Housing related equities in Russia need to bounce but the consumer drives Russia and retail stocks have performed similar to our bank stocks. Anotherwards, retail is the Russia market leader and I like that.
In conclusion - I am going global - very soon - and want commodity related names
Market Outlook - Oct. 7
The market is bouncing from oversold levels, so I am hoping for one more up day then will sell into strength. After the bell we have big earnings from Alcoa, which is act as a big guide for how our economy is doing. Frankly, Yum Brands (YUM) had a great quarter yesterday after the close and I think that need to be looked at as well.
I presented my AAPL case yesterday, let me clean it up now, so it's readable lol. This blogger is making me mad, the new blog will be up in two weeks. I have been saying that forever but it's in test mode, everything is good to go!
One housekeeping item - research reports. I have got a few requests on BA, BAC, GE, GOOG, C, etc.. and have posted them on scribd and some here. I do not post all the Scribd uploads because it would make the blog look crazy; however, I am willing to accept research requests for this week. Just let me know which reports you want, this way:
1. Comment on here (it's sometimes weird)
2. A scribd message
3. A scribd comment
4. Email at trade247blog@gmail.com
Scribd is the best way - it's a pretty cool site and free. Just let me know if I missed any, just been crazy busy.
I presented my AAPL case yesterday, let me clean it up now, so it's readable lol. This blogger is making me mad, the new blog will be up in two weeks. I have been saying that forever but it's in test mode, everything is good to go!
One housekeeping item - research reports. I have got a few requests on BA, BAC, GE, GOOG, C, etc.. and have posted them on scribd and some here. I do not post all the Scribd uploads because it would make the blog look crazy; however, I am willing to accept research requests for this week. Just let me know which reports you want, this way:
1. Comment on here (it's sometimes weird)
2. A scribd message
3. A scribd comment
4. Email at trade247blog@gmail.com
Scribd is the best way - it's a pretty cool site and free. Just let me know if I missed any, just been crazy busy.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
RF's Apple Case
I got a quick minute and just want to discuss one of my recent purchase Apple (AAPL). Many are trying to get bearish on the stock; however, the stock is the KEY market leader in my view. Their case is that the consumer will weaken due to high unemployment and simply put, the weaker consumer cannot afford $3,000 Mac computers. My answer back is quite simply, if we are truly in a "depression" how in the world is Apple earning more money this year that last year? That too me is beyond incredible, we have unemployment at 9.8% (if you add in discouraged workers it's 16.7%) and Apple will make more profit this year, than last! Here is what I am seeing (and like): 1. The Iphone is the key product driver. The app store is driving revenue and the iPhone only has a 4% market share. The amazing thing is that it has a 4% market share, with only 1 carrier, that being AT&T. If the go to a Verizon network, the volume in iPhone shipments can double, if not triple. Let's talk facts: Last year the firm's revenue was $32.4B and iPhone Revenue was $1.8B. 2009 estimates, total revenue is looking to be $35.7B and Iphone revenue to be $6.7B! That is huge! 2010E revenue is to be $13.3B for the iPhone alone! And we haven't even started getting into China or North Korea with the phone, talk about amazing. Currently with 0% share in China and only 4% share in the USA, Apple can definetly grow. Also, another big kicker here - exclusivity expiration is soon. The AT&T exclusivity is not only in USA but they have exclusive agreements globally in Canada, Germany, Spain, and Japan. So if Apple picks up new carriers, they "could" do this globally, which could boost sales and profits dramatically! 2. The New Ipods are very good, the question is how well they will sell. It's tough to say and we need to see the quarter first - however, I believe with the relatively cheap price point for what you get (Video Camera, Podometer, Radio, like 4,000 songs of memory) the value is good - I just bought one last week and really enjoy it. 3. Great balance sheet. Apple has over $47 in net cash per share, so anotherwards, 25% of the current stock price is just cash alone. That being said, it has the growth to move higher. 