I will buy calls on dips...however, this article tells options market is expecting big move by Friday.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB124450105147295821.html
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Position Update: DELL
Very solid action at $13. They are looking to buy somebody...the word on the street is PALM.
http://austin.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2009/06/08/daily39.html?ana=yfcpc
http://austin.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2009/06/08/daily39.html?ana=yfcpc
Position Update: RFMD
It seemed like yesterday when I was loading up on this at $1.75....
RF Micro Device estimates and tgt raised to $4 at Oppenheimer as demand trends create a postive outlook (RFMD) 3.43 : Oppenheimer raises their Q1 and FY10/11 EPS ests to $0.01 from $(0.01) (consensus $0.00) and to $0.08/$0.13 from $0.02/$0.09 (consensus $0.08 and $0.17), respectively. The firm also raises their tgt to $4 from $3. The firm notes that RFMD has been vocal during the quarter with respect to the pace of its recovery, suggesting demand trends are better than guided to on its last earnings call. The firm's checks support the positive outlook and also reveal that part of the strength stems from market share gains at Nokia and Samsung. The firm expect RFMD's momentum to carry over into the September quarter, with revenue growth likely to remain stronger than the underlying handset market. In addition, the firm expects the stronger volumes to drive higher yields and likely near-term gross margin upside as well.
RF Micro Device estimates and tgt raised to $4 at Oppenheimer as demand trends create a postive outlook (RFMD) 3.43 : Oppenheimer raises their Q1 and FY10/11 EPS ests to $0.01 from $(0.01) (consensus $0.00) and to $0.08/$0.13 from $0.02/$0.09 (consensus $0.08 and $0.17), respectively. The firm also raises their tgt to $4 from $3. The firm notes that RFMD has been vocal during the quarter with respect to the pace of its recovery, suggesting demand trends are better than guided to on its last earnings call. The firm's checks support the positive outlook and also reveal that part of the strength stems from market share gains at Nokia and Samsung. The firm expect RFMD's momentum to carry over into the September quarter, with revenue growth likely to remain stronger than the underlying handset market. In addition, the firm expects the stronger volumes to drive higher yields and likely near-term gross margin upside as well.
Position Update: GME
Good Article:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/analysts-expect-a-rebound-in-video-game-sales?siteid=yhoof
Update on Sony PS3 Article (mixed):
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8541632
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/analysts-expect-a-rebound-in-video-game-sales?siteid=yhoof
Update on Sony PS3 Article (mixed):
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8541632
Friday, June 12, 2009
RF Sell BDSI
Sold 40% of position at $7.65 in afterhours, 50% gain!
Something is brewing in AH, perhaps an approval!
Something is brewing in AH, perhaps an approval!
Shorts
Many funds are expanding their short book this morning. No fear, im staying cool and camping out. Will raise a little cash
Market Outlook
The futures look a little weak but I don't really see any negative news that is out today. We have a little M&A action with Blackrock buying Blarclay's Global unit. We have some import and export pricing data coming out at 8:30a, as well as the big consumer sentiment number at 9:55a.
As for the month, we have 2 1/2 weeks left in June. I will be thinning alot of my positions between now and then but I believe many instiutional investors are waiting for the last minute, in terms of making purchases in the month of June. I am not too excited about July, unless this is a birth of the "new bull" and if that is the case, dow will print 10000, nasdaq 2300, and s&p 1100.
The bearish sentiment has came back but I believe one of the reasons is that they are trying to talk down the market, so they can buy the dip. I will look for investment opportunites that will benefit for the new and coming trends in the economy. I believe housing related stocks will go higher since housing is improving (not fully recovered). I own LOW but also like HD. I also like plays related to higher gas prices. Dollar stores and WMT will continue to thrive in my view as consumers will continue to stay frugal. The jobless recovery that we are in is a bit concerning and I believe "some" consumers will try to cut costs from higher gas prices. Lastly, I will buy an AG stock. The candidates include: IPI, POT, AGU, MON, MOS, CF, TRA and TNH. I am currently conducting a deep analysis on this sector, similar to ones I did on Commercial Real Estate, Semiconductors, and Shipping. I am not done yet but I am determined to make a killing on it. I will share some my findings soon.
As for the month, we have 2 1/2 weeks left in June. I will be thinning alot of my positions between now and then but I believe many instiutional investors are waiting for the last minute, in terms of making purchases in the month of June. I am not too excited about July, unless this is a birth of the "new bull" and if that is the case, dow will print 10000, nasdaq 2300, and s&p 1100.
