It's rather obvious that the old leader (financials) is back and leading the way again.
The question is how long will it last?
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Call of the week - TVL (66% - 2 Day Gain)
Bottom Line: RF and the Trade247 followers will not be denied!
Technical Breakouts Revisited - ACO
Here was the second breakout candidate. The above chart highlights the original call and the commentary. The chart below highlights the breakout above resistance (blue line). The original chart highlights the call at $19.17 and it closed Friday at $22.57. The Friday close is around a "new" resistance level (Jan 2009 high), so if it looks as if it will fail, I would take some off. However, if it breaks, it should run another 1-2 points.
RF's 10-Day Return: +17.7%
I don't own it (wish I did).
Trade accordingly
Technical Breakouts Revisited - APC
On April 26th, I gave you two possible technical breakouts. Let's review APC. On April 26th, I put it up and bought it around $44 and said that the key resistance level was $45 and the trade set up for a nice risk/reward. The chart below shows the chart and the commentary from April 26th.The chart above is the revisited chart, highlighting the breakout from the contained boundaries (highlighted in blue). I said we could run between $46-$54, and right now we are at $52. This is a GREAT move for a natural gas powerhouse, valued over $20 billion in market cap.
RF's 10-Day Return: +18.1%
Disclosure: I sold 1/4 of my position, letting the rest ride.
Original post:
http://trade247.blogspot.com/2009/04/possible-technical-breakouts.html
Weekend Thoughts
Wow, what a week. Very little of a pullback and strong trading allowed me to pull ahead this week, while it looked a little bad earlier in the week. I took some hits on FTK but I had strong small caps that popped over 20% a day, along with a big FAZ trade to pull ahead strong. Semiconductors fell very hard yesterday, with the Philly Semiconductor Index down big. This showed me that money managers are taking profits, in the stocks where the big profits were (semiconductors) and started to buy finanicals. On that dip, I bought some semiconductors via RFMD and will buy more on the dips. The numbers I am seeing are INCREDIBLE for semiconductors and I believe they can move way higher. Semiconductor fab utilization rates should bounce back during the second quarter of the year,
As for Banks, Financials have had a MONSTER run but are underowned compared to Technology. So in essence, since there is more clarity, banks can move higher. I also believe REITs will move higher on this news. Energy is underowned as well but is starting to get bought. Crude is on FIRE and I am hearing $62-64 a bar. in the next 10 days, with a possible pullback to $53.
Going forward, I will adjust my long portfolio like this for the remaining year:
Sell (maybe short) Utilities
Sell (maybe short) Consumer Staples
Neutral on Healthcare
Buy Consumer Discretionary
Buy REITs
Buy select Financials
Buy Technology
Buy Select Energy
Buy Global Industrials, while shorting select ones that have high estimates
Buy Commodities
As for Banks, Financials have had a MONSTER run but are underowned compared to Technology. So in essence, since there is more clarity, banks can move higher. I also believe REITs will move higher on this news. Energy is underowned as well but is starting to get bought. Crude is on FIRE and I am hearing $62-64 a bar. in the next 10 days, with a possible pullback to $53.
Going forward, I will adjust my long portfolio like this for the remaining year:
Sell (maybe short) Utilities
Sell (maybe short) Consumer Staples
Neutral on Healthcare
Buy Consumer Discretionary
Buy REITs
Buy select Financials
Buy Technology
Buy Select Energy
Buy Global Industrials, while shorting select ones that have high estimates
Buy Commodities
PCR
I forgot this one for the list as well, below is the proof.
Closed over $23 Friday, 125% 6 week gain. Sold it at $16 thinking I did something, hope someone is still long this one.
http://trade247.blogspot.com/2009/03/action-for-march-9th.html/
Closed over $23 Friday, 125% 6 week gain. Sold it at $16 thinking I did something, hope someone is still long this one.
http://trade247.blogspot.com/2009/03/action-for-march-9th.html/
Friday, May 8, 2009
Market Wrapup
Two words: small caps
TVL 42% day gain
ABK 21% day gain
What else can you want for a Friday?
TVL 42% day gain
ABK 21% day gain
What else can you want for a Friday?
RF Sell ABK
Sold all +21% day gain
It could still run but just want to minimize my small cap exposure
It could still run but just want to minimize my small cap exposure
RF Short SRS
LOL Don't try this home folks.....
Going short an ultrashort, shorted 100 SRS @$20.30 into the bell and will sell at the end of TODAY.
$21.30 stop loss here
Going short an ultrashort, shorted 100 SRS @$20.30 into the bell and will sell at the end of TODAY.
$21.30 stop loss here
DRYS
3 analyst downgrades, hence the shipper selloff
Investors need to get over drys and by the real shipper, GNK
Investors need to get over drys and by the real shipper, GNK
CNBC alert RF shoots 40 on front 9
As for the market, its a battle between the bears and the bulls. The bears are pressing the shorts now hard in the financials because they believe its all priced in. The bulls want exposure because most have huge cash piles because they are late to the game. I would keep high cash and buy the dips.
Market Outlook
Get ready to rock and roll. The market should roll today; however, the big unemployment report is at 8:30a. I covered most of my shorts yesterday and will look to position some longs, for today at least.
I like shippers the best via: DRYS, GNK, EXM, and for a spec TOPS
I also have an order to buy some piece of crap financials, via bond insurers Ambak, ABK. I like it under $1.40.
