Bought 90 shares at 13.31
Will scale into more
Friday, September 4, 2009
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Gold - Part 2
Oh yea... RF looked out for yall when Gold was trading at YTD lows! The gold rush maybe just beginning, smart money arrives months ahead!
http://trade247.blogspot.com/2009/04/gold.html
http://trade247.blogspot.com/2009/04/gold.html
RF short AIG
I'm shorting 100 aig here at 41.69
Insane high risk, I don't endorse but I have good year and want to press the pedal to the metal
It may just be a daytrade with jobs tomorrow
Insane high risk, I don't endorse but I have good year and want to press the pedal to the metal
It may just be a daytrade with jobs tomorrow
RF Sell TSO
Sold all at 13.68 for 5% gain
I will reinvest this in TSYS when you assholes stop biding it up lol. The stock is on heavy volume with 39k shares already traded, it makes me feel good people are reading the blog. But seriously, give the almight RF a chance to buy 1 damn share loll
I will reinvest this in TSYS when you assholes stop biding it up lol. The stock is on heavy volume with 39k shares already traded, it makes me feel good people are reading the blog. But seriously, give the almight RF a chance to buy 1 damn share loll
Market Outlook
Not too much new on my end. Futures up and I posted the STAR upgrade from yesterday below. It's a name in the "RF Portfolio 1" and will hold for coming years. More than likely, I will take a starter position in TSYS this morning as well. Shares seem cheap here. Keep everyone posted.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
RF Buy PG and PEP
I am buying both PG and PEP now
PG will be a 5% of portfolio buy at 53.15
PEP will be same
PG will be a 5% of portfolio buy at 53.15
PEP will be same
Market Outlook - Sept 2
I am really not paying attention to the futures because I am losing faith that futures are actually good indicators of what the day may bring. As for yesterday, I was up on the day, mainly to making the "balls to the wall" trade of being heavily short. It worked out, so i guess everyone gets a little lucky. In terms of economy, we still have big problems - our deficit is a problem, as well as umemployment.
When I say RF is shorting 100 shares of xyz at $15, I AM NOT BUYING SHARES OF XYZ.. When I short it, I am in theory "betting against" the stock and am selling short the stock or etf. What I am pretty much saying is "i see xyz is at $15 but I think I can buy it at $12, so I will sell short 100 shares at $15 and cover at $12 for a $3 per share gain - $15-$12=$3. It is risky because you max profit potential is only 100% ($15-$15=$0) but on the flip side, the losses can be unlimited. So if XYZ got bought tomorrow at $40 per share, I am in big trouble and have booked a loss of 166%. So, it is important to research all shorts. Index shorts (ex. SPY) track the S&P, so normally the S&P only moves 1-2% max on a day, so you see the loss potential is less; however, if market tanks, stocks normally tank 3-6%, while an index may only tank 2-3% because it's so diversified.
Housekeeping: I have updated my portfolio and scroll down to see my portfolio views from last night. I also posted a Auto Sales Recap from Aug. I make these printable, so feel free to print this, read on lunch break, or whatever works best. Just click buttons on top of document to make it more zoomed in and find print trigger.
When I say RF is shorting 100 shares of xyz at $15, I AM NOT BUYING SHARES OF XYZ.. When I short it, I am in theory "betting against" the stock and am selling short the stock or etf. What I am pretty much saying is "i see xyz is at $15 but I think I can buy it at $12, so I will sell short 100 shares at $15 and cover at $12 for a $3 per share gain - $15-$12=$3. It is risky because you max profit potential is only 100% ($15-$15=$0) but on the flip side, the losses can be unlimited. So if XYZ got bought tomorrow at $40 per share, I am in big trouble and have booked a loss of 166%. So, it is important to research all shorts. Index shorts (ex. SPY) track the S&P, so normally the S&P only moves 1-2% max on a day, so you see the loss potential is less; however, if market tanks, stocks normally tank 3-6%, while an index may only tank 2-3% because it's so diversified.
Housekeeping: I have updated my portfolio and scroll down to see my portfolio views from last night. I also posted a Auto Sales Recap from Aug. I make these printable, so feel free to print this, read on lunch break, or whatever works best. Just click buttons on top of document to make it more zoomed in and find print trigger.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
RF Portfolio Update
I was up about 5% on the day alone - got lucky but went almost all-in short on margin. Here is my portfolio updates.