The bearish sentiment has came back but I believe one of the reasons is that they are trying to talk down the market, so they can buy the dip. I will look for investment opportunites that will benefit for the new and coming trends in the economy. I believe housing related stocks will go higher since housing is improving (not fully recovered). I own LOW but also like HD. I also like plays related to higher gas prices. Dollar stores and WMT will continue to thrive in my view as consumers will continue to stay frugal. The jobless recovery that we are in is a bit concerning and I believe "some" consumers will try to cut costs from higher gas prices. Lastly, I will buy an AG stock. The candidates include: IPI, POT, AGU, MON, MOS, CF, TRA and TNH. I am currently conducting a deep analysis on this sector, similar to ones I did on Commercial Real Estate, Semiconductors, and Shipping. I am not done yet but I am determined to make a killing on it. I will share some my findings soon.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Barney Frank Is a Loser
We have this fool running our banks and auto companies. Please join me and let's overthrow this bitch. If I could deck one person in this world, it would be this assclown.
Market Wrapup
Sorry for delay. Well the FNSR earnings weren't terrific, so the selloff is expected. I still like the telecommunication sector, so i will look over my position and determine my next. Well, first thing is first, I sold GIGM the dog today. The beating was just too much to bare any longer. The firm is worth $8 from numerous valuation metrics but I do not have to fight the market any longer on this. I will simply research other stocks and buy them to make money. FTK was rather weak but if you believe in oil, squeeze is forth coming. If you are risk adverse, feel free to sell now and take profit...nothing wrong with that because a breakout is not imminent; however, likely. ENTR looks good going forward as well...let's see if it will fill the gap.
As for the market, it seems as the rally is narrowing. We need to close above 950 to begin a new trading range and are having difficulty doing that. I have plenty of chips on the table but will scale out of positions in the next few weeks. The people want to take the market down and they may do it but I still believe in the thesis of supply and demand - which many funds are underowned in equities and have to buy and make money to make their 2nd Qtr.
I still like banks and home related stocks. Yet another analyst came out today and said BAC shares can triple - that makes two analysts now! I own some in one of my accounts but will buy it on dips. KEY is another one but I bought this week at $5.35ish and worst case I believe is $2 and best case is $15 - over a 24 month period. I wouldn't go all in on them but there is still some value, in my opinion. I will probably reduce my oil-related holdings and stick with tech and banks going forward. I will buy a AG stocks soon but want a dip (i hope i get it).
I'm off people, take it easy
As for the market, it seems as the rally is narrowing. We need to close above 950 to begin a new trading range and are having difficulty doing that. I have plenty of chips on the table but will scale out of positions in the next few weeks. The people want to take the market down and they may do it but I still believe in the thesis of supply and demand - which many funds are underowned in equities and have to buy and make money to make their 2nd Qtr.
I still like banks and home related stocks. Yet another analyst came out today and said BAC shares can triple - that makes two analysts now! I own some in one of my accounts but will buy it on dips. KEY is another one but I bought this week at $5.35ish and worst case I believe is $2 and best case is $15 - over a 24 month period. I wouldn't go all in on them but there is still some value, in my opinion. I will probably reduce my oil-related holdings and stick with tech and banks going forward. I will buy a AG stocks soon but want a dip (i hope i get it).
I'm off people, take it easy
SPNG
Ok I'm rarely serious but whoever emailed me and said to buy this at 4 cents last week, please email me again a new one.
525% in a week is ungodly.
525% in a week is ungodly.
RF Sell FAS
Sold at 10.55 for wins
I still like banks but I need cash to play small cap lotto!
I miss it guys
I still like banks but I need cash to play small cap lotto!
I miss it guys
HGSI
We are selling at the $3's now - hot money is not in this yet. I am in NEPH but if I wasn't I would be in this one. Did the HW - upside could be incredible on this.
Bottom line: At $3.25, the risk reward looks good - it's "RF blessed" for the biotech basket
Bottom line: At $3.25, the risk reward looks good - it's "RF blessed" for the biotech basket
Market Outlook
The market continues to be choppy; however, oil looks very strong. In premarket, Oil is now at $72, so I believe the FTK shorts are getting scared. I think the short squeeze will continue but as for the stock target, I am thinking $3-$4 range. The news in AMD is encourgaging. AMD seems to be getting it's act together and I think it is going higher (althought many do not).
