AAPL Upgraded 8-13
Note: This is a "sneek peek" preview of the up and coming "research lab".
Disclosure: RF does not AAPL position.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Weekend Reading - Mortgages...Worse Really Over?
Mortgages
Note: The top right "toggle" button in right upper corner of document screen, allows you to zoom in.
Source: Deustche Bank
Note: The top right "toggle" button in right upper corner of document screen, allows you to zoom in.
Source: Deustche Bank
Friday, August 14, 2009
Analyist upgrades and downgrades
CHANGE IN RATINGS
Advance Auto Parts upgraded at Morgan Joseph8:51 AM EDT Rating on AAP was raised to Buy, Morgan Joseph said. Company continues to grow earnings, despite sluggish comp saies. $52 price target.
AMB Property upgraded at Goldman8:36 AM EDT Goldman upgraded AMB to Neutral from Sell due to improved liquidity. Increased target price to $20 from $15.
Amgen downgraded at Citigroup9:00 AM EDT Citigroup downgraded AMGN to Hold from Buy. Cites the FDA's panel decision to be cautious on dmab. Dmab was supposed to be very influential for the co. but will instead be adopted modestly. The FDA panel was concerned with dmab's impact on tumor progressions. Decreased target price to $68 from $71.
Amgen numbers lowered at UBS8:23 AM EDT AMGN target was cut to $63, UBS said. Estimates also reduced, to reflect a mixed FDA advisory committee decision. Neutral rating.
Avery Dennison upgraded at JP Morgan7:34 AM EDT AVY upgraded at JP Morgan. Rating raised to Overweight from Neutral. Price target raised to $33 from $25. Maintains 2009 EPS estimates of -$7.70.
Barnes & Noble downgraded at Credit Suisse7:22 AM EDT Credit Suisse downgraded BKS to Underperform from Neutral. The firm believes that recent acquisition of Barnes & Noble College Booksellers significantly raises the risk profile and takes away the free cash that could have been used for a dividend. Maintained target price at $15.
Citigroup estimates cut, target raised at UBS8:25 AM EDT Shares of C now seen reaching $4.25, UBS said. On the other hand, estimates were also lowered, because of a murky outlook for near-term risks. Neutral rating.
Citigroup upgraded at Merrill/BofA7:58 AM EDT Rating on C was raised from Underperform to Buy, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. $5.575 price target. Credit quality is stabilizing, and there is limited downside to book value.
Columbia Sportswear upgraded at Barclays8:32 AM EDT COLM was upgraded from Equal-weight to Overweight, Barclays Capital said. $45 price target. Focus on innovation is gaining traction with retailers and should begin to boost profits by 2010.
Genworth Financial downgraded at Citigroup9:00 AM EDT Citigroup downgraded GNW to Sell from Hold. The ratings decrease reflects the recent run up in the life and mortgage insurance sectors which makes the co.'s shares unattractive due to its uncertain earnings outlook and capital position. Increased target price to $6 from $4.
Gap upgraded at Wedbush Morgan8:54 AM EDT GPS was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral, Wedbush Morgan said. $23 price target. Checks suggest stronger sales at Gap and Old Navy.
King Pharmaceuticals downgraded at Needham8:57 AM EDT KG was downgraded from Buy to Hold, Needham said. Stock was already pricing in approval of Embeda.
King Pharmaceuticals target raised at UBS8:22 AM EDT Shares of KG now seen reaching $12, according to UBS. Embeda approval is great news, but was expected. Buy rating.
Men's Wearhouse upgraded at Wedbush Morgan9:02 AM EDT MW was upgraded from Neutral to Outperform, Wedbush Morgan said. $29 price target. Checks sales that sales and earnings are poised to recover.
Phillips Van Heusen upgraded at JP Morgan8:15 AM EDT PVH upgraded at JP Morgan. Rating raised to Overweight from Neutral. Price target raised to $37 from $27. 2009 EPS estimates raised to $2.35 from $2.28.
Regions Financial upgraded at Merrill/BofA7:57 AM EDT RF was upgraded from Neutral to Buy, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. $7 price target. Company has a sizbale capital cushion, relative to smaller peers.
SL Green Realty downgraded at Goldman8:36 AM EDT Goldman downgraded SLG to Neutral from Buy as the stock has reached the firm's target and believes that there is limited upside potential. Increased price target to $24 from $23.
Sunpower rated new Buy at Needham8:53 AM EDT Coverage of SPWRA was started with a Buy rating, Needham said. $36 price target. Company has developed several long-term competitive advantages.
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STOCK COMMENTS / EPS CHANGES
Alliance Data numbers raised at Barclays8:30 AM EDT Shares of ADS now seen reaching $68, according to Barclays Capital. Estimates also boosted, to reflect the purchase of the CHRS credit card portfolio. Overweight rating.
Autodesk numbers raised at Credit Suisse7:23 AM EDT Credit Suisse raised its numbers on ADSK to $22.50 from $18 after showing signs of stabilization and beating their estimates in Q2. Maintained Neutral rating.
Dell estimates lowered at Goldman8:35 AM EDT Goldman lowered its estimates on DELL for FY09 to $1.02 from $1.05. The co. is likely to be the main beneficiary of an upcoming corporate PC upgrade cycle and these better volumes, combined with the company's greater operating leverage, should drive its earnings and the stock higher. Maintained Buy rating.
Dr. Pepper Snapple Group target raised at Goldman8:35 AM EDT Goldman raised DPS target price to $30 from $27. Cites a more 2009-loaded commodity relief, increased marketing spend in 2H2009, and currency benefits in 2010. Estimates for FY09 raised to $1.96 from $1.81. Maintained Buy rating.
Dr. Pepper Snapple numbers raised at Merrill/BofA8:03 AM EDT DPS estimates were increased through 2010, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. Company seeing lower input costs and a smaller tax rate. Buy rating and new $29 price target.
