Sold all for 5% one day gain
I'm out for the weekend, be easy!
Friday, August 21, 2009
market
What is driving this market? Its rather simple, two words, short squeeze.
Last night, before I went to bed at midnight, futures where down 6 pts on the s&p. Today at 6am they s&p futures were up 5 points. A 2% swing in the s&p is rather interesting!
Many short see downward pressure and load up on shorts then and seeing market, quickly stop out for losses due to people buying stocks.
Right now the market has too much strength to short, I learned my lesson last month.
The best decision is to buy dips and sell rips. Keep high cash
Last night, before I went to bed at midnight, futures where down 6 pts on the s&p. Today at 6am they s&p futures were up 5 points. A 2% swing in the s&p is rather interesting!
Many short see downward pressure and load up on shorts then and seeing market, quickly stop out for losses due to people buying stocks.
Right now the market has too much strength to short, I learned my lesson last month.
The best decision is to buy dips and sell rips. Keep high cash
AMD
Upgraded at citigroup with 5.50 price target
Bottom line.
Bet against me and lose your house.
Long 3500 and not selling
Bottom line.
Bet against me and lose your house.
Long 3500 and not selling
Market Outlook
Futures are up about .5% across the board and I hope it stays that way. For the month of August, I am still down but I am getting better. I have deployed about 80% long in one of my portfolios and about 40% long in the other. I still have tons of cash combined, incase of a black swan event, i can cost average down. If we have a very strong day, I will sell some stuff just to bolster my cash levels.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Market Update
My apologizes for lack of communication, I have been ill and am back in the swing of things. As for the market, we look strong here and the garbargio stocks are steady running: AIG, FRE, FNM, and ABK. This shows that big funds are ready to speculate, on heavily short bankrupt firms for a gamble. As for the retail front, DKS had a solid quarter, while SHLD had a horrfic quarter. On other nonrelated news, there is a rumor going around that John Paulson (billionaire hedge fund manager who made $24B on betting against housing - top fund guy right now) has built a $2.5-3B position in the U.S. Dollar. That is a variant view to say the least, especially how the "old news" of last weeks shows he bought $3B in bank of america (BAC). I sold my ADSK today for a slight profit and might sell my SVR for tiny loss to raise some cash. Bank of America (BAC) is still probably one of the best longs in the market, given the RSI stays bullish and we close above $17. Shorting this market is very risky, so I would rather be cash heavy than too short because the market is very strong. I added some TSO yesterday and my hurricane "trade" and might build further. If a hurricane slams the gulf, TSO will soar. But, as I said, it's a bet on mother nature, and UNG is a scam (or at least feels like it) so i need some hurricane to bring me out of the -15% loss on my position. AMD remains a loser and I hate it with a passion but will hold it out til next earnings report. I will admit, it is not looking in my favor. LPX is strong but I mgiht take profits abouve $6.25.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
NEPH
LOL...Hope someone has this stashed away too from the .585 purchase
http://trade247.blogspot.com/2009/06/neph.html
http://trade247.blogspot.com/2009/06/neph.html
AXL
Hope someone still has a little stash from the May buy....
http://trade247.blogspot.com/2009/05/rf-buy-axl.html
http://trade247.blogspot.com/2009/05/rf-buy-axl.html
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
LPX
I will refrain from taking a $300 day profit and instead ride it out longer or accumulate more on dips. That is me however, 300 bucks in 4 hours isn't bad.
"we win again"
"we win again"
August 18th. Upgrades/Downgrades
CHANGE IN RATINGS
American Express upgraded at KBW7:57 AM EDT AXP was upgraded to Outperform, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said. $37 price target. Estimates also raised, as the company again saw improving credit trends in July.
Brookfield Properties upgraded at UBS8:17 AM EDT BPO upgraded at UBS. Rating raised to Neutral from Sell. Price target raised to $9.50 from $7.00. 2009 EPS estimates lowered to $1.36 from $1.45.
Boston Scientific upgraded at Leerink Swann8:29 AM EDT BSX upgraded at Leerink Swann. Rating raised to Outperform from Market Perform. Raises price target to $15 from $11. Maintains 2009 EPS estimates of $0.57.
Buffalo Wild Wings rated new Neutral at Goldman8:04 AM EDT Coverage of BWLD was started with a Neutral rating, Goldman Sachs said. $44 price target. Company has positive long-term potential, but is facing lower restaurant margins in the second half of the year.