As for the market, all eyes will be on the treasury auction. The 10yr got over 4% yesterday, which was beyond terrible. The NASDAQ is showing some divergency with the price of stocks relative to the index value, which could spur some selling in tech; however, tech is still my favorite sector.
If you are looking for small caps that can move, here is my list:
CAEI, CTIC, MVIS, and CNXT (yes, for you old schoolers Cramer's tech stock of 2005 LOL)
Catch yall later.
As for the market, all eyes will be on the treasury auction. The 10yr got over 4% yesterday, which was beyond terrible. The NASDAQ is showing some divergency with the price of stocks relative to the index value, which could spur some selling in tech; however, tech is still my favorite sector.
If you are looking for small caps that can move, here is my list:
CAEI, CTIC, MVIS, and CNXT (yes, for you old schoolers Cramer's tech stock of 2005 LOL)
Catch yall later.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Position Update: ATHR
Still in from $16, Deutsche Bank upgraded it to buy with $25 PT. Great balance sheet.
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2009/06/04/atheros-rallies-deutsche-bank-upgrades-to-buy-rating/
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2009/06/04/atheros-rallies-deutsche-bank-upgrades-to-buy-rating/
Position Update: GLW
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/06/09/7-stocks-from-the-leading-sector-of-the-next-bull-.aspx
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINTP18863820090610?rpc=44
From a technical perspective, if we can close above $16.30ish, I don't see anything stopping it to $19.75 (unless of a market selloff).
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINTP18863820090610?rpc=44
From a technical perspective, if we can close above $16.30ish, I don't see anything stopping it to $19.75 (unless of a market selloff).
Goldman Raises RIMM Price Target to $96
(Source: Goldman Sachs Research - click to enlarge)
Above are some highlights from the Goldman Sachs upgrade on RIMM. They report next Thursday.
RF Sell NEPH and LVLT
Sold another 25% of 25% at 1.23 for 121% gain
Sold 500 LVLT at 1.37
For 32% gain
Wish I had my 3000 other shares, sold for a breakout a while back :C
Sold 500 LVLT at 1.37
For 32% gain
Wish I had my 3000 other shares, sold for a breakout a while back :C
Market Outlook
Futures ripping! Let's hope it holds.
Oil is now at $71.10, so let's hope it maintains this strong path. As for tech, it's going higher. This is a strong market guys, I mean this is the time to be in and make money. RIMM got it's price target raised from $85 to $96. Earnings next week, it's worth a look! Last time I left about 1100% on call options on the table (what a surprise) so we will see.
I release to you my small cap specualtive stock for the rest of 2009 and 2010: OPWV
I don't think you have to rush and buy it today but I will post the report tonight and explain my thesis on the company. In short, the company makes mobile analytics software. Even as Cramer pumped my RFMD yesterday, he is right, the growth rate in mobile related industrys is insane for the next 3 years.
I think BRCM can grow from 2% market share to 12% market share! If that is true, this stock is a easy 50% or 100% gain in a year or 2.
STAR is another one I had at $15 and sold too early but this is now IBD's #2 stock now and is getting pumped hard. Watch it on dips!
Oil is now at $71.10, so let's hope it maintains this strong path. As for tech, it's going higher. This is a strong market guys, I mean this is the time to be in and make money. RIMM got it's price target raised from $85 to $96. Earnings next week, it's worth a look! Last time I left about 1100% on call options on the table (what a surprise) so we will see.
I release to you my small cap specualtive stock for the rest of 2009 and 2010: OPWV
I don't think you have to rush and buy it today but I will post the report tonight and explain my thesis on the company. In short, the company makes mobile analytics software. Even as Cramer pumped my RFMD yesterday, he is right, the growth rate in mobile related industrys is insane for the next 3 years.
I think BRCM can grow from 2% market share to 12% market share! If that is true, this stock is a easy 50% or 100% gain in a year or 2.
STAR is another one I had at $15 and sold too early but this is now IBD's #2 stock now and is getting pumped hard. Watch it on dips!
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
market wrapup
Well considering the death of GIGM today, I ended up about 2% on the day, with strong gains in tech. The GIGM mess is a headache. Frankly management is doing a dumb move by trying to sell the internet biz because that is a money maker. For the record, I'm down 18 percent on the stock and its my biggest loser YTD. Feel free to send hate mail, ill read it over warm beer, instead of cold. However, I am still in and will reevaluate my position. I will admit its concerning. Regardless if I am in or out, the money will be made back, if not in GIGm but another position.