As far as video games go, I am tempted to get long some ATVI around $11ish. I think it can go to $13-14.
I'm will be golfing this AM, so won't be back until noon. Good luck
I like shippers the best via: DRYS, GNK, EXM, and for a spec TOPS
I also have an order to buy some piece of crap financials, via bond insurers Ambak, ABK. I like it under $1.40.
As far as video games go, I am tempted to get long some ATVI around $11ish. I think it can go to $13-14.
I'm will be golfing this AM, so won't be back until noon. Good luck
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Technology Part II
(Click to enlarge)
Tech in my view is and will remain to be the hottest sector for 2009. Over the past few months, many events have transpired when M&A has been insanely active. John Chambers, CEO of Cisco, has made 3 purchases in the past 90 days. Sun Microsystems has been purchased by Oracle and Broadcom is trying to go hostile for Emulex. I believe the M&A in technology will continue to happen throughout 2009 and I also believe that many fund managers will buy tech because of the “hot” factor behind it and it’s lack of performance since the tech bubble.
As for business services, many firms will invest in key technology trends going forward, over the next few years. The main trends seem to be virtualization and storage network convergence.
Above is a "map out" of the major technology vendors in the business. Alot of these tech firms has tons of cash on the books and make to invest agressively, so in my view, I would use this as a way to view potential acquistion candidates. For example, what I do is study up on the firm's business segments and identify the gaps. From there, I try to determine if they want to be in a particular segment and if so, who would they buy, in order to become a new entrant. A little easier layout of this is to look at the partners that serve these firms. It is a good chance that the bigger vendor will buy the partners to reduce costs and earn more money. We see this with the Broadcom bid for Emulex. Lastly, another way to approach this is to find "piggyback" plays. For example let's say IBM is smoking hot and is guiding higher their revenue estimates. The next step is to find what revenue streams are going to be hot, then link these back to the "partners".
With that being said, here are some sector plays that will benefit from upcoming trends in technology spending/growth:
Internet: GOOG and AMZN. Google really seems to be a monopoly is my view and as business/web services continue to grow, these two firm will benefit the most in my view. Amazon is releasing a bigger Kindle, costing about $500, and is aimed providing a way for textbooks.
Hardware: IBM, DELL, and HPQ.
IT Services: ACN
Semiconductors: BRCM and INTC will benefit for a larger standpoint. I like FCS, RFMD, and ATHR for speculative, more niche plays. TSM is another great semiconductor firm, based in Taiwan and their orders are increasing dramatically from previous quarters.
Software: ORCL and VMW are the best direct software plays that benefit from the growth in virtualization. As for software in general, SAP is another firm I like; however, their last quarter wasn't too great due to weaker than expected business spending.
Communication Technology: JNPR has been my personal favorite but CSCO is good as well. I also really like BRCD for a cheaper, speculative play.
Video Games are Still Compelling
Through the reckage today, I noticed that Deutsche Bank made a big upgrade today on video game maker THQ (symbol: THQI). Deutsche Banks upped the price target to $6, which sent the stock up 20% today. This is rather interesting because THQ reported Wednesday and posted a wider-than expected lost. Activision Blizzard (ATVI) reported after the bell today and beat estimates, sending shares up about 3% in AH trading. I looked at firms today and balance sheets for the industry players are rather interesting:
THQI - Nearly 48% of the stock is cash. It has the highest risk of any in the group and is the most sensitive to market fluculations. YTD return is 20% and has no long-term debt.
ATVI - Solid company with strong growth in the online gaming though WarCraft and the new Guitar Hero is due out in June. It also got added to the Goldman Sachs conviction buy list with a $14 or $15 price target. 14% of the stock price is cash, has no long-term debt, and $3 billion in cash.
TTWO- A classic RF favorite. Has had a big run since the $6.25 purchase but still is cheap in some aspects. Nearly 30% of the stock price is cash and they have no long-term debt. This year will be weak for them but they have a monster cash cow in Grand Theft Auto. In my view, they will probably lose money every quarter until GTA is reflected in their earnings. If they can become profitable, without GTA, the stock will shoot higher. There is also takeover rumors in this one.
ERTS- This is an interesting one. There are many rumors that Apple is in talks to buy ERTS but I don't know if that is true. The options are trading very heavy in volume but it's interesting. About 32% of the stock price is cash but the problem is that they are losing money. They have profitable sporting games but need to get their operations in manner. However, ERTS has no long-term debt.
All in all, the sector seems very attractive because of their balance sheets. Right now, the only profitable one is ATVI. Video game sales fell a little last month but none of these firms seem to deal with liquidity issues and for the most part, video game sales are stable and growing. In addition, each of these game makers have different niches, which fits all audiences. The speculative play is THQ but their product portfolio is not the best; however, the DB analyst seems something. I might buy one of the four soon but want to research it a little more.
THQI - Nearly 48% of the stock is cash. It has the highest risk of any in the group and is the most sensitive to market fluculations. YTD return is 20% and has no long-term debt.
ATVI - Solid company with strong growth in the online gaming though WarCraft and the new Guitar Hero is due out in June. It also got added to the Goldman Sachs conviction buy list with a $14 or $15 price target. 14% of the stock price is cash, has no long-term debt, and $3 billion in cash.