4. New Products: There is a rumor that Apple will be revealing a new "Tablet" computer that acts as a Netbook and should be released by March. From my sources, the price point will be $800 and have touch screen capabilities. The innovation put into this device, could draw professional services, like hospitals due to the small size and easy computing. New Macs are supposed to debut soon as well. 5. Estimates seem low - The consensus is around $10 EPS adjusted for FY 2010. These numbers do not include possibilities of: 1) mulitple carriers 2) new products like the Tablet or MACS 3) new products from the APP store 4) any new iPhone 6. There are some cost reduction schemes also in play: 1) the new GAAP accounting rule changes the way Ipods and Iphones are valued, which will raise both revenues and profit. Secondly, they are working on strategies to reduction iPhone hardware and service plans. All of this will can help improve gross margins. All in all, I will be in and out of the name but this will be my top position going forward. It is a tad rich but the dips must be bought and i will post all of my Apple trades. The risks include: 1) Steve Jobs health 2) Competition from RIMM, PALM, and MOT. 3) Being able to meet demand 4) staying with only one carrier. I think the company can earn $11 to $12 EPS next year (analysts are looking for $9.70-$10). If you use an historical average PE multiple of 25x earnings you get (11 x 25 = $275 Price Target). This is all my opinion and $11-12 is extremly agressive and they will need to catch a few of these catalysts. However, the risk is the consumer. Unemployment is a high risk and consumer spending could crush the stock down to the $120-$150 range if spending is very weak. This is strictly my opinion, not recommendation advice, all rights are reserved by RF.
AAPL
52 week high!
Other notes, holding everything, very disappointed in FLR but don't want to book a loss. Will hold it out a tad longer. Not buying here, may sell some stuff - I will be focusing on options throughout the new few months
NTRI- massive short squeeze LOL
FDO - reports tomorrow, its cheap
Other notes, holding everything, very disappointed in FLR but don't want to book a loss. Will hold it out a tad longer. Not buying here, may sell some stuff - I will be focusing on options throughout the new few months
NTRI- massive short squeeze LOL
FDO - reports tomorrow, its cheap
Monday, October 5, 2009
Market Outlook - Oct 5th
Future are indicating a tiny bounce; however, we have some key earnings this weekend:
Tuesday: Yum Brands (YUM) and Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG)
Wednesday: Family Dollar (FDO), Costco (COST), Aloca (AA), and Monsanto (MON)
Thursday: Marriott (Mar) and Pepsi Co (PEP)
I will hold my Pepsi shares through earnings and will increase my position on any weakness. Other than that, I am about 40% and will add more on dips then sell some of these loser stocks, like HON and build position in stocks I know and like more - in terms of upside potential and better risk rewards.
Tuesday: Yum Brands (YUM) and Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG)
Wednesday: Family Dollar (FDO), Costco (COST), Aloca (AA), and Monsanto (MON)
Thursday: Marriott (Mar) and Pepsi Co (PEP)
I will hold my Pepsi shares through earnings and will increase my position on any weakness. Other than that, I am about 40% and will add more on dips then sell some of these loser stocks, like HON and build position in stocks I know and like more - in terms of upside potential and better risk rewards.
Friday, October 2, 2009
Mistakes ,,, Mistakes
Well, I made the mistake of hoping alot semiconductors and overpaid for many of them, partculary MU. I haven't sold a share and believe the DRAM pricing has stabilzing and will benefit them greatly. Unfortunately, I have whacked away alot of my cash reserve and currenly only have 40% cash. If we dip seriiously, I will cover my shorts and deploy capital agressviely. As for shorting, I rather catch a strong rip before I do. The job's report was utterly terrible - over 100,000 more jobs lost than expected. It's hard to be a bull, given job losses. However, I am a big believer in a small niche of stocks and will sell of alot of my holdings soon - to reload a smaller concentration of my holdings and others. I took a position in STLD - believing it was be smacked since the GS downgrade the other day. I think it's worth $18 low end and $22 high end; however, China is facing oversupply issues, which will put pressure on shippers, iron ore miners, and steel companies. Instead of shorting them, I will take this time to build positions in them - for a longer duration trade. AAPL is smoking and i think will rip higher - I put 6% of my portfolio in Apple today and will add more on dips. BAC is another big bet i will play. I want the stock to drop to $15 and i will LOAD up on it. All in all, i am keeping cash reserves and I am buyer, rather than a seller here due to the oversold indicators. I said since 800, we would see 1050 and that was my sell target - that trade is over, I will be more selective and use options more agressively and buy dips. Tech season will heat up soon, it always does in Nov-Dec - I want semiconductors: NSM, ENTR, and MU are good picks, along with AMAT. Banks need a pullback and i will load up in serious size. I need to clear some of the junk in my book but want a bounce first - don't like selling on low days.