I'm off, will post research tonight.
I'm off, will post research tonight.
RF Sell NEPH
I sold 1500 today for a 50.4% gain
Will hold my last 500 for the decision.
Play smart here!
Will hold my last 500 for the decision.
Play smart here!
No Lie
I kid you not, a guy last week told me to buy spng last week at 4 cents. Now its at 12 cents. Email me another one please!
FRO
Second biggest position, moving hard! Dividend record date is today but the sector is rallying hard.
Market
GIGM has pissed me off to no end. I will comptemplate and decide on what I will do on it after lunch. The market will trade flat and 1PM will decide the day with the auction.
Glw is moving nicely and is approaching my 16 price target however I'm upping it to 17.
FNSR is breakout bound any second, I am looking another 10% on it.
Glw is moving nicely and is approaching my 16 price target however I'm upping it to 17.
FNSR is breakout bound any second, I am looking another 10% on it.
GIGM
Listening now, CEO says in final discussions with two parties to sell poker or casino software biz or looking for a strategic partnership. No more information to be given.
Market Outlook
Futures relatively flat to slightly off today but the attention will come today to the 3 year treasury auction. We have 3 treasuries auctions this week:
Tuesday - 3 year
Wednesday - 10 year
Thursday - 30 year
So the big thing to watch is the demand and the yields of those bonds. Title insurers are good shorts if you believe yields will continue to rise. FNF, STC, and FAF are good shorts in that field, if you have to have some but I am not shorting this market yet.
Also for the S&P, we seem to be in a neutral trading/consolidation range from 925-950. As for tech, I think we will go higher because Goldman upgraded AAPL today and TXN raised estimates. Once again, I find myself kicking myself for selling TXN at $17 but I might get back in soon. I got the report but just need to read it. Lastly, the big PALM Pre came out this weekend; however, AAPL took out its luster by announcing price cuts. If you are believer in the Palm Pre, MXIM makes the chips for the phone and TQNT also makes semis for the phone.
Time is coming for GIGM's earnings, get the biscuits ready!
Tuesday - 3 year
Wednesday - 10 year
Thursday - 30 year
So the big thing to watch is the demand and the yields of those bonds. Title insurers are good shorts if you believe yields will continue to rise. FNF, STC, and FAF are good shorts in that field, if you have to have some but I am not shorting this market yet.
Also for the S&P, we seem to be in a neutral trading/consolidation range from 925-950. As for tech, I think we will go higher because Goldman upgraded AAPL today and TXN raised estimates. Once again, I find myself kicking myself for selling TXN at $17 but I might get back in soon. I got the report but just need to read it. Lastly, the big PALM Pre came out this weekend; however, AAPL took out its luster by announcing price cuts. If you are believer in the Palm Pre, MXIM makes the chips for the phone and TQNT also makes semis for the phone.
Time is coming for GIGM's earnings, get the biscuits ready!
Monday, June 8, 2009
Dow 9,000 Here We Come
One of the "bullish" technical patterns that traders are eyeing is the gap fill in the DIA (Dow 30). Right now the DIA is holding the 200 day well, so there is strong support there and it looks like we will fill the gap to the January top. Whether we break it or not is another story but the charts rarely lie and it's showing another 2.5% on the DOW.
We do have some serious things that can hamper this rally this week - the treasury auctions. The yields on treasuries are creeping up which may hurt the rally. The reason of this is that many investors will look at a 10-yr treasury that yields 3.9% (that is risk-free) and move money out of the stock market and into the bond. It will be interesting to see how the auctions come about but these auctions need to be on the radar.
GIGM - Do or Die!
(Source: Sterne Agee)Finally, the time as come. Tomorrow morning GIGM will release earnings and I pray that this company will blow earnings out, so I can dump this P.O.S. stock. Above are the company's estimates and the proof is in the numbers, the stock is cheap. After CYOU reports, the stock went from $25 to $40 in about a week, so something similar may happen with GIGM. Here is what I am looking for on the release or conference call:
1. Their view on china on-line gambling for 2010 (in terms of % growth)
2. Updates on regulation centered around on-line gambling
3. Revenue actuals vs. estimates
4. EPS actuals vs. estimates
5. FY reaffirmed or upward adjusted outlook
I hope the anlayst who downgraded this company eats a pile of crow because I think the stock is worth $8.50 but investors need confidence and proof.
market Wrapup
What a reversal! Although we didn't close up, the shorts gotta be scared. I know I would be.