TTWO- A classic RF favorite. Has had a big run since the $6.25 purchase but still is cheap in some aspects. Nearly 30% of the stock price is cash and they have no long-term debt. This year will be weak for them but they have a monster cash cow in Grand Theft Auto. In my view, they will probably lose money every quarter until GTA is reflected in their earnings. If they can become profitable, without GTA, the stock will shoot higher. There is also takeover rumors in this one.
ERTS- This is an interesting one. There are many rumors that Apple is in talks to buy ERTS but I don't know if that is true. The options are trading very heavy in volume but it's interesting. About 32% of the stock price is cash but the problem is that they are losing money. They have profitable sporting games but need to get their operations in manner. However, ERTS has no long-term debt.
All in all, the sector seems very attractive because of their balance sheets. Right now, the only profitable one is ATVI. Video game sales fell a little last month but none of these firms seem to deal with liquidity issues and for the most part, video game sales are stable and growing. In addition, each of these game makers have different niches, which fits all audiences. The speculative play is THQ but their product portfolio is not the best; however, the DB analyst seems something. I might buy one of the four soon but want to research it a little more.
RF Sell QID
Sold QID in AH at $36.75, +5% profit
Covering my shorts here, still have the SDS and VXX for hedges.
Covered AAPL at $129.20 in AH, +$3.00 gain
Covering my shorts here, still have the SDS and VXX for hedges.
Covered AAPL at $129.20 in AH, +$3.00 gain
Market Wrapup
Interesting day and thankfully, for the sanity of RF, the market dipped. I took off some of my short exposure by covering the CSCO short and selling my FAZ, but still have a short position on AAPL and I am long ultrashorts via SRS, QID, and SDS.
FTK had a meltdown after a conference call but I am holding incase we gap up. Fund managers are talking 10,000 on the DOW by end of summer, which is crazy but it can happen. Stress test results come up here soon (5pm) so it will be interesting to see how the market reacts. Wells Fargo just announced they will be offering $6M in new stock, to be priced at $20-22.50.
A lot of the pros are on the sidelines because noone knows what will happen. I personally believe it's over played and the news is already in but we shall see. My best advice is to keep cash and buy "bigger" companies which low debt levels. The small caps that I play rip hard but I only play a tiny bit in them. They can roll over hard in a bad market; therefore, I don't want to get hit hard because of this.
In conclusion, stick to your gut. This morning the market tried to influence me, opening up 929 on the S&P and I sold my SKF/FAZ for $1100 loss and covered my CSCO short for a $0. The whole time I felt we were going down and my gut told me so, while the CNBC cheerleaders and charists are saying we are going to 950. Anyways, at 9:40a, I loaded up on FAZ and re-shorted CSCO, even though the market was at 929, because I trusted my gut. As a result, the orginial losses are down to almost nothing. For today, I lost a tad because of some option values but would have lost a KILLING if I wasn't net short. Good luck and catch you tomorrow, take care.
Update 4:36pm : MS now is issuing $2 in equity
FTK had a meltdown after a conference call but I am holding incase we gap up. Fund managers are talking 10,000 on the DOW by end of summer, which is crazy but it can happen. Stress test results come up here soon (5pm) so it will be interesting to see how the market reacts. Wells Fargo just announced they will be offering $6M in new stock, to be priced at $20-22.50.
A lot of the pros are on the sidelines because noone knows what will happen. I personally believe it's over played and the news is already in but we shall see. My best advice is to keep cash and buy "bigger" companies which low debt levels. The small caps that I play rip hard but I only play a tiny bit in them. They can roll over hard in a bad market; therefore, I don't want to get hit hard because of this.
In conclusion, stick to your gut. This morning the market tried to influence me, opening up 929 on the S&P and I sold my SKF/FAZ for $1100 loss and covered my CSCO short for a $0. The whole time I felt we were going down and my gut told me so, while the CNBC cheerleaders and charists are saying we are going to 950. Anyways, at 9:40a, I loaded up on FAZ and re-shorted CSCO, even though the market was at 929, because I trusted my gut. As a result, the orginial losses are down to almost nothing. For today, I lost a tad because of some option values but would have lost a KILLING if I wasn't net short. Good luck and catch you tomorrow, take care.
Update 4:36pm : MS now is issuing $2 in equity
Small Caps
I would take some profits in the little guys if you got some. Alot depends on tomorrow's move but firms with market caps of over $1B tend to get less than the others.
Special Request for a Craig
Here you go:
I will update the list later but all have mkt cap over $500 million.
ADBE - 12% of stock is cash - 1.73 Beta
AAPL - 22% of stock is cash - 1.87 Beta
AMAT - 11% of stock is cash - .87 Beta
ATHR - 27% of stock is cash - 2.28 Beta
CSCO - 17% of stock is cash - 1.36 Beta
DELL - 28% of stock is cash - 1.52 Beta
EMC - 12% of stock is cash - 1.38 Beta
JNPR - 18% of stock is cash - 1.55 Beta
LOGI - 18% of stock is cash - 2.20 Beta
QCOM - 13% of stock is cash - .88 Beta
TER - 29% of stock is cash - 1.52 Beta
TSM - 11% of stock is cash - .85 Beta
I will update the list later but all have mkt cap over $500 million.
