HIG & PRU

(Source: Sterne Agee - click each to enlarge)

I along both PRU and HIG. The analyst has buy on PRU and a sell on HIG. As you know, RF is a renegrade and ignores analyst because his "voices" guide him. In my view, there is no reason why PRU shouldn't be a $45 or 50 dollar stock by year end and HIG is my "pet". MET is another good look, as well as LNC which I am also long (but it's a short-term trading long). I caution that the sector is very risky due to uncertainty about the books of these firms but I honestly believe if you want to take a shot a risky play, the sectors implied volatility has dropped and I believe their earnings will be strong. The sector is trading at very low PE's and can easily boom 30-50%...I am talking in weeks. Instiutional buying wants the green flag and them boom, they are in these bad boys (very underowned group).

RF Buy HIG

Bought 200 at 10.44

FTK

I haven't sold a share of my 1500 share position but I need to share some dirt

My sources say that the firm has debt coming due in Aug and are being Strungle along with wells Fargo because they won't lend it. The other source is a equity offering but shares are so low they will not want to do it. They have the option to convert prefereds into common to meet the payment and I personally believe its priced in
The firm fired their investor relations guy and from what I hear, have no returned calls to big holders, hence the selling. The CEO has tons of shares, so he doesn't want to see bankruptcy. This is the card in the deck I like because he will file before he sells or will do everything in his power to get funding because they got a chance

Market

Down .50% but we close up! Putting balls on line now!

RF Buys

Bought 70 PRU at 33.83

Bought 100 BGU at 29.44 for daytrade

Market Update

Futures weak to rumors of job cuts at cisco and chevron says earnings will be weak because of refining and weak dollar

This market will be very difficult for the next 6 or 8 weeks as many hedge funds are taking the summer off due to catching the bottom. Volume will be weak, so wr could see down days and up day but this is a day traders dream market because the big dogs are away.

I will be purchasing stuff for a 6 month timeline because daytrading is not my style and I don't I will sell anything.. Yet

Goldman Sachs Exposed?

The Great American Bubble Machine -Goldman-Sachs and the crash

RF Buy TOPS

Bought 400 at 1.59

Very Risky Stock! Warning!

RFs Final Market Prediction

The market is rallying but nothing major. I believe this earnings season will be a surprise but next season will be bigger. I believe the s and p will trade at 930 high end to 845 or 870 low end, in a range for the next 2 months as summer volume takes place. I see value being created with energy and some financials and tech. I don't believe we will see 700 or whatever CNBC predicts because there is stablization in home pricing, PMI is rising, inventories are being restocked, stimulus will take place in late 2009, which will be seen regardless how dumb it is. As end of summer approaches, the green shoots will be more real in my view from supply sides and volume will increase, creating a huge rally in stocks to 1050 on s&p. The key is to have cash and buy the dips and short or sell the rips. I am more convinced than ever that we have not even begin to see big rally..we shall see if RF wins or loses.

CIEN

Upgraded today

RF Buy FRO

Bought 50 more at 20.15

Degenerate Gamblers R Us

That is my new nickname for market, carry on! Back in Session


As for market near term it will be back in forth but I will buy dips agressively because we will have strong fall, I am looking for 1050 on s and p still!

Special Request: AMD

(Source: Wedbush Morgan - click to enlarge)

Here is a note, for my fellow brother that is in the house of pain with me....

I think it's worth most than them but just keep the play tiny in size.

RF's Long Portfolio Model

(click to enlarge)

Above is how I construct a "long" portfolio model. Note, your portfolio would probably have to be at least $50,000+ or so, which some people have or some may just have a $1,500, which is fine because I started out a long time ago with less than that. With the market the way it is now, I would have at least a 25-50% cash position, just incase we fall to 825 or so you can buy some good stuff cheap and make a sharper profit. Anyways, here is my model and I allocate them in my proportions. On the left, you see the S&P weights, however, I would be careful about going "all-in" here. I would buy about 2 or 3 names per sector but no more than 6. So for example for Tech (18%) I would buy (for illustration) Dell (3%), MSFT (3%), TQNT (3%), CSCO (3%) INTC (3%), and IBM (3%). Every so often I would rebalance that but always keep technology at 18% and once it exceeded the value, I would trim the exceeding balance and move to another sector or cash account. I believe Financials are more of a 2 year investment sector but Tech, Materials, Industrials, and Energy will be the hot sectors for the rest of the year. Utilities will be tough longer-term but in the short-term should do ok. I believe many fund managers will sell utilities (buy them for dividend) and buy bonds instead as interest rates rise, plus the the Cap & Trade deal could harm profits for no reason.

