Saturday, June 6, 2009
Natural Gas
(Source: Goldman Sachs Estimates - Click to enlarge)
Natural Gas has been crushed this year, mainly due to weak demand and strong pressure by short sellers. On Thursday, the UNG (etf that tracks natural gas commodity) traded over 73,000,000 shares, on a day where inventories unexpectedly increased. Since it ended up positive on this type of volume and bad news, natural gas "seems" to have a short term bottom at $13.40.
Tune back tomorrow and I will give you a list of names!
Art Cashin Sides with RF!
Please tells me this sounds familiar? Perhaps the reason for the RF S&P Prediction MADE 2 WEEKS AGO!
Friday, June 5, 2009
RF Option Buys
X $50 Jan 2010 Calls ($3.20)
JOYG $50 Oct Calls ($2.50)
Long shots and probability not in my favor; however, I think U.S. Steel is going to $50 and JOYG is going higher too. However, these are long shots, so be careful. The shares are fine but let's face it, I have never met 1 person who had made money trading U.S. Steel. And as for JOYG, it's a classic RF trade. I bought it at the bottom at $18 and sold it at $28 and now it's at $40. Go figure but regardless, I think we are going higher, so just buy the dips.
JOYG $50 Oct Calls ($2.50)
Long shots and probability not in my favor; however, I think U.S. Steel is going to $50 and JOYG is going higher too. However, these are long shots, so be careful. The shares are fine but let's face it, I have never met 1 person who had made money trading U.S. Steel. And as for JOYG, it's a classic RF trade. I bought it at the bottom at $18 and sold it at $28 and now it's at $40. Go figure but regardless, I think we are going higher, so just buy the dips.
RF Biotech Basket Performance
BDSI up 27% since purchase
NEPH up 39% since purchase
May the lotto continue
NEPH up 39% since purchase
May the lotto continue
Market Wrapup
Great week gang! Strong performance across the board with a lot of winners! As for the market, today was disappointing given the job number. The data showed some bad news and job births but its hard for the market to move without oil and banks. I remain bullish and will be selective going forward. I will continue to find small cap lottos and buy bigger companies. GLW looks real strong as well as AAPL. I will build more exposure to banks as well on dips. I like WFC, JPM , USB, FITB for a spec, and BAC.
Have a good weekend and ill be back with more research, focusing on natural gas.
Have a good weekend and ill be back with more research, focusing on natural gas.
RF Buy Premarket - FAS / Market Outlook
Bought 500 FAS at $10.35
Will put a $9.75 stop incase jobs tumble.....play at your own risk but financials are about to get another leg up!
Top picks: FITB, BAC, SIVB, STI, WFC, MS, GS, and USB.
Market Outlook
Critical jobs report coming up at 8:30a. I have not 1 short position to my name, unlike every clown on CNBC. Call me crazy but I think we got another leg up and it's not gonna be small. Going foward, I am looking at oil, financials,shippers/tankers, semiconductors, tech, and airlines. I am buying the dogs of the dogs in FITB and the king of crops in WFC. On the short side, I don't feel comfortable doing it. If I had to, I look at firms who are losing market share and are highly levered, tied to the consumer. Be back later
Will put a $9.75 stop incase jobs tumble.....play at your own risk but financials are about to get another leg up!
Top picks: FITB, BAC, SIVB, STI, WFC, MS, GS, and USB.
Market Outlook
Critical jobs report coming up at 8:30a. I have not 1 short position to my name, unlike every clown on CNBC. Call me crazy but I think we got another leg up and it's not gonna be small. Going foward, I am looking at oil, financials,shippers/tankers, semiconductors, tech, and airlines. I am buying the dogs of the dogs in FITB and the king of crops in WFC. On the short side, I don't feel comfortable doing it. If I had to, I look at firms who are losing market share and are highly levered, tied to the consumer. Be back later
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Goldman Upgrades Crude to $85 (Highlights)
(Source: Goldman Sachs Research)
Today Goldman Sachs upgraded crude and put a $85 price target on it. This scared the weak shorts out in big fashion and above are some highlights. I like HES the best out of the group especially at $59. I also like CVX and COP. ERX is one of to watch at $30.