ADBE - 12% of stock is cash - 1.73 Beta
AAPL - 22% of stock is cash - 1.87 Beta
AMAT - 11% of stock is cash - .87 Beta
ATHR - 27% of stock is cash - 2.28 Beta
CSCO - 17% of stock is cash - 1.36 Beta
DELL - 28% of stock is cash - 1.52 Beta
EMC - 12% of stock is cash - 1.38 Beta
JNPR - 18% of stock is cash - 1.55 Beta
LOGI - 18% of stock is cash - 2.20 Beta
QCOM - 13% of stock is cash - .88 Beta
TER - 29% of stock is cash - 1.52 Beta
TSM - 11% of stock is cash - .85 Beta
Stress Test Results
Rumor is that they are saving the results for the after the close, instead of 2pm.
Tech
Technology is getting a big haircut today; however, I am bullish on tech over the next 2-5 months. It's honestly my favorite sector. I am currently short CSCO, AAPL, and long the QID but will cover all soon.
When looking at tech, I am looking at the following:
PCs - I am long Dell and I believe from a fundamental perspective, the company is very cheap and has good upside. Now at $10.80, Dell is a good price to build a starter position.
Chips- Semiconductors are solid as well. The USD is a 2x long semiconductor etf that is a great broad play. FCS, RFMD, SWKS, INTC, TER, and XLNX are some other good names
Software: IBM is probably the best play here; however, it's expensive (cost wise). SAP is a good company too but I like it under $35. ORCL is another great one because they integrate their acquistions better than anyone in the biz, which creates big cost savings.
Hardware: NTGR and LOGI are amazing and I will buy both on dips because they have run up from my first purchases. Both have "class A" balance sheets.
Data Services: BRCD is a good one as well, like it at $5.
When looking at tech, I am looking at the following:
PCs - I am long Dell and I believe from a fundamental perspective, the company is very cheap and has good upside. Now at $10.80, Dell is a good price to build a starter position.
Chips- Semiconductors are solid as well. The USD is a 2x long semiconductor etf that is a great broad play. FCS, RFMD, SWKS, INTC, TER, and XLNX are some other good names
Software: IBM is probably the best play here; however, it's expensive (cost wise). SAP is a good company too but I like it under $35. ORCL is another great one because they integrate their acquistions better than anyone in the biz, which creates big cost savings.
Hardware: NTGR and LOGI are amazing and I will buy both on dips because they have run up from my first purchases. Both have "class A" balance sheets.
Data Services: BRCD is a good one as well, like it at $5.
Market
Kinda see why I went net short?
Frankly, it's too close to call. We could rebound later in the day but I think we will close around 900 on the S&P. I personally believe that the market will "sell the news" when the stress test results come out.
Frankly, it's too close to call. We could rebound later in the day but I think we will close around 900 on the S&P. I personally believe that the market will "sell the news" when the stress test results come out.
FTK
Geez, I go grab something to eat and boom, terrible conf call i guess. I will give it a little time to rebound, i'll put a $2.25 stop in case.
CNO
Yet another one people. Bought at $1.74, sold at $2.10, now at $2.40..
RF' sell list is the new buy list
RF' sell list is the new buy list
RF Cover AAPL
Covered 25% of my position at $128.40 for a +$3 gain...still short tech via AAPL, little CSCO, and the QID
FEED
What this stock guys, old RF favorite and it approaching the 200 day at $4.81.
I might go "all-in" on this one
I might go "all-in" on this one
RF Short Sell - CSCO
Shorted 150 shares at $20.01
I want to grap a quick 50/75 cents and I'm out....day trade for the most part.
I want to grap a quick 50/75 cents and I'm out....day trade for the most part.
RF Sell: FTK, SD
FTK - Stopped out, 12% loss.
SD - sold 25% of my position at $10.60 in premarket (23% gain)
SD - sold 25% of my position at $10.60 in premarket (23% gain)
Market Outlook
Unbelieveable. These financials just won't stop and Einstein here is trying to catch a falling knife with these short bets. My best advice is to just to go golfing and sit 100% cash because the market is ridiculous.
As for my "smart strategy" I have been building short exposure and selling my longs, HOPEFULLY to catch a reversal then quickly dump the longs and let the shorts ride; however, this market is just too strong. I am probably going to sell half of my SKF and FAZ right now and taking my "man hits". Frankly, my market barometer seems to be broken and obviously needs to be trashed but if I was forced to make a market prediction, we should have some momentum this morning then once the actual stress test results are released, we should sell off. Then again, with this market, we might go to 9000 on the down today.
Mutual fund money is on the sidelines but if this market continues to hold, they will be forced in, driving the market way higher. Mutual funds were down big last year and they cannot afford to be down again this year; therefore, they will be forced to put money in the market.
Keep an eye on the small caps from last night and hopefully we can catch a few breakouts. Today will be very interesting to say the least. Note, I am out of the office today, so I will either be golfing or trading like a maniac. Therefore, I provide more commentary on the blog, so check back "more" often. I got a few emails on how I can make this more livetime, so I will figure something out of the summer, with RSS feeds or something of that nature. Until then, my best advice is to check back every 15 minutes.
Jobs reports coming here soon.....sell the news or buy like mad people?