Goldman Sachs upgraded at Pali7:20 AM EDT GS was upgraded to Buy, Pali Research said. $210 price target. Estimates also boosted, to reflect higher expected trading revenue and strong banking backlogs.
International Game Technology upgraded at JP Morgan8:06 AM EDT IGT upgraded at JP Morgan. Rating raised to Overweight from Neutral. Maintains $23 price target. Maintains 2009 EPS estimates of $0.78.
Back to Top
STOCK COMMENTS / EPS CHANGES
Agilent target raised at Credit Suisse8:14 AM EDT Shares of A now seen reaching $29, according to Credit Suisse. Company appears to be past the cyclical bottom. Outperform rating.
Agilent estimates, target raised at FBR7:24 AM EDT Shares of A now seen reaching $23, according to Friedman, Billings Ramsey said. Estimates also boosted, to match the company's new guidance and the potential from the Varian deal.
Autozone estimates boosted at Merrill/BofA7:29 AM EDT AZO estimates were increased through 2011, according to Merrill Lynch/Bank of America. Company is seeing more demand in the DIY market. Buy rating and $185 price target.
BB&T estimates boosted at FBR7:23 AM EDT BBT estimates were raised through 2010, Friedman, Billings Ramsey said. Company should realize cost savings from the Colonial deal. Market Perform rating and $22 price target.
Biovail estimates reduced at UBS7:43 AM EDT BVF estimates were lowered through 2010, UBS said. Ultram XL is going generic. Buy rating and $16 price target.
Celanese estimates, target raised at Goldman8:08 AM EDT Shares of CE now seen reaching $27, according to Goldman Sachs. Estimates were also boosted, to reflect a recovery in the auto market and positive China trends. Neutral rating.
Dish Network estimates cut at Morgan Stanley7:52 AM EDT DISH estimates were lowered through 2011, Morgan Stanley said. Latest bond offering will increase interest expense and fundamental visibility remains low. Equal-weight rating.
JC Penney target raised at Morgan Stanley7:50 AM EDT JCP target was boosted to $37, Morgan Stanley said. Company should be able to expand its gross margin in the coming quarters. Overweight rating.
Eli Lilly target cut at Merrill/BofA7:28 AM EDT Shares of LLY now seen reaching $35, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. Product portfolio is facing increased generic risk. Underperform rating.
Lowe's estimates cut at Goldman8:11 AM EDT LOW 2010 estimate was lowered to reflect a slower sales rebound, according to Goldman Sachs. Buy rating and $23 price target.
Marvell Technology numbers raised at FBR7:22 AM EDT MRVL estimates were increased through 2010, Friedman, Billings Ramsey said. Expect the company to raise guidance later this month. Outperform rating and new $18.50 price target.
Valspar estimates, target increased at UBS7:45 AM EDT VAL estimates were boosted through 2010, according to UBS. Company seeing higher paint demand and cutting costs. Neutral rating and new $24 price target
American Express upgraded at KBW7:57 AM EDT AXP was upgraded to Outperform, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said. $37 price target. Estimates also raised, as the company again saw improving credit trends in July.
Brookfield Properties upgraded at UBS8:17 AM EDT BPO upgraded at UBS. Rating raised to Neutral from Sell. Price target raised to $9.50 from $7.00. 2009 EPS estimates lowered to $1.36 from $1.45.
Boston Scientific upgraded at Leerink Swann8:29 AM EDT BSX upgraded at Leerink Swann. Rating raised to Outperform from Market Perform. Raises price target to $15 from $11. Maintains 2009 EPS estimates of $0.57.
Buffalo Wild Wings rated new Neutral at Goldman8:04 AM EDT Coverage of BWLD was started with a Neutral rating, Goldman Sachs said. $44 price target. Company has positive long-term potential, but is facing lower restaurant margins in the second half of the year.
Goldman Sachs upgraded at Pali7:20 AM EDT GS was upgraded to Buy, Pali Research said. $210 price target. Estimates also boosted, to reflect higher expected trading revenue and strong banking backlogs.
International Game Technology upgraded at JP Morgan8:06 AM EDT IGT upgraded at JP Morgan. Rating raised to Overweight from Neutral. Maintains $23 price target. Maintains 2009 EPS estimates of $0.78.