However, I will say this, Oil is the #1 leader of the market. Oil began to rebound around noon and that is when the market got serious and rallied hard. Look at today's oil chart and S&P chart and you can see the movement. Yesterday we had a selloff but it was lead by oil.
I really think big investment banks know this and are driving up the price of oil because of the market the market to continue to go up.
Tech - Merger and Acquisitions
(Source: Goldman Sachs - click to enlarge)With the deal by Intel made today, the M&A in tech will continue due to the high levels of cash on the balance sheet. I believe VMW and RHT are the top two. I believe IBM will make an acquistion soon.
Market Wrapup
We win again, period. Even the dog of the century GIGM came to life.
I am off to discuss the future of the blog with some developers now. I will sell the blog for a high premium and ample gift certificates to buffalo wild wings. So the question will be, what will RF do?
I am off to discuss the future of the blog with some developers now. I will sell the blog for a high premium and ample gift certificates to buffalo wild wings. So the question will be, what will RF do?
Market Outlook
Futres up today but we have tons of economic data coming up. The big number is initial claims at 8:30a, along with productivity-rev and unit labor costs. My game play will be simply, sit on cash of 25% and buy names on my buy list. I wanted to buy AAPL but now it's gone, so I will look at buying RIMM if it dips or another tech titan, perhaps a AMZN. I might also add to a few other stakes that are already exisiting. All eyes are on the initial claims, so get the popcorn ready.
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
HIMX
(Source: Bank of America-Merill Lynch Research - click to enlarge)
Tawian Semiconductor that focuses on LCD. Above highlights revenue segments and estimates. I am looking for a price target of $4ish.
DXO
The fate of oil may not be in the fate of OPEC for the short-term but rather the U.S. DOLLAR!
Weak Dollar = High Crude
The UUP is the dollar index. Watch it as an oil guide.
Weak Dollar = High Crude
The UUP is the dollar index. Watch it as an oil guide.
YHOO
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(Source: JP Morgan - Click them to enlarge) Above are some highlights from JP Morgan on YHOO. JP Morgan has a $19 PT. I believe YHOO and GOOG are going much higher.
Goldman Upgrading Internet Stocks
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSBNG24293420090603
I will try to snag a report if it exists - will phone a friend
I will try to snag a report if it exists - will phone a friend
Market Wrapup
It's hard to recover after a terrible jobs ADP report. However, the real unemployment report comes Friday, which will not be good in my view. As for the market, I am bullish still; however, have more of a nervous feeling. I am standing by my S&P call; however, if I feel a bit weary, I will sell my calls and shares. Note that I specifically chose the SSO, the specific strike, and specific month because if we don't achieve that price objective, we will at come out big. I'm up 95% of the calls since my purchase, so I have a safety net on the 10 contracts. I am keeping a big cash position - roughly 25% because there is no need to risk my year. In addition, I believe there is no need to rush and buy things. I sold my small cap technical plays today and moved it into small caps that have some instrinsic value (at least in my view) - FNSR and HIMX.
A report came out today that shows that bearish sentiment is very low and is equivalent to January 2008. That is very worrying because that is when short sellers can step in and destroy a market. However, like I said I am not sacred of this market but little nervous.
As for today, the only positive stocks I had was THQI and BEE. The uplifting news on THQI came from the CEO on their outlook for 2010 (below is the link of the interview). Also, I see where goldman raised YHOO's Price Target from $14 to $17. I also noticed it raised it's target to AMZN to $102. I like PCLN also (mentioned before) and raised that to $130 I believe. I will post a link to that.
As for my purchases, I took a stake in HIMX today. This is a Tawian semiconductor that is specialized in LCDs. I will post report later. I also bought WFC because I still like banks and believe the worst is over but they are not totally out of the woods. I like WFC, JPM, and for a spec BAC. The regionals are a bit speculative, due to their exposure to construction loans and commercial real estate; however, I like STI and USB.
I'm off the to the gym, lata.
A report came out today that shows that bearish sentiment is very low and is equivalent to January 2008. That is very worrying because that is when short sellers can step in and destroy a market. However, like I said I am not sacred of this market but little nervous.