As for my "smart strategy" I have been building short exposure and selling my longs, HOPEFULLY to catch a reversal then quickly dump the longs and let the shorts ride; however, this market is just too strong. I am probably going to sell half of my SKF and FAZ right now and taking my "man hits". Frankly, my market barometer seems to be broken and obviously needs to be trashed but if I was forced to make a market prediction, we should have some momentum this morning then once the actual stress test results are released, we should sell off. Then again, with this market, we might go to 9000 on the down today.
Mutual fund money is on the sidelines but if this market continues to hold, they will be forced in, driving the market way higher. Mutual funds were down big last year and they cannot afford to be down again this year; therefore, they will be forced to put money in the market.
Keep an eye on the small caps from last night and hopefully we can catch a few breakouts. Today will be very interesting to say the least. Note, I am out of the office today, so I will either be golfing or trading like a maniac. Therefore, I provide more commentary on the blog, so check back "more" often. I got a few emails on how I can make this more livetime, so I will figure something out of the summer, with RSS feeds or something of that nature. Until then, my best advice is to check back every 15 minutes.
Jobs reports coming here soon.....sell the news or buy like mad people?
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
RF's Gameplan
Well RF seems to be getting smoked by shorting; however, RF is always ready for plan B. See when the market reverses, it's really unpredictable. When you run from 667 to 919 in 8 weeks, that is a little bit absurd. RF still has a 40% cash position and uses the shorts for a 1 or 2 push down, then will cash out to buy longs on my list. Mother market wants to take RF down and so far with the melt up in Finnies and the S&P, she is moving good. Frankly, I am a bit mixed. I am net short but have some tiny small caps that can rip 20% in a day to hedge myself.
My advice is to play it smart and know that RF is going against the trend and the wave. RF might lose this one but I am very skeptical. Frankly, the smart person would sit all in cash with a tiny hedge and some longs, but as you know, RF is manaic that likes to ride the motorcycle through flaming circles.
If you want to get long and that is cool, i'd look at some tiny stocks that could run. Here are a few:
PACR, GMO, TVL, ABK, FLOW (had a big run today, i own it), SD, FRP, BRCD
When (or if) we pullback, I will buy selective parts of tech and some oil based names. I will post after I complete the position. Until then, trade accordingly and responsibly (unlike me) and see if the bulls will fill the DOW 9000 gap.
My advice is to play it smart and know that RF is going against the trend and the wave. RF might lose this one but I am very skeptical. Frankly, the smart person would sit all in cash with a tiny hedge and some longs, but as you know, RF is manaic that likes to ride the motorcycle through flaming circles.
If you want to get long and that is cool, i'd look at some tiny stocks that could run. Here are a few:
PACR, GMO, TVL, ABK, FLOW (had a big run today, i own it), SD, FRP, BRCD
When (or if) we pullback, I will buy selective parts of tech and some oil based names. I will post after I complete the position. Until then, trade accordingly and responsibly (unlike me) and see if the bulls will fill the DOW 9000 gap.
CDNS
Remember when we bought the $5 May calls at $.20? Cramer pumped it tonight, therefore, bada bing!
Market Wrapup
Rough day for me, this market is wild. I took some losses on some ultrashorts and don't know why I continue to buy the damn things. I bought more at the end of the day to improve my cost but I'm getting hit hard. My shippers and commodities plays like CLF saved me and I bought tiny stocks to save me. I plan to day trade small caps to offset my ultrashort loses.
The SKF is killing me so I'm I might take the hit but I know when I do the market will dive 10%.
CSCO had good numbers which can move the market higher and if so ill keep tight leashes on the shorts and day trade like a maniac to offset gains.
I'd play safe here, either way
The SKF is killing me so I'm I might take the hit but I know when I do the market will dive 10%.
CSCO had good numbers which can move the market higher and if so ill keep tight leashes on the shorts and day trade like a maniac to offset gains.
I'd play safe here, either way
Market Outlook
Hopefully we have a more exciting day today, than we had yesterday but I doubt it. We have the ADP report coming up but the big data comes tomorrow with the stress test results and then Friday with the unemployment report. I don't know what financials will do but I believe there will be some volatility. I own the VIX and am considering playing an outward straddle on the FAZ. I still own SKF but might write calls on my position, to protect myself. Writing covered calls on any of your position is a good strategy now in my opinion. The upside may be capped but you will get a "extra dividend".
I will be honest, the BAC is very alarming. If they $35 billion, that will create massive dilution to the common equity shares. Also, the GM 1 to 100 stock split is hilarious. The stock would be $185, with barely any outstanding, and in my view, it won't work because short sellers will pounce in and short it down to $75.
As for my trading account, I have:
ACH (Chinense Aluminum)
ATHR (Integrated circuits semiconductor)
CNO (speculative breakout candidate)
DELL (cheap PCs)
EXM (shippers-reports after the bell I believe)
SKF (ultrashort finanicals)
FXP (ultrashort china index)
GIGM (chinese gambling player)
GNK (shippers)
NXG (gold play/speculative breakout candidate)
SD (cheapo energy)
SDS (ultrashort S&P-primary hedge but my patience is thin)
SONS (speculative play - communication networks)
VXX (short term VIX futures etf)
FCS (semiconductor)
JJC (copper etf)
EWZ (brazil etf)
Keep in mind, if we reverse and head lower, the small cap/spec breakouts tend to get nailed first, so although small caps are fun with big swings, they bit hard on any pullbacks.