BAC (Cost high $11's) - Best value for the banks. I may dip more if we get cheaper. I hate to sell it here because I think it will touch $20 by year end and high $20's by end of 2010. I rather just hold on to shorts to hedge out the losses and let it hold.
F (Cost $4.925) - Great long but will probably drop more. I will hold this for years and want a $10 price target before I sell. The company probably will do a equity offering soon and needs to work on labor costs.
Short IYR ($40.60 short price) - REITS are overextended, I will let them pause and cover.
Short LVS ($14.20 short price) - Swaine Flu short due to rising fears of flu, may weaken travel trips to vacation spots (hotels, airplaines, casinos, crusies, etc.)
Short RCL ($19.28 short price) - same thesis as LVS
PEP ($56.60 cost) - Slow money investment. Shares are undervalued, company has 3% dividend and the purchase of bottlers will save $400m in annual savings due 2012. I think it can print $65-70 per share but not overnight. The value is in the snack food business, Coke doesn't have it.
Short QQQQ ($40.54 short price) - Market correction, shorting this gets me short the Nasdaq index.
RIG ($72.75 cost) - Cheap oil exploration and the company has the best quality. Oil is the key watch on this. If oil holds $70 for time, exploration projects comeback and these guys control deepwater drilling. I will add if we dip. Long-term hold for me and I think we get $90+.
Short SPY ($103.30 short price) - Market correction, shorting this gets me short the S&P.
STAR (either $23 or $24 cost i can't remember) - Long-term 4G smart phone - internet index play. The company will do good long-term, I will post report soon on it for you guys to read. I overpaid, but will add more in $16-18 level. Long-term we will see $26-30, if not higher.
TWM ($31.25 cost) - Gets me short the Russell Index (times two) double short ETF. Market correction short.
UNG ($14.10 cost) - Biggest loser, down 26% but will hold it. The UNG is poison with a terrible contango in natural gas futures. It's a complicated etf, I am not buying more or selling, will hold for hopes of recovery.
ENTR ($2.45 cost) - Semiconductor firm, makes chips that go into DVR boxes. Dice roll and will hold it out.
LVLT ($1.27 cost) - Piece of s*it. Risky dice roll but firm can't control expenses. It's a tiny position for me and will hold it out unless it gets problmatic.
WY ($37.15 cost) - A great long-term bet on housing. I hate that they are selling lumber yards at low prices but they want to improve balance sheet. I will add more in low$30's and looking for price target of $45 to $50.
SLM ($8.40 cost) - Been in and out of this one but long-term Sallie has some value. Of course, we need those students to get jobs to pay the loans but last quarter was great. They did a lot to improve things. I will add more on dips, it's one of the cheaper finanicals out there but keep in mind - "student loans, jobs, repayment" I think Sallie Mae is out of the woods unless the numbers out smart me, I don't think that is the case..money managers just need trust to buy it up.
VALE ($20 cost) - I am down on this and RTP but don't care. Metals will be high in demand and if we get inflation, I want metals. I will definetly buy more VALE and RTP, my thesis has been explained on this sector already.
RTP ($154 cost) - see VALE
AMD ($3.83 cost) - I won this hard fought battle. Still have 500 shares from 3,500 original buy - keeping it small and let it be a dice roll. Either $2.50 or $6 is my thoughts on price target, they need to do work because Intel is smoking hot.
TSRA ($26 cost) - Long-term investment, small position but imaging division is undervalued. It's worth $35-40 but won't see it until 2011.
HES ($51 cost) - Small position but dirty cheap. Has no momentum. If you want a long-term energy play, HES is probably worth $70 a share, just will take time.
TSO (Cost $13.20) - Trading position on refiner rally. Will sell soon.
*All in all, I keep my trading positions in higher dollar amount. The long-term buys are small dollar amounts but believe I will make money on them. It will take time and tie up capital, therefore, I keep them smaller in size. These long-term plays have good IRA prospects (the TSRA is a bit uncertain).
BAC (Cost high $11's) - Best value for the banks. I may dip more if we get cheaper. I hate to sell it here because I think it will touch $20 by year end and high $20's by end of 2010. I rather just hold on to shorts to hedge out the losses and let it hold.