Jobs
Horrible, lost 263,000 vs. 173,000 estimate! Not time to play around, buy solid companies with good funamentals - like AAPL that just got upgraded with $265 Price Target! I will post report later. Cash is key
Position Update: PEP
Barclays Capital today removes Kraft (KFT) from top Food pick and adds Pepisco (PEP) as top Food pick!
Booyah!
Booyah!
Market Outlook - October 2
Well, yesterday was pretty rough - even with some shorts, i got knocked around pretty good. Semiconductors got hit the hardest but I believe that the semiconductors trade is alive in well. I will use this dip to buy semis. In addition, I will take this dip as an opportunity to build an position in AAPL, which i will buy right now in pre-market. I will add steel too on this dip.
All in all, is that I have boatloads of cash and will put it to work. Now, is not the time to be "all-in" on stocks, with no cash because the economy is a little weak and ISM (sign of productivity) was weaker than previous months - hence the selling.
All in all, we are in a correction mode but it's hard to see how "deep" it will be.
Jobs reports at 8:30a - will guide the day.
All in all, is that I have boatloads of cash and will put it to work. Now, is not the time to be "all-in" on stocks, with no cash because the economy is a little weak and ISM (sign of productivity) was weaker than previous months - hence the selling.
All in all, we are in a correction mode but it's hard to see how "deep" it will be.
Jobs reports at 8:30a - will guide the day.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
ISM
The Institute for Supply Management’s September index fell to 52.6 from 52.9 in August, a weaker-than-expected reading, which will add to market concerns about the speed of recovery. The data suggest “peak upward momentum” has passed in leading indicators of cyclical activity. In September, the most-heavily weighted new orders component fell to 60.8 from 64.9 in August. The August reading had reached the highest level since April 2004, and all else constant, was consistent with a 6% pace of overall GDP growth. But this overstated the pace of improvement in other parts of the economy away from a snap back in manufacturing, particularly the trend demand pace. Among other components, production fell to 55.7 from 61.9, while backlogs rose to 53.5 from 52.5. Supplier delivery times (a member of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators) rose to 58.0 from 57.1. Inventories fell at a slower pace, with the index at 42.5 (still well below a break-even 50), from 34.4 in August. Employment fell to 46.2 from 46.4. According to the ISM report, “while the rate of growth moderated slightly whencompared with August, the recovery broadened as the number of industries reporting growth increased from 11 to 13 (of 18).
RF Buys and Sells
Sold out of TSYS at 8.28 for 3.5% wins
Buy 100 more shares of NSM at 13.66
The market is selling of with the ISM number, be safe here
Buy 100 more shares of NSM at 13.66
The market is selling of with the ISM number, be safe here
BAC - CEO Ken Lewis Leaving
BAC
Sad story here - Ken Lewis did nothing wrong in my eyes and told the truth...now he is canned for it.
Sad story here - Ken Lewis did nothing wrong in my eyes and told the truth...now he is canned for it.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Market Recap
What a moody day on the street - MU got praises across the board and the stock sold off today. I posted some reports on it but for the most part here is a recap of MU earnings:
The shares are off a bit as investors lock in the 400% gains from the lows in March. In addition, management set a pessimistic tone for the pricing outlook for the current quarter, which probably spooked the traders as well. CEO Steve Appleton said that the market was still "challenging" but is "beginning to improve." Management also stated that DRAM product sales were up 28% sequentially, thanks to a 19% jump in sales volumes and an 8% increase in ASPs.