I will be honest, the BAC is very alarming. If they $35 billion, that will create massive dilution to the common equity shares. Also, the GM 1 to 100 stock split is hilarious. The stock would be $185, with barely any outstanding, and in my view, it won't work because short sellers will pounce in and short it down to $75.
As for my trading account, I have:
ACH (Chinense Aluminum)
ATHR (Integrated circuits semiconductor)
CNO (speculative breakout candidate)
DELL (cheap PCs)
EXM (shippers-reports after the bell I believe)
SKF (ultrashort finanicals)
FXP (ultrashort china index)
GIGM (chinese gambling player)
GNK (shippers)
NXG (gold play/speculative breakout candidate)
SD (cheapo energy)
SDS (ultrashort S&P-primary hedge but my patience is thin)
SONS (speculative play - communication networks)
VXX (short term VIX futures etf)
FCS (semiconductor)
JJC (copper etf)
EWZ (brazil etf)
Keep in mind, if we reverse and head lower, the small cap/spec breakouts tend to get nailed first, so although small caps are fun with big swings, they bit hard on any pullbacks.
RF Looks Out For You!
It's been 6 1/2 weeks since I started my blog and I just wanted to share some good memories. Above have been the top 15 calls since the start. 4 doubles, 1 near triple, and 1 near quadruple is not too shabby for only 6 weeks lol.Bottom Line: RF and his followers will not be denied!
(BTW that excludes options plays and short sales)
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
RF Sell LVS
Sold other half at 12.05 in AH. Revenues same as Q1 08, wow what a depression lol
Compounded 160% gain
Winner of casino battle: RF
Compounded 160% gain
Winner of casino battle: RF
GIGM
Added some at 6.30
Barney Frank to unveil legislation tomorrow on removing. US ban on online gambling! Look at CRYP July calls today!
Barney Frank to unveil legislation tomorrow on removing. US ban on online gambling! Look at CRYP July calls today!
Boring
This a great day to have a jumping jack competiton with somebody or go take a nap. The market is being dumb and I have no feeling. I'm 25% short, %25 long, and 50% cash. Ill figure what ill do in the next few hours.
RF Sell FTK
Sold at 2.96
Again this could go higher but I am not sure about this market and I want more cash. Selling for a 20% day (24 hour gain)
Again this could go higher but I am not sure about this market and I want more cash. Selling for a 20% day (24 hour gain)
Market Outlook
Welcome people to the Cinco de Mayo edition of the market outlook. Futures look relatively stable this morning, which is good since there is no Cinco de Mayo meltdown (well at least not yet). Today, I have 3 big earnings reports: SONS, CBB, and LVS. SONS numbers were lousy but there is no pre-market trading in the stock, so I am unsure how it will go.
As for the market, yesterday was an epic short squeeze. I don't believe the rally is sustainable but the cheerleaders at CNBC believe so. One thing I have learned, especially regarding commodity based markets, is that markets overshoot both ways. Buffett said it best it "when others are fearful you need to be greedy; and when others are greedy, you need to be fearful". We have moved from 667 to 907 in 7 weeks, which is a monster move; however, when greed drives a market, it goes higher, then ends very ugly.
In conclusion, I will cut some of my trading postions this week and make purchase small and limited.
Monday, May 4, 2009
Cheap Energy Plays
I'd say the cheap energy plays are working...
Returns for today:
CPE +18%
FTK +22%
SD + 7%
NGAS +20% (note this is a realized gain, i sold before sell off as posted)
Returns for today:
CPE +18%
FTK +22%
SD + 7%
NGAS +20% (note this is a realized gain, i sold before sell off as posted)
Market Wrapup
Bottom line is that was the short squeeze that the bears were afraid of and boom it hit. My gains were monsterous, via small cap runners, commodities, and big shipper bets. My short hedges failed badly and I knew they would but didn't trust myself. The futures closed above 875 on Friday so a rally was immient but instead of making ungodly returns today, I made incredible returns. YTD I'm up 241% and don't plan looking back.
I plan on hold SKF and the rest of My hedges for a little bit longer, then I'm out.
In conclusion, RF will not be denied!
Disclaimer.
RF does not own or work for a hedge fund, therefore, SEC regulations regarding returns as advertising does not apply. However, some visitors who comment own hedge funds and are liable if they solicit their returns as advertising. RF has no control of this and is not liable.
I plan on hold SKF and the rest of My hedges for a little bit longer, then I'm out.
In conclusion, RF will not be denied!
Disclaimer.
RF does not own or work for a hedge fund, therefore, SEC regulations regarding returns as advertising does not apply. However, some visitors who comment own hedge funds and are liable if they solicit their returns as advertising. RF has no control of this and is not liable.
Funny stuff
Its funny how greed has replaced fear.
I've seen this story once before....
If I was a betting man, which I'm not, I would bet the s&p closes below 860 on Dec 31
I've seen this story once before....
If I was a betting man, which I'm not, I would bet the s&p closes below 860 on Dec 31
CROX
Another RF classic. Bought at 1.50 and shouldve held, if your still in enjoy the short squeeze. If take some off
RF Wins again
Steel is so hot, its absurd. Been long clf since 18 and its st 29, not selling any.ACH is ripping as well. If you still own pcx, nice trade. Shippers will not be deined, up insanely on GNK and exm.