As for traders with limited capital, it is much harder to diversify but I will continue to give you my ideas. I love shippers in EXM and GNK but if economic fears come, the sector will be hit since the Baltic Dry Index is weakening and fears of recovery collaspe (shipping is major economic indicator). GLW is a great buy at $14 and even better below. It's fair value for this year should be at least $17+ and could max out at $20. TQNT is another chip that makes semiconductors for the iPhone. It's had a huge run but the stock could easily hit $6+. Energy names like COP, HES, and CVX are dirt cheap; however, may get cheaper. I own alot of the ERX which is a triple levered index fund on the sector. In time, once oil stablizes, these names all have +30% upside..just don't rush in and have a little time.

If you have a longer-term horizon, say 2 years, I like Financials the best, via BAC and I am studying Life Insurers. The sector is VERY RISKY because of TARP obligations and capital requirements; however, if you believe they are out of the woods, the sector could ROAR. I will add more in time but these are risky (however, implied volatility has decreased). If we catch a rally, these names could move 30% in 10 days, no problem. LNC is a good one but let me study the rest first and provide research on my findings, so you can read it for yourself.

Market Wrapups

Intense day for RF, I will be back to post model portfolio for a Trade 247 special report!

RF Buy LNC

Bought 100 at 14.90

RF Buy GLW

Bought 50 at 14.05

RF Update

The great depression is back, I'm off to buy guns and gold

Position Update: ERX (Oil Stocks)

Yesterday, Barclays Capital adjusted estimates for major oil companies:

Barclays raised Hess Corp to overweight from equal weight.

But Alon USA Energy saw its Barclays price target cut to $8 from $9 with an underweight rating.

Barclays dropped its price target for Chevron to $96 from $99, which is still way above its

ConocoPhillips saw its Barclays price target edge down from $61 to $59.

The price target for Exxon Mobil was upped by Barclays to $91 from $87.

Murphy Oil saw its Barclays price target rise to $73 from $72.

Petro Canada’s price target got cut by Barclays to C$63 from C$64, but had an overweight rating.

Also in Canada, Suncor Energy had its price target reduced to C$49 from C$50 by Barclays.

Market Outlook

The futures stayed above the 875 level is very good for the market but my patience with the market seems to be wearing thin. 875 is major support the S&P 500, so if we break that, we will probably fall to either 870 on "high end" or 825 on low end. The lowest possible range is 777 and I would say the chances of breaking 777 on the S&P is less than 10%.

I will refrain from buying and hope I catch some luck on GNK. I have about a 40% cash position but the big problem is that 3/4's of that is tied on option commitments. I need GNK to stay above $19 come next Friday, so we I hope it happens...if not, I will have boatloads of GNK.

As for my S&P target of 880, it has been met and I am standing by 1050+ by late summer/early Fall

RF Favorite Longs - TQNT

(Source: Barclays Capital - click image to enlarge)

This is probably my favorite semiconductor. I think this stock will do good for years to come and for short-term trading, as the 4G scene will be a huge success over the next 2-3 years. I think the stock could print 40-80% higher from current levels in time. I will accumulate more in the mid $4's.

RF Favorite Longs - BAC

(Source: Morgan Stanley-click image above)

Bank of America is one of my favorite investment ideas in the entire market. The stock carries it's risk because it is VERY difficult to truly understand if the bank write-downs or losses will be one-time occurences or may last a few quarters. The main upside will take time and I believe the Merill Lynch will be the key driver. Merill Lynch was a MONSTER bank in my early trading days, I remember trading that stock at like $90 bucks a share until Stan "the man" O'Neill destroyed the company. Anyways, they will probably earn $.50 cents a share this year, so the stock may be fairly valued today but if the "bear" case scenario highlighted above doesn't occur, Bank of America should be able to earn $2.50 - $3 EPS (my view, lower than MS estimates). In my view, it will be 2011 or roughly 24-30 months until we see that and if which case, if you apply a historic 10x PE multiple to those earnings, give Bank of America a $25-30 price target.

Market Wrapup

I got my clock cleaned today, I'm off to hurl bowling balls at people

Energy

Expanding energy longs here, with ERX at 24.30

Market Wrapup

Luckily I read the picture today and aggressively bought the dip late morning and early afternoon, s@p at 888 to 890 ish. I think we are due for a bounce, so I covered all of my shorts and went agressive on the long side, focusing on energy, shippers, and some banks via BAC.