DeVry target raised at Credit Suisse7:22 AM EDT Credit Suisse raised its target price on DV to $50 from $44. Cites steady growth and high quality profile. Maintained Neutral rating.
Hewlett-Packard numbers raised at Merrill/BofA7:59 AM EDT Shares of HPQ now seen reaching $52, according to Merrill Lynch/Bank of America. Estimates were also boosted, to reflect improving end-market demand. Buy rating.
Nordstrom numbers raised at Goldman8:34 AM EDT Goldman raised its numbers on JWN to $27 from $24 to reflect better margins and credit. Estimates for FY09 raised to $1.60 from $1.49. Maintained Neutral rating.
Nordstrom target raised at Credit Suisse7:24 AM EDT Credit Suisse raised its target price on JWN to $25 from $22. The firm expects the co.'s comps to improve in the 2H09, better gross margins, and lower SG&A. Maintained Neutral rating.
Las Vegas Sands target boosted at Merrill/BofA8:02 AM EDT Shares of LVS now seen reaching $14, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. Amended credit agreement in Macau is the next step toward an IPO. Neutral rating.
Medidata Solutions numbers raised at Credit Suisse7:23 AM EDT Credit Suisse raised its numbers on MDSO to $24 from $23 to reflect the strong fundamentals in the qtr and their revised lower share count due to the timing of the IPO. Maintained Outperform rating.
Pride International target raised at Goldman8:34 AM EDT Goldman raised its target price on PDE to $33 from $32. The firm sees potential for some consolidation in the oil services/drillers sector, mainly of "pure-play" companies exposed to specific niches such as deepwater drilling and onshore/offshore completions. Maintained Neutral rating.
Progress Energy target lowered at Goldman8:34 AM EDT Goldman lowered its target price on PGN to $36 from $37. The decrease of numbers reflects 2Q2009 earnings, lower debt issuance in 2009, and lower O&M costs due to the approved deferral of pension expenses in Florida. Estimates for FY09 raised to $2.91 from $2.90. Maintained Neutral rating.
ProLogis target raised at Goldman8:33 AM EDT Goldman raised its target on PLD to $7 from $6. The firm sees higher potential dilution from each of the co.'s deleveraging efforts. Estimates for FY09 lowered to $1.34 from $1.36. Maintained Sell rating.
Sears Holdings target raised at Credit Suisse7:22 AM EDT Credit Suisse raised its target price on SHLD to $40 from $20. The raise in numbers reflects the combination of easing comparisons against weak comps and steep markdowns last year, competitor closings, its own store closings, some traction with some of its recent promotions, numerous supplier/other retailer beats and more positive appliance channel checks. Maintained Underperform rating.
Telmex target raised at Goldman8:33 AM EDT Goldman said it is raising TMX target price to $16.20 from $15.50. As volatility recedes, investors can focus on the long term intrinsic value of the company. Estimates for FY09 raised to $1.67 from $1.65. Maintained Neutral rating.
Urban Outfitters numbers boosted at FBR7:27 AM EDT Shares of URBN now seen reaching $30, according to Friedman, Billings Ramsey. Estimates also increased, to reflect a better mix shift, focusing on its own brands. Market Perform rating.
URS target lowered at Goldman8:33 AM EDT Goldman lowered its target price on URS to $51 from $53. The co. beat its 2Q expectations but disappointed on the total number of awards it announced. Estimates lowered for FY09 to $2.90 from $3. Maintained Neutral rating.
URS Corp. target raised at Credit Suisse7:24 AM EDT Credit Suisse raised its target price on URS to $47 from $44. An increase in backlog and benefits from the stimulus package should help position the company strategically for 2010. Maintained Neutral rating.
Wal-Mart estimates raised at Goldman8:35 AM EDT Goldman raised its estimates at Goldman to $3.58 from $3.55 for FY09 to reflect the 2Q beat due to expense cuts which pushed margins higher. Maintained Neutral rating.
Wal-Mart estimates raised at UBS8:27 AM EDT WMT estimates were increased through 2011, UBS said. Company is realizing a higher gross margin. Buy rating and $62 price target.
Weyerhaeuser target lowered at Barclays8:29 AM EDT Shares of WY now seen reaching $51, Barclays Capital said. Company may have received a lower price by making a small sale of its Oregon timberlands. Overweight rating.
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STRATEGY CALLS / MARKET CALLS
Selected REITS downgraded at UBS6:34 AM EDT Selected REITS downgraded at UBS. BXP rating lowered from Neutral to Sell. EQR rating lowered to Sell from Neutral. TCO rating lowered from Neutral to Sell. KIM rating lowered from Neutral to Sell. WRI rating lowered from Neutral from Sell.
Goldman raised its target price on Natural Gas E&Ps8:32 AM EDT Goldman said it is raising its target price on E&Ps to reflect the probability of consolidation. Devon Energy (DVN) target raised $78 from $76. Maintained Buy rating. Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) target raised to $38 from $37. Maintained Neutral rating. EOG Resources (EOG) target raised to $85 from $83. Maintained Buy rating. Newfield Exploration (NFX) target raised to $48 from $47. Maintained Buy rating.
Goldman adjusts target prices for REITs8:36 AM EDT Goldman adjusted its target prices for REITS as the CRE funding market improves but states that there is still a long road to recovery. Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) target raised to $48 from $46. Maintained Neutral rating. UDR (UDR) target raised its numbers on UDR to $10 from $9. Maintained Neutral rating. The Macerich Co. (MAC) numbers raised to $20 from $14. Maintained Neutral rating. Liberty Property (LRY) target raised to $23 from $21. Maintained Neutral rating. Federal Realty Investment (FRT) numbers raised to $45 from $42. Estimates for FY09 lowered to $3.76 from $3.84. Maintained Sell rating.