F (Cost $4.925) - Great long but will probably drop more. I will hold this for years and want a $10 price target before I sell. The company probably will do a equity offering soon and needs to work on labor costs.
Short IYR ($40.60 short price) - REITS are overextended, I will let them pause and cover.
Short LVS ($14.20 short price) - Swaine Flu short due to rising fears of flu, may weaken travel trips to vacation spots (hotels, airplaines, casinos, crusies, etc.)
Short RCL ($19.28 short price) - same thesis as LVS
PEP ($56.60 cost) - Slow money investment. Shares are undervalued, company has 3% dividend and the purchase of bottlers will save $400m in annual savings due 2012. I think it can print $65-70 per share but not overnight. The value is in the snack food business, Coke doesn't have it.
Short QQQQ ($40.54 short price) - Market correction, shorting this gets me short the Nasdaq index.
RIG ($72.75 cost) - Cheap oil exploration and the company has the best quality. Oil is the key watch on this. If oil holds $70 for time, exploration projects comeback and these guys control deepwater drilling. I will add if we dip. Long-term hold for me and I think we get $90+.
Short SPY ($103.30 short price) - Market correction, shorting this gets me short the S&P.
STAR (either $23 or $24 cost i can't remember) - Long-term 4G smart phone - internet index play. The company will do good long-term, I will post report soon on it for you guys to read. I overpaid, but will add more in $16-18 level. Long-term we will see $26-30, if not higher.
TWM ($31.25 cost) - Gets me short the Russell Index (times two) double short ETF. Market correction short.
UNG ($14.10 cost) - Biggest loser, down 26% but will hold it. The UNG is poison with a terrible contango in natural gas futures. It's a complicated etf, I am not buying more or selling, will hold for hopes of recovery.
ENTR ($2.45 cost) - Semiconductor firm, makes chips that go into DVR boxes. Dice roll and will hold it out.
LVLT ($1.27 cost) - Piece of s*it. Risky dice roll but firm can't control expenses. It's a tiny position for me and will hold it out unless it gets problmatic.
WY ($37.15 cost) - A great long-term bet on housing. I hate that they are selling lumber yards at low prices but they want to improve balance sheet. I will add more in low$30's and looking for price target of $45 to $50.
SLM ($8.40 cost) - Been in and out of this one but long-term Sallie has some value. Of course, we need those students to get jobs to pay the loans but last quarter was great. They did a lot to improve things. I will add more on dips, it's one of the cheaper finanicals out there but keep in mind - "student loans, jobs, repayment" I think Sallie Mae is out of the woods unless the numbers out smart me, I don't think that is the case..money managers just need trust to buy it up.
VALE ($20 cost) - I am down on this and RTP but don't care. Metals will be high in demand and if we get inflation, I want metals. I will definetly buy more VALE and RTP, my thesis has been explained on this sector already.
RTP ($154 cost) - see VALE
AMD ($3.83 cost) - I won this hard fought battle. Still have 500 shares from 3,500 original buy - keeping it small and let it be a dice roll. Either $2.50 or $6 is my thoughts on price target, they need to do work because Intel is smoking hot.
TSRA ($26 cost) - Long-term investment, small position but imaging division is undervalued. It's worth $35-40 but won't see it until 2011.
HES ($51 cost) - Small position but dirty cheap. Has no momentum. If you want a long-term energy play, HES is probably worth $70 a share, just will take time.
TSO (Cost $13.20) - Trading position on refiner rally. Will sell soon.
*All in all, I keep my trading positions in higher dollar amount. The long-term buys are small dollar amounts but believe I will make money on them. It will take time and tie up capital, therefore, I keep them smaller in size. These long-term plays have good IRA prospects (the TSRA is a bit uncertain).
S&P at Critical Levels
(Source: Charts are constructed by John C Lee - stockcharts.com)We are at critical levels on the S&P.
1. The top chart illustrates a trading range that we have developed on the S&P. This can be bullish or bearish but please do NOT base a investment decision solely on a chart. Per the chart, it looks like if we break 1012, then we will see 1005. If we break that, I think 980 looks probable. However, also in the top chart, we see a bull-flag tilt highlighted in blue, which is bullish and if we can hold the range, it could represent a good buying opportunity and then sell those longs a the high end of the range (green top boundary) and 1035.