As for today, the only positive stocks I had was THQI and BEE. The uplifting news on THQI came from the CEO on their outlook for 2010 (below is the link of the interview). Also, I see where goldman raised YHOO's Price Target from $14 to $17. I also noticed it raised it's target to AMZN to $102. I like PCLN also (mentioned before) and raised that to $130 I believe. I will post a link to that.
As for my purchases, I took a stake in HIMX today. This is a Tawian semiconductor that is specialized in LCDs. I will post report later. I also bought WFC because I still like banks and believe the worst is over but they are not totally out of the woods. I like WFC, JPM, and for a spec BAC. The regionals are a bit speculative, due to their exposure to construction loans and commercial real estate; however, I like STI and USB.
I'm off the to the gym, lata.
selloff
Not that impressed considering that AAPL is up and the UYG is not off much. I am looking at DRYS and banks but am sitting cool for now. We need oil to bounce higher and well as a JPM or a GS to turn green.
Market Outlook - June 3
Futures dipping about .05% across the indices ahead of the ADP Report due out at 8:30p. In addition we also have Factory Orders and ISM Services at 10a, then crude inventories at 10:30a. Anotherwards, tons of data that can move this market.
As for NEPH, my sources tell me that FDA has had some staff delays, so the ruling could be anytime from today to 6/15. BDSI ruling should be by 6/14.
I will continue to monitor to the markets and may add some short exposure. I will post before I discuss if I do, so no need to rush. As for finanicals, Doug Kass was on CNBC saying he has been buying Bank of America and Suntrust, which I agree with. BofA is a difficult bank to value but GS has a $15 price target, where MS has a $32 price target. The only fear of BofA is if they convert the preferred to common, which will dilute and reduce the share prices to that similar of Citi. However, BofA has monster earning power with Countrywide, Merrill Lynch, and Bank of America - all in 1.
I will be back later, take it easy.
As for NEPH, my sources tell me that FDA has had some staff delays, so the ruling could be anytime from today to 6/15. BDSI ruling should be by 6/14.
I will continue to monitor to the markets and may add some short exposure. I will post before I discuss if I do, so no need to rush. As for finanicals, Doug Kass was on CNBC saying he has been buying Bank of America and Suntrust, which I agree with. BofA is a difficult bank to value but GS has a $15 price target, where MS has a $32 price target. The only fear of BofA is if they convert the preferred to common, which will dilute and reduce the share prices to that similar of Citi. However, BofA has monster earning power with Countrywide, Merrill Lynch, and Bank of America - all in 1.
I will be back later, take it easy.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Market Wrapup
What a boring day compared to yesterday. It would have been more productive to nap honestly than trade today. I was relatively flat in my trading account and up a tad in my other 2 accounts (long books). I sadly sold the last 25% of my GNK today but it just got too hot and I had to cut it. GME sold off today which pissed me off. I should have some profits in it yesterday but didn't. Keep in mind that the 3/4Q estimates have price cuts factored in the EPS. If SNE doesn't cut prices, GME probably will not make their half year. Therefore, without price cuts, GME is probably worth no more than $26. However, we should get prices and if so, and they hit numbers and show growth, it's worth $29-$33. FTK did well today and seems like it wants to go higher. I still think we are going higher on the name.
Now I want to address a particularly bio stock, ADLS. I didn't own this but I know many hot traders where in it today and got LIT up. This is why biotech is dangerous and frankly the SEC is totally asleep. My sources tell me there was a conference today and no news was released (it just was released at 6pm). However, at 1:45p there was a monster selll off from a $1.40 to $.30 in 2 minutes. In my view, two things happened:
1. A hedge fund put a monster short position on, tipped an analyst $250,000 grand to spread a rumor, caused a selloff and the hedge fund made a quick 60% day trade. Some newbies to trading need to know this garbage goes on and I hate it. Some hedge funds trade like 5 days a year and make their year in one day. This could have happened and analyst integrity is another issue I will blog about another day but unfortunately stuff like this goes on. The reason I do this trading blog for free and post research is to help the average retail investor out, so you can make some money and enjoy life. However, there are many crooks who don't care about anyone but their commission fees and yearly returns and will do anything to make it...I mean ANYTHING.
2. The other option is that some one leaked the test results and it got to a major hedge and they blew out of the position (or put the short position on before and then boom it hit).
I DO NOT know if either of these two things happened but I wouldn't be surprised.