Advance Auto Parts upgraded at Morgan Joseph8:51 AM EDT Rating on AAP was raised to Buy, Morgan Joseph said. Company continues to grow earnings, despite sluggish comp saies. $52 price target.
AMB Property upgraded at Goldman8:36 AM EDT Goldman upgraded AMB to Neutral from Sell due to improved liquidity. Increased target price to $20 from $15.
Amgen downgraded at Citigroup9:00 AM EDT Citigroup downgraded AMGN to Hold from Buy. Cites the FDA's panel decision to be cautious on dmab. Dmab was supposed to be very influential for the co. but will instead be adopted modestly. The FDA panel was concerned with dmab's impact on tumor progressions. Decreased target price to $68 from $71.
Amgen numbers lowered at UBS8:23 AM EDT AMGN target was cut to $63, UBS said. Estimates also reduced, to reflect a mixed FDA advisory committee decision. Neutral rating.
Avery Dennison upgraded at JP Morgan7:34 AM EDT AVY upgraded at JP Morgan. Rating raised to Overweight from Neutral. Price target raised to $33 from $25. Maintains 2009 EPS estimates of -$7.70.
Barnes & Noble downgraded at Credit Suisse7:22 AM EDT Credit Suisse downgraded BKS to Underperform from Neutral. The firm believes that recent acquisition of Barnes & Noble College Booksellers significantly raises the risk profile and takes away the free cash that could have been used for a dividend. Maintained target price at $15.
Citigroup estimates cut, target raised at UBS8:25 AM EDT Shares of C now seen reaching $4.25, UBS said. On the other hand, estimates were also lowered, because of a murky outlook for near-term risks. Neutral rating.
Citigroup upgraded at Merrill/BofA7:58 AM EDT Rating on C was raised from Underperform to Buy, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. $5.575 price target. Credit quality is stabilizing, and there is limited downside to book value.
Columbia Sportswear upgraded at Barclays8:32 AM EDT COLM was upgraded from Equal-weight to Overweight, Barclays Capital said. $45 price target. Focus on innovation is gaining traction with retailers and should begin to boost profits by 2010.
Genworth Financial downgraded at Citigroup9:00 AM EDT Citigroup downgraded GNW to Sell from Hold. The ratings decrease reflects the recent run up in the life and mortgage insurance sectors which makes the co.'s shares unattractive due to its uncertain earnings outlook and capital position. Increased target price to $6 from $4.
Gap upgraded at Wedbush Morgan8:54 AM EDT GPS was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral, Wedbush Morgan said. $23 price target. Checks suggest stronger sales at Gap and Old Navy.
King Pharmaceuticals downgraded at Needham8:57 AM EDT KG was downgraded from Buy to Hold, Needham said. Stock was already pricing in approval of Embeda.
King Pharmaceuticals target raised at UBS8:22 AM EDT Shares of KG now seen reaching $12, according to UBS. Embeda approval is great news, but was expected. Buy rating.
Men's Wearhouse upgraded at Wedbush Morgan9:02 AM EDT MW was upgraded from Neutral to Outperform, Wedbush Morgan said. $29 price target. Checks sales that sales and earnings are poised to recover.
Phillips Van Heusen upgraded at JP Morgan8:15 AM EDT PVH upgraded at JP Morgan. Rating raised to Overweight from Neutral. Price target raised to $37 from $27. 2009 EPS estimates raised to $2.35 from $2.28.
Regions Financial upgraded at Merrill/BofA7:57 AM EDT RF was upgraded from Neutral to Buy, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. $7 price target. Company has a sizbale capital cushion, relative to smaller peers.
SL Green Realty downgraded at Goldman8:36 AM EDT Goldman downgraded SLG to Neutral from Buy as the stock has reached the firm's target and believes that there is limited upside potential. Increased price target to $24 from $23.
Sunpower rated new Buy at Needham8:53 AM EDT Coverage of SPWRA was started with a Buy rating, Needham said. $36 price target. Company has developed several long-term competitive advantages.
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STOCK COMMENTS / EPS CHANGES
Alliance Data numbers raised at Barclays8:30 AM EDT Shares of ADS now seen reaching $68, according to Barclays Capital. Estimates also boosted, to reflect the purchase of the CHRS credit card portfolio. Overweight rating.
Autodesk numbers raised at Credit Suisse7:23 AM EDT Credit Suisse raised its numbers on ADSK to $22.50 from $18 after showing signs of stabilization and beating their estimates in Q2. Maintained Neutral rating.
Dell estimates lowered at Goldman8:35 AM EDT Goldman lowered its estimates on DELL for FY09 to $1.02 from $1.05. The co. is likely to be the main beneficiary of an upcoming corporate PC upgrade cycle and these better volumes, combined with the company's greater operating leverage, should drive its earnings and the stock higher. Maintained Buy rating.
Dr. Pepper Snapple Group target raised at Goldman8:35 AM EDT Goldman raised DPS target price to $30 from $27. Cites a more 2009-loaded commodity relief, increased marketing spend in 2H2009, and currency benefits in 2010. Estimates for FY09 raised to $1.96 from $1.81. Maintained Buy rating.
Dr. Pepper Snapple numbers raised at Merrill/BofA8:03 AM EDT DPS estimates were increased through 2010, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. Company seeing lower input costs and a smaller tax rate. Buy rating and new $29 price target.
DeVry target raised at Credit Suisse7:22 AM EDT Credit Suisse raised its target price on DV to $50 from $44. Cites steady growth and high quality profile. Maintained Neutral rating.
Hewlett-Packard numbers raised at Merrill/BofA7:59 AM EDT Shares of HPQ now seen reaching $52, according to Merrill Lynch/Bank of America. Estimates were also boosted, to reflect improving end-market demand. Buy rating.
