RF Buy MU

Bought 400 at 8.25

RF Buy ERTS

Bought 80 at 18.50

Will cost down with another 160 shares on dips. I think this one is cheap

Refiner call (part 2)

Listen to this small clip and listen to Pete Najarian (ponytail)

Once again we are ahead of "Fast Money" by 3 weeks

I hate to say it..but..I win again

Let's revisit August 24th and my bold prediction: "refiners will rally"

http://trade247.blogspot.com/2009/08/update_24.html

WNR - Price on 8/24 $6.15 , Price on close today $7.60 in AH

TSO - Price on 8/24 $13.60, Price on close today $15.80 in AH

VLO - Price on 8/24 $18.90, Price on close today $20.66 in AH

FTK - Price on 8/24 $1.76, Price on close today $2.16 in AH

RF Portfolio Updates

Portfolio 1: Long Only Portfolio (70% cash - 30% long)

ENTR - spec chip play that I will hold for long-term
WY - Housing bet that may convert into a REIT by end of year 2010. Weak season coming, this stock will dip lower but I will add agressively.
HES - cheap oil play, energy is still cheap
FIG - bet on private equity, if they get out of the woods and get a BX multiplie, it could hit $8-10
PG - My top long-term pick, dirty cheap with a 3% dividend.
TSYS- One of my mobile internet smartphone plays - it's a bet on text messaging - I think it will hit $10 in time, with downside to $6.
SNV-a terrible bank, 42% of loan book is commercial real estate; however, the equity raise may comfort investors. With that said, I took a long-shot on this - be careful with this one, it is not out of the woods yet
HON - My favorite industrial stock right now...3% and has more upside potential than EMR.


Portfolio 2: Long/Short Portfolio

Short QQQQ
Long TWM
Short AIG
Long AIG $20 Oct Puts
Long BAC
Long F
Long PEP
Long UNG

WNR

The shit never ends, I sell yesterday for 10%. And what does the bastard do today, up 12%


The mystery continues

RF BUYS SNV

300@3.96

F

Checkup on U.S. Banks

Bank Checkup

RF Sell

Sold DRYS 10.5% gain
Sold WNR 12.6% gain
Sold rtp 19.2% gain
Sold TSRA 10.8% gain

RF Sell LVLT

Sold all at 1.58 for 26% gain

Market Outlook- Sept.16th

Futures seem to be green this morning - indicating a higher open. As for market news, my thesis that tech M&A would appear, discussed 3 months ago seems accurate with the Adobe (ADBE) $21.50 all-cash bid for Omniture (OMTR). My gut feels that Yahoo (YHOO) may make a counteroffer - but that is just the voices in my head talking again :D Tech remains a great sector due to growth prospects and the amazing balance sheets. Tons of companies have massive cash piles on the books, with minimal debt - so in my view, the M&A will continue. If i had to pick a few firms that look like takeover targets, I would say: Ciena (CIEN), Red Hat (RHT), VM Ware (VMW), and Sandisk (SNDK) are look to be canidates - however, most seem to be priced-in, meaning upside in stock price appreciation is limited. As for other aspects of the market, the dollar continues to be pounded. This is the second lowest oversold reading in the history of the dollar! My believe is of course, it will continue to be weaker; however, I believe we could see a short-term bounce, which might cause me to buy the dollar (UUP) and short crude oil (USO). If I make the trade, I will post - but getting long the dollar is not on the top of my trade list. There is some great action in some semis - particularly Sandisk (SNDK). It jumped strong from $16 to $20ish and many are bullish on the stock. I might look at thie name on a dip to $17 but not trying to chase a crowded trade. As for banks, Barclays is hosting a Finanicals conference this week and many of the mid-cap banks see good improvements. Suntrust (STI) said they have no interest to buy failing banks, which to me is not that positive, in belief, that many of their compeitors, like BB&T (BBT) are buying them for dirt cheap - as the CEO of BB&T says the deals are "much less, risk free". I like STI long term but have been selling it in my long-term portfolio from my $15.75 purchase price.