Revenue from NAND flash products were up 10% sequentially due to a 23% increase in sales volumes. This increase was partially offset by an 11% decrease in ASPs in NAND flash products.
Management stated that if pricing remains flat for the rest of the current quarter, Micron would benefit by a 5% increase in ASPs in both DRAM and NAND flash. The company said that it would be profitable in the November quarter. The expectations are for gross margins to expand significantly in the current quarter given cost per bit productions in the low to mid teens for both DRAM and NAND, combined with our expectations for sequential average selling price for both products. All in all, good numbers and a return to profitability for Micron. I was surprised to see it trade lower.
As for the market in general, the Chicago PMI data was horrific this morning. It shows we have a weak consumer and a slowing productivity. If earnings are weak this quarter, we could lose 100-150 points on the S&P, due to the high expectations. We need some solid revenues this time. In addition, there has been alot of thought and talk on deflation. Pimco's Bill Gross is one of the best investors of all time and said he is buying long bonds. That floors me honestly because he is either 1) shorting other type of bonds and hedging or 2) he is betting on deflation. The General Mills (GIS) quarter had a deflationary flavor to it. Only 6% of professional investors believe deflation is a threat and in my view, I think deflation is more of a problem than inflation. If deflation hits, load up by buying TLT and short every energy and commodity stock in sight.
The shares are off a bit as investors lock in the 400% gains from the lows in March. In addition, management set a pessimistic tone for the pricing outlook for the current quarter, which probably spooked the traders as well. CEO Steve Appleton said that the market was still "challenging" but is "beginning to improve." Management also stated that DRAM product sales were up 28% sequentially, thanks to a 19% jump in sales volumes and an 8% increase in ASPs.
Revenue from NAND flash products were up 10% sequentially due to a 23% increase in sales volumes. This increase was partially offset by an 11% decrease in ASPs in NAND flash products.
Management stated that if pricing remains flat for the rest of the current quarter, Micron would benefit by a 5% increase in ASPs in both DRAM and NAND flash. The company said that it would be profitable in the November quarter. The expectations are for gross margins to expand significantly in the current quarter given cost per bit productions in the low to mid teens for both DRAM and NAND, combined with our expectations for sequential average selling price for both products. All in all, good numbers and a return to profitability for Micron. I was surprised to see it trade lower.
As for the market in general, the Chicago PMI data was horrific this morning. It shows we have a weak consumer and a slowing productivity. If earnings are weak this quarter, we could lose 100-150 points on the S&P, due to the high expectations. We need some solid revenues this time. In addition, there has been alot of thought and talk on deflation. Pimco's Bill Gross is one of the best investors of all time and said he is buying long bonds. That floors me honestly because he is either 1) shorting other type of bonds and hedging or 2) he is betting on deflation. The General Mills (GIS) quarter had a deflationary flavor to it. Only 6% of professional investors believe deflation is a threat and in my view, I think deflation is more of a problem than inflation. If deflation hits, load up by buying TLT and short every energy and commodity stock in sight.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
H1N1 FLU Analysis
H1N1 Flu
Special request for my good buddy J aka the president of the Tony "can I pass more than 8 yards" Romo Fan Club
Special request for my good buddy J aka the president of the Tony "can I pass more than 8 yards" Romo Fan Club
RF Update
MU - Quarter was good as I suspected. Traded sharply in after hours but now it's selling off - my guess is that guidance is weak, but I haven't listened to the conference call yet.
Shippers (DRYS and GNK) - Ripping...supply is concerning after all the steel/iron ore reports are showing slowing demand. Will hold out for a while.
NSM - Bears fear TXN is stealing all the share and there is no growth. I disagree with the first argument and the second argument is fair - they don't have the growth like a MCHP. I will add more on dips.
Shippers (DRYS and GNK) - Ripping...supply is concerning after all the steel/iron ore reports are showing slowing demand. Will hold out for a while.
NSM - Bears fear TXN is stealing all the share and there is no growth. I disagree with the first argument and the second argument is fair - they don't have the growth like a MCHP. I will add more on dips.
RF Buy MU
Bought 300 more now into earnings today
I might lose, warning!