Nordstrom numbers raised at Goldman8:34 AM EDT Goldman raised its numbers on JWN to $27 from $24 to reflect better margins and credit. Estimates for FY09 raised to $1.60 from $1.49. Maintained Neutral rating.
Nordstrom target raised at Credit Suisse7:24 AM EDT Credit Suisse raised its target price on JWN to $25 from $22. The firm expects the co.'s comps to improve in the 2H09, better gross margins, and lower SG&A. Maintained Neutral rating.
Las Vegas Sands target boosted at Merrill/BofA8:02 AM EDT Shares of LVS now seen reaching $14, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. Amended credit agreement in Macau is the next step toward an IPO. Neutral rating.
Medidata Solutions numbers raised at Credit Suisse7:23 AM EDT Credit Suisse raised its numbers on MDSO to $24 from $23 to reflect the strong fundamentals in the qtr and their revised lower share count due to the timing of the IPO. Maintained Outperform rating.
Pride International target raised at Goldman8:34 AM EDT Goldman raised its target price on PDE to $33 from $32. The firm sees potential for some consolidation in the oil services/drillers sector, mainly of "pure-play" companies exposed to specific niches such as deepwater drilling and onshore/offshore completions. Maintained Neutral rating.
Progress Energy target lowered at Goldman8:34 AM EDT Goldman lowered its target price on PGN to $36 from $37. The decrease of numbers reflects 2Q2009 earnings, lower debt issuance in 2009, and lower O&M costs due to the approved deferral of pension expenses in Florida. Estimates for FY09 raised to $2.91 from $2.90. Maintained Neutral rating.
ProLogis target raised at Goldman8:33 AM EDT Goldman raised its target on PLD to $7 from $6. The firm sees higher potential dilution from each of the co.'s deleveraging efforts. Estimates for FY09 lowered to $1.34 from $1.36. Maintained Sell rating.
Sears Holdings target raised at Credit Suisse7:22 AM EDT Credit Suisse raised its target price on SHLD to $40 from $20. The raise in numbers reflects the combination of easing comparisons against weak comps and steep markdowns last year, competitor closings, its own store closings, some traction with some of its recent promotions, numerous supplier/other retailer beats and more positive appliance channel checks. Maintained Underperform rating.
Telmex target raised at Goldman8:33 AM EDT Goldman said it is raising TMX target price to $16.20 from $15.50. As volatility recedes, investors can focus on the long term intrinsic value of the company. Estimates for FY09 raised to $1.67 from $1.65. Maintained Neutral rating.
Urban Outfitters numbers boosted at FBR7:27 AM EDT Shares of URBN now seen reaching $30, according to Friedman, Billings Ramsey. Estimates also increased, to reflect a better mix shift, focusing on its own brands. Market Perform rating.
URS target lowered at Goldman8:33 AM EDT Goldman lowered its target price on URS to $51 from $53. The co. beat its 2Q expectations but disappointed on the total number of awards it announced. Estimates lowered for FY09 to $2.90 from $3. Maintained Neutral rating.
URS Corp. target raised at Credit Suisse7:24 AM EDT Credit Suisse raised its target price on URS to $47 from $44. An increase in backlog and benefits from the stimulus package should help position the company strategically for 2010. Maintained Neutral rating.
Wal-Mart estimates raised at Goldman8:35 AM EDT Goldman raised its estimates at Goldman to $3.58 from $3.55 for FY09 to reflect the 2Q beat due to expense cuts which pushed margins higher. Maintained Neutral rating.
Wal-Mart estimates raised at UBS8:27 AM EDT WMT estimates were increased through 2011, UBS said. Company is realizing a higher gross margin. Buy rating and $62 price target.
Weyerhaeuser target lowered at Barclays8:29 AM EDT Shares of WY now seen reaching $51, Barclays Capital said. Company may have received a lower price by making a small sale of its Oregon timberlands. Overweight rating.
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STRATEGY CALLS / MARKET CALLS
Selected REITS downgraded at UBS6:34 AM EDT Selected REITS downgraded at UBS. BXP rating lowered from Neutral to Sell. EQR rating lowered to Sell from Neutral. TCO rating lowered from Neutral to Sell. KIM rating lowered from Neutral to Sell. WRI rating lowered from Neutral from Sell.
Goldman raised its target price on Natural Gas E&Ps8:32 AM EDT Goldman said it is raising its target price on E&Ps to reflect the probability of consolidation. Devon Energy (DVN) target raised $78 from $76. Maintained Buy rating. Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) target raised to $38 from $37. Maintained Neutral rating. EOG Resources (EOG) target raised to $85 from $83. Maintained Buy rating. Newfield Exploration (NFX) target raised to $48 from $47. Maintained Buy rating.
Goldman adjusts target prices for REITs8:36 AM EDT Goldman adjusted its target prices for REITS as the CRE funding market improves but states that there is still a long road to recovery. Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) target raised to $48 from $46. Maintained Neutral rating. UDR (UDR) target raised its numbers on UDR to $10 from $9. Maintained Neutral rating. The Macerich Co. (MAC) numbers raised to $20 from $14. Maintained Neutral rating. Liberty Property (LRY) target raised to $23 from $21. Maintained Neutral rating. Federal Realty Investment (FRT) numbers raised to $45 from $42. Estimates for FY09 lowered to $3.76 from $3.84. Maintained Sell rating.