I am tempted to dip into the insurers ring with a purchase of hig, met, or lnc but I will refrain for now.

As for crude, we might see 60 but I don't think we will see the 55 that every CNBC pundit is calling for...instead I feel that oil could be pausing here before it moves higher. The truth in oil relies in the dollar in my view, so watch uup, lower dollar, higher oil.

I'm outta here, lata

RF Buy FRO

Bought 75 at 21.70

RF Buy CIEN

Bought 150 at 9.07

RF Buys

Bought 75 more GNK at 19.05

Covered ISRG short at 154.50 plus 5 points wins

RF Buys and Sells

Bought 150 BAC at 12.12

Bought 150 EXM at 5.98

Bought 200 ERX at 24.45

Sold all my TZA for 11% gain

Only short is ISRG and I may cover,, betting on sideways correction

Update 2

The market is getting smoked, led by the selloff in oil. The man problem is that many traders placed bets in Feb and March betting on a 3 or 4 quarter recovery and now it may not happen, as the economY seems only slightly improve. We are seeing shorting in oil, a big global indicator, as many bears believe demand will slow globally since we are still in the recession.

I believe this remains a sideways correction and am just buying stuff I like and shorting select names. My favorite short is ISRG as many hospitals our overburdened with debt and will not spend money on their Da Vinci products. On the long side, I like BAC, MSFT, and shippers like GNK.

We need some good news and earnings may be it. Many firms have trimmed expenses, so the bottom lines might be fat. 3 banks report this week and Alcoa reports Wednesday,, earnings will tell the tale

RF Buy GNK

Bought 50 more at 19.58

Sold 17.50 puts, not naked. 40 cents premium

Update

Market weak here early in PM (premarket). Oil getting hammered hard. I will probably dip back into the DXO but not right here. I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop another 50 cents but it might not.

I got tons of cash and will likely deploy it on the long side and look at GNK and GLW. BAC isn't bad either but bank earnings are this week, so who knows what will happen.

I will focus on options for July by writing straddles on stocks. I will post

Market Outlook

The futures above show that if we hold these levels at the open, we should open about 1% lower on the s&p and also the rest of the indices.

With 3rd quarter full in swing, the game has changed from aggressive offense to strategic defense. I will come out and say that I have never had a positive July! Everyone also complains about May being terrible but July has always been my worst month. Friday’s jobs number gave the shorts the ball, so the question is will dip buyers come in and take advantage of the lower price levels OR will the shorts begin to take us down further, as funds get skeptical of the economic recovery. I believe that short positions must be in a person’s portfolio now, due to the lack of strength in the market; however, time is everything. Honestly, it may be too late to short at these levels, so I need to see the tape tomorrow to see.

As for long/short exposure, I will remain net long and from time to time, switch to net short. For some newbies, let me clarify this terminology. Say I have a portfolio of $10,000. If I had $6,000 in “long” position and $4,000 of “short” positions, I am net long by 20%. If I change it to $6,000 “short” and $4,000 long, I am net short by 20%. I will develop forecasts of the markets over day periods, then allocate my positions pending upon my market thesis. Right now, I do not believe it is a good time to be “all-in” long, nor “all-in” short….just a small mix of both, with a bias maybe to the long side (for now).
Here are my favorite plays, both long and short:

Longs: BAC, GNK, GLW, EXM, energy sector (for a starter position), MSFT, and tech.
Shorts: ISRG, BIDU, AMZN, select solar and retail.

If you don’t have a margin account and cannot short, my favorite ultrashort is the TWM. Keep in mind these are NOT long-term investments because you WILL get crushed. I ONLY HOLD THEM FOR 2-5 DAYS MAX. It’s important to note this because people don’t understand them but truly these are levered day trading instruments on indexes. Regardless, I like to buy them as a hedge on my longs, in case the market tanks, these shares will rise in value and my losses are not as bad. I then sell them for a profit and see on the cash for a bit until the “longs” seek revenge and go up.

With this market decline, I might cover the rest of my shorts…875 is key support which is VERY strong, so if we break that, we are in big trouble.

Goldman Sachs - Trading Scandal?

http://blogs.reuters.com/commentaries/2009/07/05/a-goldman-trading-scandal/

This is a MUST read!