You knew what happened with AMD!
I might lose, warning!
You knew what happened with AMD!
General Electric (GE)
GE 9.29
Even with all of the "love" - I remain VERY skeptical on GE. When Jack Welch left in 2000, the stock was $56 a share. Since Jeffrey "boy" Immelt stepped in, the stock went from $56 (from his start) to $5.50 this year and now is at $16. I honestly don't know how he has a job to be honest. It's sad that a 9 year shareholder is down over 70% on their investment.
Even with all of the "love" - I remain VERY skeptical on GE. When Jack Welch left in 2000, the stock was $56 a share. Since Jeffrey "boy" Immelt stepped in, the stock went from $56 (from his start) to $5.50 this year and now is at $16. I honestly don't know how he has a job to be honest. It's sad that a 9 year shareholder is down over 70% on their investment.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Follow RF on Scribd!
Scribd is a cool place where you can upload documents and share files. I have setup my TRADE247 account and you can "subscribe" to me for FREE. Signing up for Scribd is free, just go to http://www.scribd.com/ and get a user name. To find me, go to:
www.scribd.com/trade247 and just click subscribe to trade247 and everytime you log-in, all of my recent uploads will be there to view. This research reports are very rare and may not be sharing them for a long but I will have a fee-based service coming where they will be present. Research houses, like Citigroup, cost as much as $10,000 a month to subscribe to, so needless to say, the information is valuable. Like I said early along time ago, my goal off this blog is not to be rich but just for fun and make some cash on the way. I do have some overhead, so when I mean "fee-based" just means some sort of donation - it does or does not have to be major - i know some people who follow have tons of cash, some don't - I am not in this in for money, just for a good time and if you learn something - it's worth it. But that is when that comes, not now - so enjoy the free research. Often times, I am reading about my next move and not buying, so I figure why not share some information to make us smarter? The new blog will be up in the next two weeks - so it will be improved and with a cleaner look.
(these files are also downloadable)
www.scribd.com/trade247 and just click subscribe to trade247 and everytime you log-in, all of my recent uploads will be there to view. This research reports are very rare and may not be sharing them for a long but I will have a fee-based service coming where they will be present. Research houses, like Citigroup, cost as much as $10,000 a month to subscribe to, so needless to say, the information is valuable. Like I said early along time ago, my goal off this blog is not to be rich but just for fun and make some cash on the way. I do have some overhead, so when I mean "fee-based" just means some sort of donation - it does or does not have to be major - i know some people who follow have tons of cash, some don't - I am not in this in for money, just for a good time and if you learn something - it's worth it. But that is when that comes, not now - so enjoy the free research. Often times, I am reading about my next move and not buying, so I figure why not share some information to make us smarter? The new blog will be up in the next two weeks - so it will be improved and with a cleaner look.
(these files are also downloadable)
Market Update
I am pretty much done for buying today. I'm alitte surprised we shot up today. Frankly, I knew we were approaching oversold territories but thought we might get another weak day then shoot up. If I was buying another - I would consider GLW. This would be more of a 6 month play but at $15 it's not bad. I think we might be able to get it cheaper, so I will wait to see if we get $14. DKS is another one I like, along with M. Both retaliers seem to have good traffic and are not getting big attention. RIMM is interesting as well. The problem with RIMM is revenues. They are setting prices so low and new products, so far, seem not to be the answer. There is so much competition in the market with Apple's Iphone, Motorla's Android, Nokia new smartphone, etc - that i just rather plays the instruments in the phone than the phone makers. I see RIMM in a neutral range of $60 - $80/$85. Low end is $50 - high end is $100. At $67, I see $7 down loss, +$18 up for gain at current levels. So, that is the risk reward that I see. MU is strong - I wouldn't want to be short going into earnings, unless they (the shorts) know something I don't. If you want a "chart dice roll" - ABT might be worth a scalp but I have no position
Market Outlook - Sept 28th
Futures look to be rebounding; however, we may correct a bit more. We are approaching oversold levels, so I believe it's safe to start "nibbling" at these levels then scale into more over time. I am looking at stocks that I feel are cheap regardless, but also have cash to cost average down.