Market outlook
Futures are relatively flat this morning, indicating a flat to lower open. World stocks have hit a 10-month high, which has many think that the "worst" is behind us. After reviewing at CNBC poll on Tuesday, nearly 90% of economists surveyed said the recession was over and a Bloomberg surveys shows economists consesus expect real U.S. GDP expanding at an annual rate of 2% for the next 4 quarters. This 'sounds' great but the accuracy and complaceny in the market makes very skeptical. Let's date back to roughly six weeks ago when the S&P was at 880. 90% of the of CNBC 'experts' and Bloomberg 'commentators' said that we were going to break the contains trading range of 870-925 on the downside. Many even believed we were going to retest 700, which I have been saying all along is an absolute joke. Point being is that betting with the 'crowd' most of the time is not profitable. In that case, I push all in on the long side with only a 10% cash position and it brought me back to a stellar year (and even those who missed the bottom could have enjoyed 20-30% YTD returns off that push). Now, times are different and my market forecasts have been off, causing me to have a off month for Aug, down 15%. Currently, i am up 252% YTD and doubt I will be positive for the month fo August. Anotherwards, the S&P will probably defeat me (how sad it is but I am an honest fellow). A side of me believes a 51% ramp in the S&P is a bit too much; however, not many were in at the bottom. With all this said, I still think cash is good because on a forward P/E basis, the S&P seems relatively priced in. The bulls are saying the 2010 operating earnings are very low, which may be true. If that is case S&P 'could' print 1,200 but the fears of economic uncertainity are high with double dip recession fears caused by: 1) high personal/corporate taxes 2) high unemployment 3) higher energy costs 4) national deficits at all time highs. Because of this, I have made trades smaller, so if I have to sell, I will sell for smaller losses compared to a full position. Dips are good to buy, so just keep cash and focus on some quality names. The best investing quote I ever heard is "nothing is more important that the price you pay" and I totally believe that, nothing is more important. What was the point in owning Citigroup at $50 during the past 4 years when now it's worth $4 bucks. On the flip side, look at some of these RF trades this year on the blog. Crox at $1.45 now it's at $6. CENX at $1.50, now it's $10+. TNA at $11 bucks now it's $30+. AXP at $11 bucks not it's high $20's. LVS at $4 bucks now it's $13. OWW at $1.44 now $4.50+. FEED at $2.25 now over $5+. LOGI at $8 now over $16+. JOYG at $18 now over $38+. HIG at $10 now at $19+. FAS went from $2.50 to $12+ before split. The key takeways of this is that the price you pay is key and whenever I sell a stock is goes up another 100% (kidding on the latter point but not really - the mystery continues).
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Market Wrapup
Finally, a up day for RF. August has been horrible, I am down 15% on the month, worst month of the year. This is mainly due to losses in leveraged ETFs and loss of gains in EXM & FTK. ADSK earnings just came out, beat both on EPS and Rev but the conf call will be at 5pm, so I need to hear guidance. The firm makes Autocad software, and many emerging markets are purcahsing it for construction projects coming up. Valuation is a little tricky, I think near-term its worth $27 - bull case $30. Will hold it out. I really haven't done nothing else because I have no idea where this market is going. It feels like a sideways correction but value is tough to find because I feel like I am paying premium for everything at these levels. Majority of my holdings, i feel i can buy back cheaper, but am holding just incase we continue to my 1050 price target. I will look at buying HD and LOW on dips because these retails still have value. HD is loved by analysts but honestly, I like LOW better. I feel they have a better consumer appeal. I got too many damn holdings. This weekend, I will reevaluate and determine my next moves and segment my stuff out better. I need to narrow my attack, so I can finish year at 300% YTD (currently 244%) RF is out to enjoy fine dining, have good evening...
Update
Futures are dipping due to weak retail and jobless claims numbers. High cash levels are vital in this market and I am expanding my time frame. I will be in and out of the market short, but will keep long-term focus on oil related names and 4G - smart phones. I will also add more BAC on dips. As for shorts, REITs looked priced in but are heavily shorted, so if we get a good uptick, these could cause pain to people who are short, due to massive short squeezes. I am working on analyzing this 4G - smartphone - mobile biz in more detail as we speak. I will conclude my findings once done, but me and a hedge fund manager are sorting through every firm that has exposure. The project began last night and will take some time, but this area could soar in coming years. Keep in mind, 4G is not a spring but a marathon, so if you want quick returns, it's probably not the place to be. Momentum trading longs/shorts are the way to go but carry signifcant risk in these markets due to economic uncertainity and market volatility.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
RF Position Update
BAC - Paulson just loaded up and the guy is flawless. This bank is still cheap and I believe it will hit $25-$35 by end of 2010 or early-mid 2011, pending economic conditions.
F - Long-term hold, management is doing everything right. If you are trading it, now is probably good time to rang register for nice 60% wins. I am holding tho.
Short ESS - Want to hedge and believe this REIT is fully priced.
QID and Short QQQQ - Hedge, in case we fall out.
RIG - The best driller than I can find. Near-term will face problems; however, long-term this will be a great buy and if oil hits $100 by next summer (which I believe) RIG will print $90-$110.
STAR - 4G - mobile play. Would have liked to get cheaper, say $18-20 but if it dips there, I will add more. Great story and will be huge player in the biz.
UNG - Natural gas will turn in time but supply gluts are here. Hurricane can drive nat gas up...will hold it out.
ENTR - RF stock under $10 special (yes, I will be back with another in the next week) but will hold out. Every box Verizon sells for Fios has 3 ENTR chips in it, so more VZ subs, the more boxes. Verizon is working down inventory.
LVLT - Communication spec play. HIGH UNCERTANITY but I think this is a take over target.
AMD- HIGH UNCERTAINITY. The bet is last Q was margin trough. Will either be $2.50 or $5.50 by year end, flip your coin.
SLM - should have took profits but too late now, long-term financial bet that i think can hit $11+
VALE - China iron ore producer
RTP - China iron ore producer
WY - Housing play - get your timber on
FCX - long-term hold, best gold and chopper miner out
SVR- Not liking, we sell and buy more TSRA with cash
TSRA - will be my top holding over the next month - 4G play
HES - cheap oil name
F - Long-term hold, management is doing everything right. If you are trading it, now is probably good time to rang register for nice 60% wins. I am holding tho.