Back to Top
STOCK COMMENTS / EPS CHANGES
Agilent target raised at Credit Suisse8:14 AM EDT Shares of A now seen reaching $29, according to Credit Suisse. Company appears to be past the cyclical bottom. Outperform rating.
Agilent estimates, target raised at FBR7:24 AM EDT Shares of A now seen reaching $23, according to Friedman, Billings Ramsey said. Estimates also boosted, to match the company's new guidance and the potential from the Varian deal.
Autozone estimates boosted at Merrill/BofA7:29 AM EDT AZO estimates were increased through 2011, according to Merrill Lynch/Bank of America. Company is seeing more demand in the DIY market. Buy rating and $185 price target.
BB&T estimates boosted at FBR7:23 AM EDT BBT estimates were raised through 2010, Friedman, Billings Ramsey said. Company should realize cost savings from the Colonial deal. Market Perform rating and $22 price target.
Biovail estimates reduced at UBS7:43 AM EDT BVF estimates were lowered through 2010, UBS said. Ultram XL is going generic. Buy rating and $16 price target.
Celanese estimates, target raised at Goldman8:08 AM EDT Shares of CE now seen reaching $27, according to Goldman Sachs. Estimates were also boosted, to reflect a recovery in the auto market and positive China trends. Neutral rating.
Dish Network estimates cut at Morgan Stanley7:52 AM EDT DISH estimates were lowered through 2011, Morgan Stanley said. Latest bond offering will increase interest expense and fundamental visibility remains low. Equal-weight rating.
JC Penney target raised at Morgan Stanley7:50 AM EDT JCP target was boosted to $37, Morgan Stanley said. Company should be able to expand its gross margin in the coming quarters. Overweight rating.
Eli Lilly target cut at Merrill/BofA7:28 AM EDT Shares of LLY now seen reaching $35, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. Product portfolio is facing increased generic risk. Underperform rating.
Lowe's estimates cut at Goldman8:11 AM EDT LOW 2010 estimate was lowered to reflect a slower sales rebound, according to Goldman Sachs. Buy rating and $23 price target.
Marvell Technology numbers raised at FBR7:22 AM EDT MRVL estimates were increased through 2010, Friedman, Billings Ramsey said. Expect the company to raise guidance later this month. Outperform rating and new $18.50 price target.
Valspar estimates, target increased at UBS7:45 AM EDT VAL estimates were boosted through 2010, according to UBS. Company seeing higher paint demand and cutting costs. Neutral rating and new $24 price target
4G - Mobile Internet Plays
As stated alot here, I remain very bullish on the mobile internet thesis. Currently, I own STAR and TSRA for my 4G portfolio. However, after doing alot of analysis, there are many good stocks out there that will benefit in a 1-2 year time period but the cost of purchase is key. I will add 3 more names in this portfolio in time, one of those will be soon. I should have never sold my CIEN from $9 (much less earlier in the year when I bought it at $5.90) but that is a great play, it's just been on fire. If it gets back to $9's, I will buy it again. TQNT is another one I like but needs to drop further. There is even word that Dell is launching a smartphone in China, which could be very interesting. All in all, keep a watchlist of all these names and when I have completed the research, I will narrow my prey and push agressively
4G - Mobile Internet Plays
As stated alot here, I remain very bullish on the mobile internet thesis. Currently, I own STAR and TSRA for my 4G portfolio. However, after doing alot of analysis, there are many good stocks out there that will benefit in a 1-2 year time period but the cost of purchase is key. I will add 3 more names in this portfolio in time, one of those will be soon. I should have never sold my CIEN from $9 (much less earlier in the year when I bought it at $5.90) but that is a great play, it's just been on fire. If it gets back to $9's, I will buy it again. TQNT is another one I like but needs to drop further. There is even word that Dell is launching a smartphone in China, which could be very interesting. All in all, keep a watchlist of all these names and when I have completed the research, I will narrow my prey and push agressively
Tell me something I don't know
SPX target was raised to 1,075, according to Friedman, Billings Ramsey. Labor market dynamics continue to improve and a lot of stimulus money has yet to hit the economy is reasoning for the target increase for the S&P
Market Outlook
Finally, a pullback! I am not too fearful, as this is a much needed correction. The oscilators are balancing and we are due for another 2-3% down probably, then we should rip higher....if the "voices" are not lying to me. The voices in my head have about a 92% win-rate, so with the disappointment in FTK, GIGM, and ultrashorts, they tend to be okay.