In conclusion enjoy the rally and buy dips. Cheap energy plans can still work.
In conclusion enjoy the rally and buy dips. Cheap energy plans can still work.
Update
Keep an eye on the spec oil plays like SD CPE and NGAS.CPE is over 2 in PM. Also COIn is a looker
Speaking of coin, I'm banking some in S and shippers are on fire in premarket. Ill be back later in AM
Speaking of coin, I'm banking some in S and shippers are on fire in premarket. Ill be back later in AM
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Strategy for this week....
Going into this week, I will remain cauticous and look for areas where money is going. As mentioned over the weekend, I saw some movement into commodity based firms. I bought a big Nat Gas firm in APC and bought some little oil based specs in NGAS, SD, and CPE. I like steel here but want a dip before I get in big. CLF is my favorite, so I might add more around $20 but will look at MT.
For the longer-term, I like soft commodoties for a inflation trade (12-18 months out). The best way to play it is DBA (etf). It won't skyrocket overnight but in time, it will break $30. Ag plays can also work if the reflation trade. Names like: POT, MOS, MON, and IPI can work but I don't own them and these are high momentum names. Once the juice leaves, they go down. For a longer term stock, I like VMI and think it can go way higher. I might buy in the mid/upper $50's or basically below $60. I think VMI can run to $65-70 in time. LNN is another one but is a little rich at these levels. For a speculative play, keep an eye on COIN (hat tip to J).
As for small caps, I like SD (bought at $8.85) alot because the chart looks good. NGAS (bought at $2.12) is nice and CPE (bought at $1.83) is good as well. These are cheap plays on the gas/exploration front. I might buy some more and if so I will post. I post prices because ideally those prices or below are good entries in my view. Most investors have great ideas or know the story but buy at wrong times. Regardless of all of the people you hear on TV or brokers that want your money, just know RF looks out for you and his best advice to any trader or investor is that "there is nothing more important than the price you pay for a stock - nothing". Even if you know the firm inside and out and buy it too high, you will lose.
As for my holdings, my biggest longs remain in shippers. No one likes them but me and I love them, to be honest. In addition, I continue to love DELL. I will hold DELL for a long time, unless I feel negative about the market and sell because I think I can buy it cheaper than my cost. I remain short on Financials, via SKF and am up about 4 points. I will not sell it yet but probably soon. I got my VIX bet, via VXX, but might lose because there seems to be no fear in this market. I still got GIGM and will see how the price action goes in the name. I am long in pretty good size (one of my top 3 holdings). From people I know in the biz, they believe the downgrade was wrong. The real messed up thing in my view is that this brokerage firm is "low tier" at best, upgraded them last week to buy, then Friday, downgraded them to Hold..in A WEEK! I mean I have been trading for a while but have never seen anything like that. If I was GIGM, I'd sue them for stock price manipulation but that is me. Also, if I was PartyGaming, I'd make a bid for them very soon, while they got a 15% haircut. I might add more to my position or cut it if things look bad but for now, if I HAD to do one or the other, I would add more, but I am not right now. I still have some Chinese/commodity exposure via ACH and will hold for a long-term play. S reports tomorrow and CBB reports Tuesdsay, so I have no idea what to expect, they are both a short leash. GLW is a "fair" play but I will hold probably and tuck it away it as a long-term play. SDS is killing me as a hedge but I need it since I have alot of long exposure. I'm out of CROX but follower RT is saying to get back in because he likes the chart. CROX's earnings come up this week and should be horrible; however, I believe if they surprise, it can run to $2.75+ but that is a big IF.
As for options, they suck right now. I own FEED $5 calls and on the next spike, I am kicking them. I had a dream FEED closed at $4.58 last night (don't ask me why I dream about FEED) but anyways, just saying. My airline bets are valued at about 10% of their cost, thanks to the pig flu. I own June LUV calls 7.5/10 strike and CAL calls 17.50 strike, so I hope we can get a rally in the next 6 weeks, unless Biden runs his mouth on the Today Show again about traveling.
In conclusion, that should give you an idea of my thoughts and my positions, good luck this week, god bless and may we continue to rake in cash.
For the longer-term, I like soft commodoties for a inflation trade (12-18 months out). The best way to play it is DBA (etf). It won't skyrocket overnight but in time, it will break $30. Ag plays can also work if the reflation trade. Names like: POT, MOS, MON, and IPI can work but I don't own them and these are high momentum names. Once the juice leaves, they go down. For a longer term stock, I like VMI and think it can go way higher. I might buy in the mid/upper $50's or basically below $60. I think VMI can run to $65-70 in time. LNN is another one but is a little rich at these levels. For a speculative play, keep an eye on COIN (hat tip to J).
As for small caps, I like SD (bought at $8.85) alot because the chart looks good. NGAS (bought at $2.12) is nice and CPE (bought at $1.83) is good as well. These are cheap plays on the gas/exploration front. I might buy some more and if so I will post. I post prices because ideally those prices or below are good entries in my view. Most investors have great ideas or know the story but buy at wrong times. Regardless of all of the people you hear on TV or brokers that want your money, just know RF looks out for you and his best advice to any trader or investor is that "there is nothing more important than the price you pay for a stock - nothing". Even if you know the firm inside and out and buy it too high, you will lose.