Short ESS - Want to hedge and believe this REIT is fully priced.
QID and Short QQQQ - Hedge, in case we fall out.
RIG - The best driller than I can find. Near-term will face problems; however, long-term this will be a great buy and if oil hits $100 by next summer (which I believe) RIG will print $90-$110.
STAR - 4G - mobile play. Would have liked to get cheaper, say $18-20 but if it dips there, I will add more. Great story and will be huge player in the biz.
UNG - Natural gas will turn in time but supply gluts are here. Hurricane can drive nat gas up...will hold it out.
ENTR - RF stock under $10 special (yes, I will be back with another in the next week) but will hold out. Every box Verizon sells for Fios has 3 ENTR chips in it, so more VZ subs, the more boxes. Verizon is working down inventory.
LVLT - Communication spec play. HIGH UNCERTANITY but I think this is a take over target.
AMD- HIGH UNCERTAINITY. The bet is last Q was margin trough. Will either be $2.50 or $5.50 by year end, flip your coin.
SLM - should have took profits but too late now, long-term financial bet that i think can hit $11+
VALE - China iron ore producer
RTP - China iron ore producer
WY - Housing play - get your timber on
FCX - long-term hold, best gold and chopper miner out
SVR- Not liking, we sell and buy more TSRA with cash
TSRA - will be my top holding over the next month - 4G play
HES - cheap oil name
4G - Mobile Request
RF Articles:
1. Smartphone report
http://trade247.blogspot.com/2009/07/invest-in-smartphone-technology.html
2. My 4G - Mobile Watchlist:
VRGY , CAVM, OVTI, COMS, JNPR, ARUN, SMSI, BRCD, RAX, BGC, CTV, SDXC, EQIX, XXIA, CSCO, NVDA, SNDK, CRNT, PRKR, S, NTCT, CLWR, NETL, CELL, SMSC, NVEC, SVR, ALVR, MOT, NOK, STM, QCOM, TXN, MRVL, ARMH, AKAM, LLNW, ANAD, TQNT, MVIS, BRCM, ATHR, TSYS, LVLT, ERIC, ALU, SWKS, RFMD, SYNA, TKLC, PALM, RIMM, AAPL, CY, ATML, STAR, CIEN, ADTN, TSRA.
1. Smartphone report
http://trade247.blogspot.com/2009/07/invest-in-smartphone-technology.html
2. My 4G - Mobile Watchlist:
VRGY , CAVM, OVTI, COMS, JNPR, ARUN, SMSI, BRCD, RAX, BGC, CTV, SDXC, EQIX, XXIA, CSCO, NVDA, SNDK, CRNT, PRKR, S, NTCT, CLWR, NETL, CELL, SMSC, NVEC, SVR, ALVR, MOT, NOK, STM, QCOM, TXN, MRVL, ARMH, AKAM, LLNW, ANAD, TQNT, MVIS, BRCM, ATHR, TSYS, LVLT, ERIC, ALU, SWKS, RFMD, SYNA, TKLC, PALM, RIMM, AAPL, CY, ATML, STAR, CIEN, ADTN, TSRA.
Cramer on Mobile Internet Index
Of Course Cramer is late, maybe he saw the July 20th post (below). However, I agree with him, this will be huge!
http://trade247.blogspot.com/2009/07/smartphones-4g-technology.html
Market Wrapup
Solid day, with strong rally. Weak day with some financials but after the bell, hedgefund billionaire "king subprime" John Paulson, disclosed a 162 million share stake in Bank of America! That is big because Paulson made 400% last year on the subprime crisis and by this huge long position, it shows that he feels that the worst is over. We have been hammering BAC for months and this stock has potential to be $28+ by late 2010 or 2011.
As for buys, I added STAR and took a position in TSRA too (technical difficulities, couldn't post). I think these are two of the best mobile internet plays in the market and each were down $2-3 bucks from where I saw them last week. I will add to both on dips. Cramer came out with a mobile internet index last night (will post clip). This has the potential to be huge over the next 2 years, the exposure in this sector is priceless, in my honest opinion.
As for buys, I added STAR and took a position in TSRA too (technical difficulities, couldn't post). I think these are two of the best mobile internet plays in the market and each were down $2-3 bucks from where I saw them last week. I will add to both on dips. Cramer came out with a mobile internet index last night (will post clip). This has the potential to be huge over the next 2 years, the exposure in this sector is priceless, in my honest opinion.
STAR
I am trying to buy this not but my broker is pissing me off. I would buy this here at 23 on scale of course 1/4 or 1/2 position as it may dip to 18. This firm is top 5 best 4g plays in entire market!
Market Outlook - Aug 12th
Greetings fellow t247 peeps -
May prosperity come out way today, despite the bitterness of FTK. FTK, FTK, FTK...this is a classic firm that had it all running right in 2007 and now is nothing. It's equivalent to the a "dot com" firm but in the oil sector. I have seen a lot of things in my trading years but to see a firm not post a earnings data/contact information on a website, insider selling at $2, the firm firing their investor relations team to "cut costs" and about 20 class action lawsuits - is just not a good thing. This makes the second 'death' bomb of the year, next to the almighty GIGM - however, I still don't understand that one.
As for my market decisions, I remain on path of high cash levels and buying names of great quality. Energy seems like the best sector of all, in terms of "inexpensive value". I posted a screen shot of the RIG report and will do one for HES later today.