Update

Looks like we got another RF winner here in WNR - go baby go. It's such a junk refiner, if oil depresses and the crack spread improves, we could easily double - if not we could see $3 on her. Refiners are same level as airlines - buyer beware. As for the market, it's still ramping. The credit card data is absolutely terrible. Deliquences for most banks have increased and for some banks NCOs (Net Charge Offs) have rose as well. American Express (AXP) had the best report while deal ol Bank of America (BAC) is sucking wind with the worst - near 14% NCO rate! This shows the consumer is weak; however, every mall I go to seems packed..very strange. I will let these banks come in some, then reload, buying them in size. HBAN and KEY are my favorite specs while BAC, JPM, and WFC remain the giants. With mortgage rates dropping again, WFC and BAC could rippp - keep in mind BAC has huge mortgage exposure with Countrywide - low rates could create huge housing demand. AMD is nearing $6, while FTK is back and roaring - how how the stock gods love me. If i was still long here, i would be trimming here - no question - both management teams are pathetic. The cheapest sector remains consumer staples and the richest valued sector is either tech or consumer discretionary. PEP, MO, and PG are my favorite consumer staples stocks - I will add more on dips.

LVLT

Break out!

AAPL Update

aapl

DFS=Credit Card Trust Data Review

DFS Trust Data

COF-Credit Card Trust Data

COF-augtrust

Ford (F)

If you were up at 4:15a this morning, Ford's european CFO said on Bloomberg that they're are fully equipped with financing, will NOT raise capital at these levels, and no financing will be done. This signals to me that Ford is on fire and stealing tons of share - GM and Chrysler are in big trouble.

Market Outlook

Futures seem to be flucuating a bit today - around 5:58a we were down about .33% now we are up about .08%. This market seems like it does not want to die, so my best advice is not to fight this tape. In terms of housekeeping, I covered my LVS short for another loss. In my opinion, LVS is one of the most overvalued stocks in the market but it is too risky to short it here, considering people have been upgrading it like crazy. It could run to $22-25, then I might short it. It's rather funny because we loaded up at the bottom at $4.80 and sold it for mad profits, now I got it all back on the short side :( On the long side, I will add more shares of DRYS, TSYS, PEP, PG and possibly take another long position in HBAN or FRO. I like FRO with a 3% yield but like it better at $20 than here at $22. Other than that, let's sit back and brace ourselves for someone fun..I am down on the month and need to get my act together quick - I am not used to losing like this. Sit back on some cash, have some longs and enjoy this bull parade.

S&P Valuation

I will be out of the office today - I will be playing in a golf tournament. However, before I go I just wanted to give a writeup with some thought on the valuation of this market. As discussed in one of my first posts in March (on the archive on the bottom left - either first or second week of March) that valuation of the S&P relies on two variables: 1) the operating earnings per share of all the 500 companies and 2) the PE multiple assigned to it. Both variables are rather debatable because for the earnings - many bulls feel that earnings could explode to the upside (due to deep corporate cost cuts) while the bears feel that earnings will dissapoint (due to weaker consumer, etc). It's safe to say that 2009's S&P operating earnings will be between $60-$65 a share. If you multiple those numbers by 15 (the multiple most analyst and economics are giving as a PE multiple due to inflation, trough earnings, etc) then you get a S&P range of 900-975. Well that is great but now that 2009 is 3/4's of the way over, we must look forward, as the market looks 3-6 months out. I believe the multiple of 15x will be constant - however, the operating earnings will be the true question of "mystery". If operating earnings stay flat - no growth, no shinkrage - then we the S&P ranges will remain between 900-975; showing this market is richly valued. Currently, First Call consensus for 2010 operating earnings is $74 - so 74*15 = 1,110 for S&P value - which could be achieved by summer of 2010 "IF" and that is a big "IF" these firms combined generate $74 (or are on track to be earning). I don't have a crystal ball and it's difficult to see but many people on both camps - "bulls" and "bears" are placing the big bets now. There is no question it will be challenging, so I will keep an open mind and research both stories out.