As for today, I ended up well and hope you did as well. GIGM continues to kill me but tomorrow is earnings, let's hope they crush it. I bought a speculative regional bank today in KEY. This will not be a fast money trade! However, I believe in two years this bank can print 10, if not 12. Then again, I've been wrong before. I also added to my UNG and DXO to gain more commodity exposure. I like jJC also for copper but I'm low on cash and don't want to use margin in this crazy market.
I still think we are going higher and I like every sector really. I think we got another 3 weeks for this rally and then come July, we will battle it out then.
Off to do some work, later
As for today, I ended up well and hope you did as well. GIGM continues to kill me but tomorrow is earnings, let's hope they crush it. I bought a speculative regional bank today in KEY. This will not be a fast money trade! However, I believe in two years this bank can print 10, if not 12. Then again, I've been wrong before. I also added to my UNG and DXO to gain more commodity exposure. I like jJC also for copper but I'm low on cash and don't want to use margin in this crazy market.
I still think we are going higher and I like every sector really. I think we got another 3 weeks for this rally and then come July, we will battle it out then.
Off to do some work, later
market outlook
Selloff due to high 10 year yields and strong dollar. 925 support on s and p. Ill probably buy banks on this dip.
Sunday, June 7, 2009
GIGM
Rather funny how this closed down when it was up at $6.86 on Friday. Friday was the highest volume day in 2009...very interesting!
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RF's Predictions on the Indices
S&P - I'm sticking by my 1050 call
NASDAQ - 2,100 with ease by Christmas
DOW - I called 9,000 at 8,200 and all my friends thought I was an idiot. It's going to 9,500 by turkey day.
NASDAQ - 2,100 with ease by Christmas
DOW - I called 9,000 at 8,200 and all my friends thought I was an idiot. It's going to 9,500 by turkey day.
Trading This Market - NASDAQ
Here is a little tip for you day traders out there. I don't post my day trades on the indices (some I do) because it's very complicated. But I have been making some side cash on the Q's (QQQQ) and here in my strategy. In my view, the clear market leader for the NASDAQ is only one stock and that is AAPL. The first part of morning was too difficult but around 2p I saw weakness in AAPL, so I went short the QLD at $39.06 and stayed short for 40 minutes (until AAPL recovered). I covered at $38.52, then bought shares of QLD at $38.58 and sold at $39.01 near the close. Again, my guide is AAPL and these are tiny day trades and incase AAPL sold off further, I could short the QLD again. Regardless I made about 3% day trade on this Friday, which is damn good in my view. Anyways, if you are a day trader of indices, it is a fun and interesting thing. I do it sometimes but only when I have the time. I mean there are traders who do nothing but day trade the indicies and take about $10,000 or $15,000 and try to make $300-$500 a day and if your good, you can do it. FAZ and SRS are other tools that are famous day trading tools. It's not my style, I swing trade but if you are new to trading, try testing it on "paper" (trading without real money).
Now for the market. The market in general seems to be fading the 9:30a open on good news days (selling off) and gapping up on bad news days at 9:30a. This is the same thing it did in 2006/2007 bull markets and in the late 1990's. The key is to remember this because if news seems very, very good - buyers flood the gates at 9:30 (like friday) and by 10a the market sells off by shorts because it's a classic "sell the news" fade. Basically, all the momentum is at the open and cannot carry through out the day. Anyways, we shall see if this continues but if it does, now you know what the pros are doing out there.
I like to keeps it reals.
Now for the market. The market in general seems to be fading the 9:30a open on good news days (selling off) and gapping up on bad news days at 9:30a. This is the same thing it did in 2006/2007 bull markets and in the late 1990's. The key is to remember this because if news seems very, very good - buyers flood the gates at 9:30 (like friday) and by 10a the market sells off by shorts because it's a classic "sell the news" fade. Basically, all the momentum is at the open and cannot carry through out the day. Anyways, we shall see if this continues but if it does, now you know what the pros are doing out there.
I like to keeps it reals.
Natural Gas Names
(Source: Goldman Sachs Research - click to enlarge)
I have devoted this weekend's research to natural gas. Yesterday I highlighted GS's views towards the commodity and today I will devoted some time to direct stocks that center around natural gas. I believe the commodity seems cheaper than most of the names; however, I believe that some of these names are worth a buy. I personally own APC in my long portfolio and have traded SD but below are my top picks.
Large Cap: DVN, APC, APA
Mid Cap: PXD, NFX, SD
Small Cap: BRY, ME
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