Now to my biotech basket. I WARN YOU THAT THESE STOCKS CAN FALL 60% IN A SECOND, JUST LIKE ADLS. However, I will also say this. If I thought I would lose, I wouldn't buy it, I'm not a dumbass. I mean I know I could lose the 60% in a day that why I play it small; however, I research it out and I know a great biotech trader and talk the stocks out with him. I have BDSI and I'm up a $1 so far and for NEPH I am up about .10 cents but I am holding both. BDSI should have an approval in 2 weeks and NEPH should be anyday.
Now I want to address a particularly bio stock, ADLS. I didn't own this but I know many hot traders where in it today and got LIT up. This is why biotech is dangerous and frankly the SEC is totally asleep. My sources tell me there was a conference today and no news was released (it just was released at 6pm). However, at 1:45p there was a monster selll off from a $1.40 to $.30 in 2 minutes. In my view, two things happened:
1. A hedge fund put a monster short position on, tipped an analyst $250,000 grand to spread a rumor, caused a selloff and the hedge fund made a quick 60% day trade. Some newbies to trading need to know this garbage goes on and I hate it. Some hedge funds trade like 5 days a year and make their year in one day. This could have happened and analyst integrity is another issue I will blog about another day but unfortunately stuff like this goes on. The reason I do this trading blog for free and post research is to help the average retail investor out, so you can make some money and enjoy life. However, there are many crooks who don't care about anyone but their commission fees and yearly returns and will do anything to make it...I mean ANYTHING.
2. The other option is that some one leaked the test results and it got to a major hedge and they blew out of the position (or put the short position on before and then boom it hit).
I DO NOT know if either of these two things happened but I wouldn't be surprised.
Now to my biotech basket. I WARN YOU THAT THESE STOCKS CAN FALL 60% IN A SECOND, JUST LIKE ADLS. However, I will also say this. If I thought I would lose, I wouldn't buy it, I'm not a dumbass. I mean I know I could lose the 60% in a day that why I play it small; however, I research it out and I know a great biotech trader and talk the stocks out with him. I have BDSI and I'm up a $1 so far and for NEPH I am up about .10 cents but I am holding both. BDSI should have an approval in 2 weeks and NEPH should be anyday.
Market Outlook
Futures seem relatively flat, which is expected after a monster day like yesterday. I have no idea what the market is going to do today but we could give back some but I don't think it's nothing major. The charts are telling us that support on the S&P are at 924, so we might have a re-test soon but then again we might not. Let me quickly elaborate on the market. I personally know 3 hedge fund managers and I am in contact with them daily for the most part. Here is their view and allocation:
1. Manager #1 - I would say at least 65% cash, 25% long, 10% short. Doesn't know if rally will continue.
2. Manager #2 - Was next net short, which no short exposure on individual stocks but on indicies. He covered a new portion of his short exposure and added some international exposure and so small cap value. I would say he is 80% long, 20% short. Market neutral.
3. Manager #3 - Has barely any short exposure, maybe 4% at most (if any). Long about 80-85% and about 15% cash. Believes the market rally will continue.
Each of these 3 guys have had monster years because all three caught the bottom. One of these 3 leaves buys in the comments sections from time to time as well. The point is that all 3 views are relatively different, so I personally am 78% long and 22% cash.
I see that JPM is raising $5M to repay tarp. Think there could be a trade in JPM if you can get the stock on the open market below the offering price. Many other banks are doing the same, which is a good sign. As for my holdings, I will hope that I don't get speared by my OTC biotech picks but who knows, if I lose, I lose, it's a lotto ticket. I am refering to NEPH. This thing could drop to 10 cents on a bad ruling or double on a good ruling...so we shall see. I gotta run, catch yall later.
1. Manager #1 - I would say at least 65% cash, 25% long, 10% short. Doesn't know if rally will continue.
2. Manager #2 - Was next net short, which no short exposure on individual stocks but on indicies. He covered a new portion of his short exposure and added some international exposure and so small cap value. I would say he is 80% long, 20% short. Market neutral.
3. Manager #3 - Has barely any short exposure, maybe 4% at most (if any). Long about 80-85% and about 15% cash. Believes the market rally will continue.