As for my holdings, my biggest longs remain in shippers. No one likes them but me and I love them, to be honest. In addition, I continue to love DELL. I will hold DELL for a long time, unless I feel negative about the market and sell because I think I can buy it cheaper than my cost. I remain short on Financials, via SKF and am up about 4 points. I will not sell it yet but probably soon. I got my VIX bet, via VXX, but might lose because there seems to be no fear in this market. I still got GIGM and will see how the price action goes in the name. I am long in pretty good size (one of my top 3 holdings). From people I know in the biz, they believe the downgrade was wrong. The real messed up thing in my view is that this brokerage firm is "low tier" at best, upgraded them last week to buy, then Friday, downgraded them to Hold..in A WEEK! I mean I have been trading for a while but have never seen anything like that. If I was GIGM, I'd sue them for stock price manipulation but that is me. Also, if I was PartyGaming, I'd make a bid for them very soon, while they got a 15% haircut. I might add more to my position or cut it if things look bad but for now, if I HAD to do one or the other, I would add more, but I am not right now. I still have some Chinese/commodity exposure via ACH and will hold for a long-term play. S reports tomorrow and CBB reports Tuesdsay, so I have no idea what to expect, they are both a short leash. GLW is a "fair" play but I will hold probably and tuck it away it as a long-term play. SDS is killing me as a hedge but I need it since I have alot of long exposure. I'm out of CROX but follower RT is saying to get back in because he likes the chart. CROX's earnings come up this week and should be horrible; however, I believe if they surprise, it can run to $2.75+ but that is a big IF.
As for options, they suck right now. I own FEED $5 calls and on the next spike, I am kicking them. I had a dream FEED closed at $4.58 last night (don't ask me why I dream about FEED) but anyways, just saying. My airline bets are valued at about 10% of their cost, thanks to the pig flu. I own June LUV calls 7.5/10 strike and CAL calls 17.50 strike, so I hope we can get a rally in the next 6 weeks, unless Biden runs his mouth on the Today Show again about traveling.
In conclusion, that should give you an idea of my thoughts and my positions, good luck this week, god bless and may we continue to rake in cash.
If the reflation trade is real....
Steel:
CLF, X, MT, RS
Aluminum:
ACH, AA, KALU, CENX
Oil:
CVX, COP, HESS, BP, DXO (levered crude oil etc, 2x the crude futures)
Oil Services:
SLB, RIG, DO, NE, KBR
Natural Gas:
APC, APA, DVN, CHK, UNG (natural gas futures etf)
Copper:
PCU, FCX, JJC (copper futures etf)
CLF, X, MT, RS
Aluminum:
ACH, AA, KALU, CENX
Oil:
CVX, COP, HESS, BP, DXO (levered crude oil etc, 2x the crude futures)
Oil Services:
SLB, RIG, DO, NE, KBR
Natural Gas:
APC, APA, DVN, CHK, UNG (natural gas futures etf)
Copper:
PCU, FCX, JJC (copper futures etf)
Earnings for the week of May 4th
Monday:
Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK, Sprint Nextel Corporation S
Tuesday:
Alcatel-Lucent ALU,Archer Daniels Midland Company ADM, Cincinnati Bell Inc. CBB, CVS Caremark Corporation CVS, Electronic Arts ERTS , Las Vegas Sands Corp. LVS, Sonus Networks SONS , Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN
Wednesday:
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation APC, Cisco Systems CSCO, Devon Energy Corporation DVN, DIANA SHIPPING INC DSX, Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. EGLE, Foster Wheeler AG FWLT, Garmin Ltd. GRMN , TBS International Limited TBSI , Transocean LTD. RIG , WARREN RESOURCES INC WRES , Western Refining, Inc. WNR
Thursday:
Activision Blizzard, Inc. ATVI , Blue Nile, Inc. NILE , California Pizza Kitchen CPKI , Crocs, Inc. CROX , Excel Maritime Carriers EXM, Hansen Natural HANS, NVIDIA Corporation NVDA, SandRidge Energy SD
Friday:
Toyota Motor CorporationTM
This is a big week for me because I have some exposure everyday but Friday. I'm locked in and ready to go!
Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK, Sprint Nextel Corporation S
Tuesday:
Alcatel-Lucent ALU,Archer Daniels Midland Company ADM, Cincinnati Bell Inc. CBB, CVS Caremark Corporation CVS, Electronic Arts ERTS , Las Vegas Sands Corp. LVS, Sonus Networks SONS , Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN
Wednesday:
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation APC, Cisco Systems CSCO, Devon Energy Corporation DVN, DIANA SHIPPING INC DSX, Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. EGLE, Foster Wheeler AG FWLT, Garmin Ltd. GRMN , TBS International Limited TBSI , Transocean LTD. RIG , WARREN RESOURCES INC WRES , Western Refining, Inc. WNR
Thursday:
Activision Blizzard, Inc. ATVI , Blue Nile, Inc. NILE , California Pizza Kitchen CPKI , Crocs, Inc. CROX , Excel Maritime Carriers EXM, Hansen Natural HANS, NVIDIA Corporation NVDA, SandRidge Energy SD
Friday:
Toyota Motor CorporationTM
This is a big week for me because I have some exposure everyday but Friday. I'm locked in and ready to go!
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