2. The second chart highlights a strong trend line from the March bottom. The quote "the trend is your friend" is a good rule of thumb of most trades; however, when risk management disiplines kick in, traders will sell their hand when that trend line on chart #2 breaks and we are looking close. Right now futures indicate a 1012 open but it's all about the "closing" number.
We also have a ISM data this morning (at 10a est) so that will move markets. If data looks interesting, I may cover some shorts.
As for yesterday's action, I bought PEP because it fit my criteria of international strength. cheap on valuation, solid dividend, low betas etc. If market tanks, I believe consumer staples could appreciate as well. In addition, low beta names will drop less (normally) in big downturns.
As for shorts here is my currently short book:
Long TWM, short IYR, short SPY, short QQQQ, short LVS, short RCL
Monday, August 31, 2009
Stocks Overvalued?
The top chart (blue) shows S&P Index value and the bottom chart (teal) shows the % of S&P stocks that are above the 200 day moving average. Needless to say, valuations are a bit high here, hence my bearish bias!
Market Update
We are starting to see some correction in the indices; however, the question remains "will the dip buyers run in and buy it all up?" I don't know but I have NOT covered any of my shorts. Royal Carribean (RCL) was a easy short at $19.50 but go trigger shy. I know many funds are NOT short, so the economic data this week is a must for the bulls. If bad data appears, this could be all she wrote for the year on the S&P.
As for buys, I will wait to see what is going on. I will add to low beta names and reduce short exposure into "red" days. I also posted a report on Brazil and may add EWZ on dips. The economic prospects look good but I would like to catch is in the high $40's or low $50's.
As for my economoic views, in terms of "double-dip" recession possibilites, we are seeing some interesting events.
1. North Carolina raises sales tax by 1% point this weekend!
2. NYT's article over the weekend highlights consumer spending being pinched.
"A Reluctance to Spend May Be Legacy of Recession" is name of article. For some reason, I can't copy the damn thing - will try later.
All in all, just be smart. The market doesn't seem cheap here and I "believe" we will correct further. However, I have been wrong before...
As for buys, I will wait to see what is going on. I will add to low beta names and reduce short exposure into "red" days. I also posted a report on Brazil and may add EWZ on dips. The economic prospects look good but I would like to catch is in the high $40's or low $50's.
As for my economoic views, in terms of "double-dip" recession possibilites, we are seeing some interesting events.
1. North Carolina raises sales tax by 1% point this weekend!
2. NYT's article over the weekend highlights consumer spending being pinched.
"A Reluctance to Spend May Be Legacy of Recession" is name of article. For some reason, I can't copy the damn thing - will try later.
All in all, just be smart. The market doesn't seem cheap here and I "believe" we will correct further. However, I have been wrong before...
Market Outlook - August 31st
Well, we are entering a big week full of data and month end, it will be rather interesting to say the least. Below illustrates my portfolios and each are positioned for a correction. Since March, I am been looking for $105 on the SPY and that objective has been considered “close enough” for my taking. Since it seems achieved, I began building heavy short exposure. I believe we can either have a quick, shallow correction of 3-5% OR if economic data circulates fear, we could see a 10-15% correction across the indices. Then again, we may not. In terms of being "overbought" the NASDAQ is a touch overbought but the NYSE seems more "overbought". That being said, I have found a few stocks that have good value. I will post them when I buy this week; however, these are considered “slow money” with solid dividends and low betas. If you are an investor with a longer-term time focus (rather than 2 weeks) these are worth a look. I will hold these names regardless of a fierce “correction” because these firms have solid business models, are cheap, and have underperformed the junk.
Portfolio 1: Long/Short Book
Short Exposure 77% - Short QQQQ, Short IYR, Short SPY, Short LVS, Long TWM
Long Exposure 23% - Long F, BAC, RIG, STAR, and UNG
Portfolio 2: Long Only Book
Long Exposure 55% - Long ENTER, LVLT, WY, SLM, VALE, RTP, AMD, TSRA, HES, TSO
Cash 45%
Portfolio 1: Long/Short Book
Short Exposure 77% - Short QQQQ, Short IYR, Short SPY, Short LVS, Long TWM
Long Exposure 23% - Long F, BAC, RIG, STAR, and UNG
Portfolio 2: Long Only Book
Long Exposure 55% - Long ENTER, LVLT, WY, SLM, VALE, RTP, AMD, TSRA, HES, TSO
Cash 45%
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