Each of these 3 guys have had monster years because all three caught the bottom. One of these 3 leaves buys in the comments sections from time to time as well. The point is that all 3 views are relatively different, so I personally am 78% long and 22% cash.
I see that JPM is raising $5M to repay tarp. Think there could be a trade in JPM if you can get the stock on the open market below the offering price. Many other banks are doing the same, which is a good sign. As for my holdings, I will hope that I don't get speared by my OTC biotech picks but who knows, if I lose, I lose, it's a lotto ticket. I am refering to NEPH. This thing could drop to 10 cents on a bad ruling or double on a good ruling...so we shall see. I gotta run, catch yall later.
Monday, June 1, 2009
RF Tip # 1 - Don't Focus on Score
When I grew up, I played golf competively in many junior state tournaments. I practiced alot and learned that golf was 80% mental. Most of the time a golfer will try to go play another golfer; however, in reality they are just playing the course. The best pros in golf make the fewest errors and the same applies in trading. However, one of the biggest errors many competitive golfers make is focusing too much on score. Many golfers try too hard to make a birdie or par and underestimate the chances for a pulled tee shot OB, buried sand lie, etc. When the semi-pro golfer realizes this and makes a bad score, like a 6 or 7, they immediately blowup because they cannot get that score out of their head. In my earlier years I did this; however, I adopted a strategy that took my thoughts away from this. I did one of two things:
1. I just wrote the score per hole down but did not add it up until I was done.
2. Or - I played for "every 3 holes". So for example, (I was a 2-3 handicap in my prime) so I would try to make 13 on every 3 holes. So even if I had a bad hole, I had two holes to get to a sum of 13, for every 3 holes. And if I shot 13 on every 3 holes, I would end up with a 78 and normally finish well (not win but good enough).
So what does this have to do with trading? Alot. Many people try to trade and their "score" is their account balance. The trader gets mad if they lose $200 in an account one day and gets happy if they make $400 the next. The truth is if you do that, I will bet my entire net worth that your account will be at $0 in 18 months. In reality, the account balance is 100% MEANINGLESS. It's not profit until it's 100% cash. What matters is your disipline, strategy, homework, and patience. I mean some may think, well I'll buy it because RF has done the HW, so I'll be good but that doesn't work all the time in essense. I mean if it was that easy, everyone would go buy Buffett's holdings released every quarter and they would be millionaires. Anyways, the point of the story is this:
1. Don't focus on score (your account balance)
2. Instead focus on why you do the trade and try to reduce errors. Every trade you put on, you should try to be able to explain to a person for 10 minutes why you own it and why it's going higher (this is what brokers do). I personally write out my recommendations for certain sectors. I shorted commercial real estate in 4Q08/1Q09 and read over 1100 pages of data and probably wrote out 50 pages that explained my story. Do you have to do that, no, but it gave me a strategy, which was the equivalent of "driving range practice". As a result I netted thousands from it, in a period where the market was down 40-50%.
1. I just wrote the score per hole down but did not add it up until I was done.
2. Or - I played for "every 3 holes". So for example, (I was a 2-3 handicap in my prime) so I would try to make 13 on every 3 holes. So even if I had a bad hole, I had two holes to get to a sum of 13, for every 3 holes. And if I shot 13 on every 3 holes, I would end up with a 78 and normally finish well (not win but good enough).
So what does this have to do with trading? Alot. Many people try to trade and their "score" is their account balance. The trader gets mad if they lose $200 in an account one day and gets happy if they make $400 the next. The truth is if you do that, I will bet my entire net worth that your account will be at $0 in 18 months. In reality, the account balance is 100% MEANINGLESS. It's not profit until it's 100% cash. What matters is your disipline, strategy, homework, and patience. I mean some may think, well I'll buy it because RF has done the HW, so I'll be good but that doesn't work all the time in essense. I mean if it was that easy, everyone would go buy Buffett's holdings released every quarter and they would be millionaires. Anyways, the point of the story is this:
1. Don't focus on score (your account balance)
2. Instead focus on why you do the trade and try to reduce errors. Every trade you put on, you should try to be able to explain to a person for 10 minutes why you own it and why it's going higher (this is what brokers do). I personally write out my recommendations for certain sectors. I shorted commercial real estate in 4Q08/1Q09 and read over 1100 pages of data and probably wrote out 50 pages that explained my story. Do you have to do that, no, but it gave me a strategy, which was the equivalent of "driving range practice". As a result I netted thousands from it, in a period where the market was down 40-50%.