NSM - will continue to add more on dips
MU - Earnings 9/29 - I suspect earnings will be strong since they are gaining pricing strength. I own 400 shares but may add more. My only concern is that the stock is near a 52-high - however, I think that earnings will be great and it can print at least $10 in time. The semiconductor index is far from over, in it's amazing run.
RTP - Starting to get attractive again. I will wait for a further dip and take back my position. The surplus in steel, iron ore, and coal are putting pressure on shippers and iron ore firms, making it good buy now for 6+ months from now. I think the downside will continue near-term for a slight bit.
NSM - will continue to add more on dips
MU - Earnings 9/29 - I suspect earnings will be strong since they are gaining pricing strength. I own 400 shares but may add more. My only concern is that the stock is near a 52-high - however, I think that earnings will be great and it can print at least $10 in time. The semiconductor index is far from over, in it's amazing run.
RTP - Starting to get attractive again. I will wait for a further dip and take back my position. The surplus in steel, iron ore, and coal are putting pressure on shippers and iron ore firms, making it good buy now for 6+ months from now. I think the downside will continue near-term for a slight bit.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Friday, September 25, 2009
Market Outlook
With investors starting to get a little scared since the U.S. dollar run on Wednesday at 2:30pm EST, I suspect the selling pressure may continue for a little bit longer. Now, more than ever, is the time to conduct personal portfolio holdings, as many stocks have really reached max potential. If you are looking at a charts and hold stock XYZ at $20 and are waiting for it go to back to $80 like it was in 2007, that is NOT the best strategy. The market has 3 elements to it: 1) Sentiment 2) Valuation 3) Fundamentals. Currently, the market’s overly bullish sentiment and rich valuation is ahead of the fundamentals of our “jobless” economy. With that in mind, many short sellers have been blown out (including myself) shorting; however, they will try again and if they win, many will short aggressively, crushing this market an easy 8-10% and equities can tank.
Some food for thought:
1. I have a basket of portfolio holdings – some long-term, some dicerolls. I know the companies well enough to smack the CEO if I had to, so if they are reading, beware. I recommend listening to the conference calls of the stocks you own or go to Google Finance and keep up with the companies to ensure fundamentals are intact – and see what the analysts are saying. All of my buys are heavily researched, so I weigh the risk/reward then purchase.
2. Move into names of quality. The “sh*t” stocks have done enough – look for solid companies that investors have ignored that have strong global sales bases. Proctor and Gamble is a great one.
3. Stay diversified unless you know what you the game. I really don’t diversify but it is smart to if you want to reduce risk. The S&P has sector weights, so I will build the model this weekend and show.
4. Keep high cash levels and use that cash to cost average down into good companies.
Portfolio Holdings That I Currently Own:
BAC, F, PEP, Short QQQQ, TWM, UNG, Long AIG puts, Short FRO puts, ENTR, WY, HES, FIG, PG, TSYS, DRYS, ERTS, NSM, MU, SNV, FLR, HON
BAC, F, PEP, PG, WY I will hold forever – the rest are really just trades and can be sold instantly.
Some food for thought:
1. I have a basket of portfolio holdings – some long-term, some dicerolls. I know the companies well enough to smack the CEO if I had to, so if they are reading, beware. I recommend listening to the conference calls of the stocks you own or go to Google Finance and keep up with the companies to ensure fundamentals are intact – and see what the analysts are saying. All of my buys are heavily researched, so I weigh the risk/reward then purchase.
2. Move into names of quality. The “sh*t” stocks have done enough – look for solid companies that investors have ignored that have strong global sales bases. Proctor and Gamble is a great one.
3. Stay diversified unless you know what you the game. I really don’t diversify but it is smart to if you want to reduce risk. The S&P has sector weights, so I will build the model this weekend and show.