With my money, I will scale into more names. I think VALE is good name but my price is at $23, so tight margin of safety. However, the estimates do not reflect upturn in Europe, so if Europe can turn (or when they turn) VALE can print high $20's. I also looking at ADSK. I read a great report on them yesterday and independant research shows that licensing can but up for 2010. I would like it to hit $20 before I buy. FCX is still a good one for 2010 play on Copper and Gold mining.
There remains many uncertain economic variables that is not allowing me to be fully invested:
1, Interest rate uncertainity
2. Low Number of job births
3. Housing - not sales, but many people are underwater
With that said, I still believe cash is the best pick - for now.
May prosperity come out way today, despite the bitterness of FTK. FTK, FTK, FTK...this is a classic firm that had it all running right in 2007 and now is nothing. It's equivalent to the a "dot com" firm but in the oil sector. I have seen a lot of things in my trading years but to see a firm not post a earnings data/contact information on a website, insider selling at $2, the firm firing their investor relations team to "cut costs" and about 20 class action lawsuits - is just not a good thing. This makes the second 'death' bomb of the year, next to the almighty GIGM - however, I still don't understand that one.
As for my market decisions, I remain on path of high cash levels and buying names of great quality. Energy seems like the best sector of all, in terms of "inexpensive value". I posted a screen shot of the RIG report and will do one for HES later today.
With my money, I will scale into more names. I think VALE is good name but my price is at $23, so tight margin of safety. However, the estimates do not reflect upturn in Europe, so if Europe can turn (or when they turn) VALE can print high $20's. I also looking at ADSK. I read a great report on them yesterday and independant research shows that licensing can but up for 2010. I would like it to hit $20 before I buy. FCX is still a good one for 2010 play on Copper and Gold mining.
There remains many uncertain economic variables that is not allowing me to be fully invested:
1, Interest rate uncertainity
2. Low Number of job births
3. Housing - not sales, but many people are underwater
With that said, I still believe cash is the best pick - for now.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
RF Position Update: FCX
(CLICK TO ENLARGE)please note: I take anlayst price targets with grain of salt and ignore them. Point and case was analyst who said to short HIG at $10 because he had price target of $5...now it's at $19. RF up 90%, analyst lost 90%. - i post all this for educational purposes for yall.
RF Buy RIG and HES
Bought rig at 74
Bought hes at 53.60
Both could go lower, but I will add
Plan to hold for months in belief energy names are ver cheap in relation to crude prices
Bought hes at 53.60
Both could go lower, but I will add
Plan to hold for months in belief energy names are ver cheap in relation to crude prices
Market Outlook - Aug 11th
Sorry for being short yesterday, had many computer difficulties; however, I posted all my trades. As for the day, I was down; mostly due to the breakdown in RTP and other longs that experienced profit taking. I would not read too much into yesterday as it seemed like it was more of a profit-taking day. As for RTP, the Chinese government is accusing them of a spy program of some sorts, which inhibited them to overcharge customers with iron ore….RTP hasn’t commented, so this geopolitical nonsense pisses me off and it’s impossible to predict.
I really don’t see too much on the long side that is attractive to me. I decided to short some commercrial real estate REITS, for the first time since January! ESS and SLG are two and may take a short position in others. Basically, I feel the REIT rally has overextended a bit too far and it due for a pullback, so I believe these are two of the most overvalued REITs in the sector.
As for FTK…we have earnings before the bell today,LOL, always a way good way to start the morning right? I have no idea what to expect but we saw some short covering today, hence the spike. I got a feeling oil is heading to $80-85 during the next few months, so if FTK can actually prove something, this thing can roll. Look at Georgia Gulf…they announced they got financing and the stock went from $5 to $32 in 4 days. I am not saying FTK is going to do that but I do know that FTK traded at $60 in 2007 and if nat gas rebounds, which I believe it will long-term, FTK has a chance to run….short-term it “could” run to $3. I need to review call and see earnings first. I will be honest, this company is sketchy man. They don’t even have a damn earnings announcement date on their website, so I called the number today at 10a and the person told me it was Aug 11 when my broker said it was Monday. There is a class action lawsuit going on against them, so if all fails, I will pass the number on the blog for the lawyers to contact LOL. I will say for you chart people out there, the 200 days is very close, good news and it can soar with 20% short interest.
All in all, trading is rather boring now because the market is in a weird place. Just stay posted, be able to play from both sides of the game (long and short) and avoid leveraged etfs… I am still in my QID long but I will not be for long. This market is very confusing and mixed signals everywhere. I will try to navigate it the best I can...but at least when we got lucky and caught the bottom (check march achives) at least we knew if they didn't shoot up immediately, we got them cheap. Now, we have ramped up 50% since the March bottom, a lot of return in a short period of time, so it's hard to be crazy bullish.....then again we have seen what those ultrashort hedges have done to me, big losses! Once we get a "ah ha" moment either way, I will deploy more cash either way.
Trading Post Error: Please note, I just saw yesterday that I shorted SLG at $35.30. That should be $33.30, apologizes for the typo. As for other trades, I have the following:
BAC, FTK, QID, F, UNG, SHORT SLG, SHORT ESS, WY, FCX, VALE, RTP, LVLT, AMD, SVR, SLM, and ENTR.
I am not liking action on SVR, so may sell, even though it's a long-term 4G hold. Believe it or not, I might add to AMD, if we dip. If these guys can truly deliver (which is the true "if" becausae they suck) the stock can print $5+ by Christmas.
I really don’t see too much on the long side that is attractive to me. I decided to short some commercrial real estate REITS, for the first time since January! ESS and SLG are two and may take a short position in others. Basically, I feel the REIT rally has overextended a bit too far and it due for a pullback, so I believe these are two of the most overvalued REITs in the sector.