Position Update: GIGM
GIGM is on Motley Fool's Top 7 Highly Rated Stocks on Sale!
http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2009/05/28/7-highly-rated-stocks-on-sale.aspx
http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2009/05/28/7-highly-rated-stocks-on-sale.aspx
Position Update: YHOO
Upgraded by Barclays Capital to Overweight w/ $20 Price Target today.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/yahoo-upgraded-to-overweight-at-barclays-capital
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/yahoo-upgraded-to-overweight-at-barclays-capital
Market Wrapup - Strategic Edition
I pray no one was caught short today. What a blowup day. Gains were very high but no need to elaborate because RF is a humble man. Today actually was a good day for the market but for the US, it was rather sad. An american icon went bankrupt. A company that made a living for many families and sent children to college is now gone (or will never be the same).
As for the market, the indicators show we are overbought but duh everyone knows that. I think we are going higher, even from these levels. The S&P blew through the 200 day moving average today, which has created new waves of money coming into the market. I can be a bull or a bear but I gotta be honest, I think are rolling higher. In my view, the NASDAQ still ain't expensive compared to historical valuations. NASDAQ 2,000 can more than happen this year, not calling it, but I could see it.
Now for my strategy. Going forward, I will remove small cap trading stocks and constantly replaced them. These small cap runners will account for about 20% of my portfolio. I will keep core, large cap stocks for about 60-70% of the account, and keep the rest cash. No short exposure yet but I have some candidates. The rest, 10-20% will be cash. I look to add international exposure, my top pick being EWZ. Of course, I buy it at $47, sell it at $52 and now it's at $57 - classic RF. I will buy it back soon because emerging markets seem to be hot. Value in the market is difficult to find; however, there are some areas out there. I went to buy PZE today and it shot off like a gun; however, some oil names like COP or CVX are fairly cheap and some tech and more speculative areas like airlines. I will also look for short squeeze plays. Lastly, I will continue to look for technical breakouts.
All in all, I will be taking profits but at the same time, leaving stocks on the table so I won't miss out on anything. I am sticking by the S&P call of 1050+ by labor day and will act accordingly.
As for the market, the indicators show we are overbought but duh everyone knows that. I think we are going higher, even from these levels. The S&P blew through the 200 day moving average today, which has created new waves of money coming into the market. I can be a bull or a bear but I gotta be honest, I think are rolling higher. In my view, the NASDAQ still ain't expensive compared to historical valuations. NASDAQ 2,000 can more than happen this year, not calling it, but I could see it.
Now for my strategy. Going forward, I will remove small cap trading stocks and constantly replaced them. These small cap runners will account for about 20% of my portfolio. I will keep core, large cap stocks for about 60-70% of the account, and keep the rest cash. No short exposure yet but I have some candidates. The rest, 10-20% will be cash. I look to add international exposure, my top pick being EWZ. Of course, I buy it at $47, sell it at $52 and now it's at $57 - classic RF. I will buy it back soon because emerging markets seem to be hot. Value in the market is difficult to find; however, there are some areas out there. I went to buy PZE today and it shot off like a gun; however, some oil names like COP or CVX are fairly cheap and some tech and more speculative areas like airlines. I will also look for short squeeze plays. Lastly, I will continue to look for technical breakouts.
All in all, I will be taking profits but at the same time, leaving stocks on the table so I won't miss out on anything. I am sticking by the S&P call of 1050+ by labor day and will act accordingly.
Market Update
At a pival point in the market, Tune in tonight at 7PM and I'll discuss my stratigy going forward.
RF buys 400 MWA @ $3.92
Market Outlook
Yeap, the shorts once again get caught short and are squeezed. As a trader, there is nothing more thrilling when you are long and are squeezing the shorts, it's an great feeling. Oil continues to run as well, printing over $68. Oilboy75's $200 oil prediction might come true lolllllll. Gold is up as well, about $990 an oz in pre-market. Regardless, according to the futures, it looks as if this rally continues. There is no reason to short or fight the tape, even tho the CNBC "experts" tell you to "sell this market".