4. Keep high cash levels and use that cash to cost average down into good companies.
Portfolio Holdings That I Currently Own:
BAC, F, PEP, Short QQQQ, TWM, UNG, Long AIG puts, Short FRO puts, ENTR, WY, HES, FIG, PG, TSYS, DRYS, ERTS, NSM, MU, SNV, FLR, HON
BAC, F, PEP, PG, WY I will hold forever – the rest are really just trades and can be sold instantly.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
feedback
In response to emails on view of market is that I believe this looks to be a 3 to 5 % correction, probably (not sure) nothing more. I will buy cheap stocks that I think will buy higher regardless. If RIMM crushes numbers after the bell, the nasdaq will rip tommorow
My favorite longs are MU, NSM, MO, PG, and for gamble bets FIG, DRYS, ARM, look good
ESS and iyr are the best shorts, but no need to add here. I have massive cash hoards, and will buy this dip on scale and ride my way to a 300 % return
In conclusion, carry on fine women and men of Trade 247, drink and be marry
My favorite longs are MU, NSM, MO, PG, and for gamble bets FIG, DRYS, ARM, look good
ESS and iyr are the best shorts, but no need to add here. I have massive cash hoards, and will buy this dip on scale and ride my way to a 300 % return
In conclusion, carry on fine women and men of Trade 247, drink and be marry
Market
I got boatloads of cash and will buy dips.
This could last a few days but I would just keep high cash and buy things you like.
This could last a few days but I would just keep high cash and buy things you like.
Housekeeping Items - ERTS GME
Gamestop (GME) - Sony PS3 sales have grown 300% since price cut and Nintendo just made a price cut today, cutting the WII to $199! This is great news for GME - too bad I sold at $22 but GME should run to at least $30 given Christmas and this good news.
Electronic Arts (ERTS) - Microsoft just released a press release saying they are NOT interested in buying ERTS. I didn't buy it based on this but on fundmentals. I will add more in scale over time. http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE58N1EK20090924
Electronic Arts (ERTS) - Microsoft just released a press release saying they are NOT interested in buying ERTS. I didn't buy it based on this but on fundmentals. I will add more in scale over time. http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE58N1EK20090924
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
QCOM
I am buying this one for the 4G-Mobile Internet portfolio now. Near-term I am not expecting much as investors will chase high beta plays like SWKS or RFMD but long-term, the valuation is fair and will buy here for a long-term period. 40 shares at low $44's now
Market Outlook - September 23
Hope all is well - been out of town over these few days but have been posting. As for the market, it looks to be moving sideways with 3Q earnings starting now. General Mills (GIS) just destroyed earnings and raised guidance this morning, which is a good sign to me for Proctor & Gamble (PG), as well as the consumer since the strong earnings may be indicating consumers are spending more on branded products.
As for value in this market, it's hard to find but I am finding stuff I want to buy. I added some Global Construction Industrial yesterday in FLR and will add another Industrial today, to have 3 in total. Currently HON and FLR are my 2 industrials. I will also add some semiconductors. I add MU last week, in healthy size and believe it will march higher.
I will also add to my WY below cost and PG. I believe PEP and PG should trade higher by Christmas and pays great dividends. WY is tied to the economy and housing, so if we tank, it will tank; however, I think it could explode to the upside.
Other retailers/services I am looking at are: HD, EBAY, and LOW.
As for value in this market, it's hard to find but I am finding stuff I want to buy. I added some Global Construction Industrial yesterday in FLR and will add another Industrial today, to have 3 in total. Currently HON and FLR are my 2 industrials. I will also add some semiconductors. I add MU last week, in healthy size and believe it will march higher.
I will also add to my WY below cost and PG. I believe PEP and PG should trade higher by Christmas and pays great dividends. WY is tied to the economy and housing, so if we tank, it will tank; however, I think it could explode to the upside.
Other retailers/services I am looking at are: HD, EBAY, and LOW.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
RF Buys PEP,FLR,SNV
Added to PEP today in long portfolio and bought 2011 $70 calls at $1.90.
Added to SNV at $3.90' Bought 30 shares of FLR at $55.10 .
AMD is making me sick!
Added to SNV at $3.90' Bought 30 shares of FLR at $55.10 .
AMD is making me sick!
Monday, September 21, 2009
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