As for FTK…we have earnings before the bell today,LOL, always a way good way to start the morning right? I have no idea what to expect but we saw some short covering today, hence the spike. I got a feeling oil is heading to $80-85 during the next few months, so if FTK can actually prove something, this thing can roll. Look at Georgia Gulf…they announced they got financing and the stock went from $5 to $32 in 4 days. I am not saying FTK is going to do that but I do know that FTK traded at $60 in 2007 and if nat gas rebounds, which I believe it will long-term, FTK has a chance to run….short-term it “could” run to $3. I need to review call and see earnings first. I will be honest, this company is sketchy man. They don’t even have a damn earnings announcement date on their website, so I called the number today at 10a and the person told me it was Aug 11 when my broker said it was Monday. There is a class action lawsuit going on against them, so if all fails, I will pass the number on the blog for the lawyers to contact LOL. I will say for you chart people out there, the 200 days is very close, good news and it can soar with 20% short interest.
All in all, trading is rather boring now because the market is in a weird place. Just stay posted, be able to play from both sides of the game (long and short) and avoid leveraged etfs… I am still in my QID long but I will not be for long. This market is very confusing and mixed signals everywhere. I will try to navigate it the best I can...but at least when we got lucky and caught the bottom (check march achives) at least we knew if they didn't shoot up immediately, we got them cheap. Now, we have ramped up 50% since the March bottom, a lot of return in a short period of time, so it's hard to be crazy bullish.....then again we have seen what those ultrashort hedges have done to me, big losses! Once we get a "ah ha" moment either way, I will deploy more cash either way.
Trading Post Error: Please note, I just saw yesterday that I shorted SLG at $35.30. That should be $33.30, apologizes for the typo. As for other trades, I have the following:
BAC, FTK, QID, F, UNG, SHORT SLG, SHORT ESS, WY, FCX, VALE, RTP, LVLT, AMD, SVR, SLM, and ENTR.
I am not liking action on SVR, so may sell, even though it's a long-term 4G hold. Believe it or not, I might add to AMD, if we dip. If these guys can truly deliver (which is the true "if" becausae they suck) the stock can print $5+ by Christmas.
Monday, August 10, 2009
RTP
Chinese government making ridiculous comments that rio tinto overcharged firms by 100 billion over 6 years. Classic china move to get cheaper goods, how messed up.
Market Outlook - Aug 10th
As for Friday’s action, the jobs numbers was fair – to – good but the number of long-term (people who be out of work for 6+ months) layoffs (of course not disclosed in the media) grew, which is not good. Reports also indicate that consumers are trimming out of their debt, which is needed.
As for my personal accounts, I will swallow the pill of making “slower” money and buy names of quality. Today, I bought 3 solid names of quality: VALE, FCX, and RTP. FCX is a hedge fund hot stock, so it has higher fluctuations, so let it be known. However, they are one of the world’s largest copper and gold miners and if gold soars, as well as other commodities (inflation is coming in time) this stock can print $125+. As for VALE and RTP, these are the best Iron ore/metals firms in the business. China is spending tons on infrastructure and only 15% has gone through so far. These guys provide the volume of metals to China, as well as other emerging markets, Europe, etc. BHP is good too but these are cheaper on valuation in my view. These stocks might go lower, especially if we sell-off but the story will NOT change.
As for financials and REITS, the rally is getting very long in the tooth. Hedge funds are looking to short BAC in size due to the massive run up. The best option is to put 40% of the dollar amount in BAC into SKF as a hedge if you are in for the long haul, in case the stock sees pressure. I will be honest, the short hedges have cost me thousands; however, now that I am out of most, we will probably tank. SLM and BAC are my only financials as of now.
So in summary, I will try to find quick dollar trades but it’s not always that easy. We found 2 good trades in BPOP and HBAN, yielding 16% and 11% in matter of 1 and 3 days but momentum may not always be there.
Instead for the rest of 2009, I will search for value (what’s left) and buy it aggressively but not at all once., just in 20%, 33%, or 50% increments, to lower cost averages in good and make higher returns. For example, if I see DVN at $60 and want to buy 80 shares, I might buy 25, wait for $57 buy 25, then see if I get $55 then buy 30, to have a cost average of like $57ish instead of buying 80 all at $60. Cost average is one of the keys to winning this game that many people don’t do.
As for my personal accounts, I will swallow the pill of making “slower” money and buy names of quality. Today, I bought 3 solid names of quality: VALE, FCX, and RTP. FCX is a hedge fund hot stock, so it has higher fluctuations, so let it be known. However, they are one of the world’s largest copper and gold miners and if gold soars, as well as other commodities (inflation is coming in time) this stock can print $125+. As for VALE and RTP, these are the best Iron ore/metals firms in the business. China is spending tons on infrastructure and only 15% has gone through so far. These guys provide the volume of metals to China, as well as other emerging markets, Europe, etc. BHP is good too but these are cheaper on valuation in my view. These stocks might go lower, especially if we sell-off but the story will NOT change.
As for financials and REITS, the rally is getting very long in the tooth. Hedge funds are looking to short BAC in size due to the massive run up. The best option is to put 40% of the dollar amount in BAC into SKF as a hedge if you are in for the long haul, in case the stock sees pressure. I will be honest, the short hedges have cost me thousands; however, now that I am out of most, we will probably tank. SLM and BAC are my only financials as of now.
So in summary, I will try to find quick dollar trades but it’s not always that easy. We found 2 good trades in BPOP and HBAN, yielding 16% and 11% in matter of 1 and 3 days but momentum may not always be there.
Instead for the rest of 2009, I will search for value (what’s left) and buy it aggressively but not at all once., just in 20%, 33%, or 50% increments, to lower cost averages in good and make higher returns. For example, if I see DVN at $60 and want to buy 80 shares, I might buy 25, wait for $57 buy 25, then see if I get $55 then buy 30, to have a cost average of like $57ish instead of buying 80 all at $60. Cost average is one of the keys to winning this game that many people don’t do.
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