As for buys, I bought the dip but not too agressively. I feel if you had a sizeable cash position, why not buy the dip? Everything had a 3-10% haircut and the stories behind most did not change.
I highlighted this morning some negative headwinds facing the market; however, the trust data release for Citigroup (C) and American Express (AXP) was very positive from my interpretations. I am not too big on either stock (although I will buy C around $3) the data doesn't lie. Defaults are stablizing and NCOs are reducing, which I love. Bank of America (BAC) will remain my top bank play for 2009-2011, but for others to look at one dips: Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), JP Morgan (JPM) and more speculative ones like Sallie Mae (SLM) and Hunington Banc Corp (HBAN). All in all, this was healthy and I expect it to dip further but incase we don't I bought stuff yesterday. I am more positive on the market, after seeing this, because we "sold the close" which some see as bad but I disagree. I will likely get more agressive towards the next few weeks and push harder on the long side.
RF Top Pick: LPX on scale
As for buys, I bought the dip but not too agressively. I feel if you had a sizeable cash position, why not buy the dip? Everything had a 3-10% haircut and the stories behind most did not change.
I highlighted this morning some negative headwinds facing the market; however, the trust data release for Citigroup (C) and American Express (AXP) was very positive from my interpretations. I am not too big on either stock (although I will buy C around $3) the data doesn't lie. Defaults are stablizing and NCOs are reducing, which I love. Bank of America (BAC) will remain my top bank play for 2009-2011, but for others to look at one dips: Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), JP Morgan (JPM) and more speculative ones like Sallie Mae (SLM) and Hunington Banc Corp (HBAN). All in all, this was healthy and I expect it to dip further but incase we don't I bought stuff yesterday. I am more positive on the market, after seeing this, because we "sold the close" which some see as bad but I disagree. I will likely get more agressive towards the next few weeks and push harder on the long side.
RF Top Pick: LPX on scale
Monday, August 17, 2009
RF Buys
BOUGHT 400 AMD AT $3.55
BOUGHT 75 VALE AT $19.55
BOUGHT 100 SLM AT $8.40
BOUGHT 300 HBAN AT $4.30
RF covers QQQQ and AN
I covered all my QQQQ short for a +$.50/per share gain I covered all my AN short for a +$1.10/per share gain Only short I am holding is my ESS short, which I have NOT covered yet...
Another "green shoot" Killer
Even with the initial "Cash for Clunkers" surge in sales, total retail sales registered a 0.1% decline last month. Without autos, the decline was 0.6%. The consumer is clearly showing the effects of a high unemployment rate, stagnant wages, a depressed housing market and limited access to credit. Consumer activity is 70% or so of total economic activity, and any attempt at an economic recovery needs some participation from the consumer if it's to have any chance of success.
Negative Variables
There have been some negative variables that is supporting my double-dip recession thesis: * Capital One (COF) reported a spike in credit card deqliencies in July * Lowe's (LOW) quarter was absolutely terrible and guidance disappoints. LOW missed on both revenues and earnings but I will add to my LOW position on this weakness, in belief that the company will have a strong 4th qtr and 2010. I will look to add in the $19's and below.
Ford (F)
F 2009 estimate was boosted to reflect higher production guidance, Goldman Sachs said. Buy rating and $9.50 price target.
Market Outlook
As my "gut feel' suggested, we are TANKING in the futures market.
The DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ are expected to open down at least 1.5%+ each.
I think we might get a 3-5% overall correction, this could market some of it. Not many people were short into this, so if sentiment feels weird, funds will expand their shorts to drive this market down.
The selloff is a global one as well, with China's market down 5.8%!
Bottom line: if you see something you want, nipple on it, but don't press "all-in"
The DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ are expected to open down at least 1.5%+ each.
I think we might get a 3-5% overall correction, this could market some of it. Not many people were short into this, so if sentiment feels weird, funds will expand their shorts to drive this market down.
The selloff is a global one as well, with China's market down 5.8%!
Bottom line: if you see something you want, nipple on it, but don't press "all-in"
Sunday, August 16, 2009
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