Sunday, May 31, 2009
RF Position Update (all accounts)
AMD - Still holding. Feel like this spec will payoff with the bottom in the PC market. Was down Friday due to weaker Dell forecast; however, I believe we are at the bottom for the PC market. Semiconductors will be underweight while big funds go into oil and industrials, so buy the dips!
ATHR - Cheap, cheap semiconductor and low inventories will force bigger orders for later part of 2009. If you want to buy, look at $15.50 for a entry (if you get it).
CPE - Oil play spec from the past, still like the chart. Trading rental.
CTIC- Finally a breakout Friday. Took off a little Friday from a trigger sale above $1.50 but still got alot. The shorts capitalulated on this one Friday; however, it's not a microcap, so the "momo" is not as fierce as a RUTH, END, or FEED.
DELL-I thought about selling all of it Friday but decided not too. I still like tech for the long-term. Numbers were bleak but I think technology is still the hotspot and Dell is very cheap.
DIG - Oil names cheap, especially CVX and COP. I still the $27 June Calls and am up 100% but am not selling (I might exercise them for a longer term bet - will post my decision soon).
DXO- Oil is running hard. The charts are saying $75 but I dunno. I might trim some this week but for now I am holding and hoping for a $70 crude print (however I hate paying $2.40 at the pump for regular). Oil should print $100 by next summer unless we get our act together.
ENTR -Volatile little spec but am sticking by it and will add more below $2.
EXM - Still own some and it's a good friend of mine. Will hold for a while, the Baltic Dry Index is on fire.
F- Still love it and probably has the best CEO in the USA.
FCS - Long since $5 and still love it. It will continue to run higher, unknown semi that has legs!
FTK - Short squeeze play. Finally we got the big volume confirmation on Friday, I hope that marks a short-term bottom in the stock but we needed it to finish up and it didn't. I am not selling.
FRO - My biggest position in $$ amount. The quarter was good but outlook was unsteady. If oil runs, shippers should run but it is funny to see how many oil firms are storing oil everywhere. The OPEC output cuts scare me but I like it for a long purchase at $21 or below but will hold for now.
GIGM-A flat out dog but from everything I see the stock is dirt cheap. I posted estimates two weeks ago on Chinese stuff (FMCN and GIGM Title) and it sells at like 7x earnings and has strong growth. Earnings June 7th and will hold and believe if they prove people and analysts wrong, the stock will go way higher.
GLW- LCD demand is coming back big time, love the stock. Short $13 puts and long the common. Has 2 to 4 points in it.
GNK- Still got a thinner position but don't know if we will ever see the teens again on this one. Great firm with tons of debt but it's been my favorite since $13 and I am sticking by it.
HL - My only silver/gold play. I still got SLW in my one of my portfolios that I bought at $3.3o in November (up 190%) but it's not a large position. A month ago, I bought NXG at $1.50 and sold at $2.05 and now look at it (like $2.40). Need some exposure and it's a dog but even dogs will run with gold and silver smoking hot.
LUV - I don't know why I like airlines but I do. I like this and CAL the best. Am holding for now.
PLLL- Another trading rental, cheap oil again.
RFMD-This is going higher, especially if it can get through $2.90 resistance. I love this chip.
SGY - Took position Friday, good technical chart, and I think it's going higher.
SSO - Hedged bet on S&P, see RF S&P call Revisited for my view.
THQI-Showing off their deck at EQ3. I really like management on this company, better than TTWO.
YHOO- Believe last Q was trough earnings from Yahoo and Google. Going forward money managers will buy YHOO and GOOG and it's always a takeover possibility.
ATHR - Cheap, cheap semiconductor and low inventories will force bigger orders for later part of 2009. If you want to buy, look at $15.50 for a entry (if you get it).
CPE - Oil play spec from the past, still like the chart. Trading rental.
CTIC- Finally a breakout Friday. Took off a little Friday from a trigger sale above $1.50 but still got alot. The shorts capitalulated on this one Friday; however, it's not a microcap, so the "momo" is not as fierce as a RUTH, END, or FEED.
DELL-I thought about selling all of it Friday but decided not too. I still like tech for the long-term. Numbers were bleak but I think technology is still the hotspot and Dell is very cheap.
DIG - Oil names cheap, especially CVX and COP. I still the $27 June Calls and am up 100% but am not selling (I might exercise them for a longer term bet - will post my decision soon).
DXO- Oil is running hard. The charts are saying $75 but I dunno. I might trim some this week but for now I am holding and hoping for a $70 crude print (however I hate paying $2.40 at the pump for regular). Oil should print $100 by next summer unless we get our act together.
ENTR -Volatile little spec but am sticking by it and will add more below $2.
EXM - Still own some and it's a good friend of mine. Will hold for a while, the Baltic Dry Index is on fire.
F- Still love it and probably has the best CEO in the USA.
FCS - Long since $5 and still love it. It will continue to run higher, unknown semi that has legs!
FTK - Short squeeze play. Finally we got the big volume confirmation on Friday, I hope that marks a short-term bottom in the stock but we needed it to finish up and it didn't. I am not selling.
FRO - My biggest position in $$ amount. The quarter was good but outlook was unsteady. If oil runs, shippers should run but it is funny to see how many oil firms are storing oil everywhere. The OPEC output cuts scare me but I like it for a long purchase at $21 or below but will hold for now.
GIGM-A flat out dog but from everything I see the stock is dirt cheap. I posted estimates two weeks ago on Chinese stuff (FMCN and GIGM Title) and it sells at like 7x earnings and has strong growth. Earnings June 7th and will hold and believe if they prove people and analysts wrong, the stock will go way higher.
GLW- LCD demand is coming back big time, love the stock. Short $13 puts and long the common. Has 2 to 4 points in it.
GNK- Still got a thinner position but don't know if we will ever see the teens again on this one. Great firm with tons of debt but it's been my favorite since $13 and I am sticking by it.
HL - My only silver/gold play. I still got SLW in my one of my portfolios that I bought at $3.3o in November (up 190%) but it's not a large position. A month ago, I bought NXG at $1.50 and sold at $2.05 and now look at it (like $2.40). Need some exposure and it's a dog but even dogs will run with gold and silver smoking hot.
LUV - I don't know why I like airlines but I do. I like this and CAL the best. Am holding for now.
PLLL- Another trading rental, cheap oil again.
RFMD-This is going higher, especially if it can get through $2.90 resistance. I love this chip.
SGY - Took position Friday, good technical chart, and I think it's going higher.
SSO - Hedged bet on S&P, see RF S&P call Revisited for my view.
THQI-Showing off their deck at EQ3. I really like management on this company, better than TTWO.
YHOO- Believe last Q was trough earnings from Yahoo and Google. Going forward money managers will buy YHOO and GOOG and it's always a takeover possibility.
AMZN
(Sources: SEC Documents, Citigroup Investment Research, William Blair & Cmpy Research)
If there is one company that totally defies the common "textbook" valuation methods taught in many schools today, that stock is Amazon. Historically, many investors are taught to look for companies with low to moderate PE's, low debt levels, cheap on price-to-book metrics, etc. for "long" buys and for "shorts" look at the opposite (high PE's, etc). AMZN right now sells at 50x 2009E and about 48x 2009E (current price $77.99) however, many analysts believe it is going higher. Since April 20th, Citi upgraded them to buy with $97 PT, RBC to outperform with $95 PT, and Benchmark to Hold with $80 PT. Even with those valuations, the multiples are extremely high. In addition, there has been extreme insider selling highlighted in the exhibit above.
Now raising the question, why the high price targets? One main reason is that Amazon has the ability to generate high free cash flow compared to its peers. The other reason, basically the key reason, is the Kindle. Bezos just released a new Kindle DX that is suppose to cost around $450 but will be larger in size. These valuations seems astronomical; however, the main question remains how big will the Kindle be? Above are some Citi estimates for the Kindle (just the old version) and also some Company FY pro forma estimates by William Blair.
Some investors (short sellers) believe everything is priced in Amazon and believe it's worth a lot less. However, other investors (the longs) believe that the Kindle has the potential to be the next "ipod" and bring amazing success. I am stumped because this is the first stock that I actually want to buy; however, want to short. Interesting to say the least but defintely a stock to research and develop a view towards.
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