I took at 150 share stake in TSM Wednesday around $9.40ish and they reported good stuff Friday night. Keep an eye on this name, semiconductor sales are starting to turn up. This stock is under $10 and can rip. Another risky semiconductor is UMC. Intel (INTC) is the solid pure play but TSM is my favorite.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idUKTP33780220090410?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0
Key Highlights from Report:
* Q1 sales fall but beat company and analysts' estimates
* Analysts bullish on Q2 sales
* Company is seeing rush orders due to Chinese Stimulus Package
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Strategy for Next Week - Part I
Many people started to accumulate short positions Friday and they might be right but here is what I think will happen. Wells Fargo really put some "mess" in the game, so I am anticipating that Bank of America, Citigroup, or JP Morgan will preannounce earnings Monday morning. Frankly, these bankers have egos the size of Texas, they are pissed Wells Fargo beat them to the punch, so they will be waiting in line to preannounce (RF prediction). If they drill, this will shoot the market to 875+ 0n the S&P and clear more shorts. (Please note, the voices in my head are telling me this).
I pulled back to 50% cash in case this doesn't happen; however, if we catch a pull back, I will buy select names. I will focus on various sectors tied to cyclical business operations, as well as the consumer. There is a particular restaurant I will buy in SIZE Monday morning, so get ready. Names that have been beaten, can bounce hard, so look hard. If I ran a hedge fund, and was net short, I would cover only select names, to raise cash and short at high levels. Many shorts have cleared but I expected that last week; however, more can go.
I like DKS and planned to buy it Friday morning but totally forgot to put it on my watchlist Thursday night, so by the time I remembered, it was up .80 cents from the open (classic RF moment).
Below are my top 5 portfolio holdings, ranked in order based on % of portfolio contribution:
1. JJC (Market Cap - don't apply it, traces the commodity)
2. PCU (Market Cap - $16.88 Billion)
3. EMC (Market Cap - $26 Billion)
4. IBKR (Market Cap - $640 million)
5. FEED (Market Cap - $92 million)
5. JAVA (Market Cap - $4.97 Billion) - (have strong put protection)
Lastly, let me discuss something, relating to portfolio positioning, particularly with market capitalization and stock selection. Lets say I have a stock portfolio, with 5 stocks. I make sure the market capitalization of my portfolio has proper "weight". For example, if I owned 5 stocks, I would not have all stocks under $500 million in market cap. That is highly risky in a downward market and could really hurt my gains. If you want to be overweight in stocks, I would a have top stocks with strong market capitalization, to reduce "sizeable" risk in the portfolio. So if you look at my top 5 holdings, excluding my Copper ETF, I have 3 large caps, 1 small cap, and 1 microcap. I personally believe the instrinsic value in FEED and IBKR are highly than current market levels; however, analysts don't believe in IBKR. In my view, they are really underestimating the profitable market maker business and the beautiful margins of the business. This quarter may not be great but as the market stabalizes, no firm can touch them. I have done some extensive research on the firm and comparables and IBKR's business model is brilliant. The only reason I have bought more is because I am unsure about the quarter. If we get a bad quarter, I will buy the dip, for the long-term. As for FEED, this thing has monster juice. They reports in March and the stock went from $1.08 to $2.50 in two days. Stick with the stops on Chinese microcappers. Anyways, this is not a general rule of thumb, but rather something that I personally do and thought of. Small/Micro caps provide the best "juice" but incase of pullbacks or "burns" have some solid large caps.
So in conclusion, think cyclical.
I pulled back to 50% cash in case this doesn't happen; however, if we catch a pull back, I will buy select names. I will focus on various sectors tied to cyclical business operations, as well as the consumer. There is a particular restaurant I will buy in SIZE Monday morning, so get ready. Names that have been beaten, can bounce hard, so look hard. If I ran a hedge fund, and was net short, I would cover only select names, to raise cash and short at high levels. Many shorts have cleared but I expected that last week; however, more can go.
I like DKS and planned to buy it Friday morning but totally forgot to put it on my watchlist Thursday night, so by the time I remembered, it was up .80 cents from the open (classic RF moment).
Below are my top 5 portfolio holdings, ranked in order based on % of portfolio contribution:
1. JJC (Market Cap - don't apply it, traces the commodity)
2. PCU (Market Cap - $16.88 Billion)
3. EMC (Market Cap - $26 Billion)
4. IBKR (Market Cap - $640 million)
5. FEED (Market Cap - $92 million)
5. JAVA (Market Cap - $4.97 Billion) - (have strong put protection)
Lastly, let me discuss something, relating to portfolio positioning, particularly with market capitalization and stock selection. Lets say I have a stock portfolio, with 5 stocks. I make sure the market capitalization of my portfolio has proper "weight". For example, if I owned 5 stocks, I would not have all stocks under $500 million in market cap. That is highly risky in a downward market and could really hurt my gains. If you want to be overweight in stocks, I would a have top stocks with strong market capitalization, to reduce "sizeable" risk in the portfolio. So if you look at my top 5 holdings, excluding my Copper ETF, I have 3 large caps, 1 small cap, and 1 microcap. I personally believe the instrinsic value in FEED and IBKR are highly than current market levels; however, analysts don't believe in IBKR. In my view, they are really underestimating the profitable market maker business and the beautiful margins of the business. This quarter may not be great but as the market stabalizes, no firm can touch them. I have done some extensive research on the firm and comparables and IBKR's business model is brilliant. The only reason I have bought more is because I am unsure about the quarter. If we get a bad quarter, I will buy the dip, for the long-term. As for FEED, this thing has monster juice. They reports in March and the stock went from $1.08 to $2.50 in two days. Stick with the stops on Chinese microcappers. Anyways, this is not a general rule of thumb, but rather something that I personally do and thought of. Small/Micro caps provide the best "juice" but incase of pullbacks or "burns" have some solid large caps.
So in conclusion, think cyclical.
Friday, April 10, 2009
It's Time to Buy Buffett
Berkshire Hathaway has recieved a beating during the past year, near the highs of $150,000 a share to lows below $70,000 a share. A big reason for this is because of the equity losses that evolved in Buffett's stock portfolio. In addition, his derivative bets were resulting in quarterly losses, however, he assures they will pay off in the long-term. I recently did an analysis on Berkshire Hathaway's equity holdings and found the following:
1. Berkshire Hathaways equity portfolio dropped 21% in value from Dec 31 08 to Mar 31 09. Rather interesting, considering the S&P was down 12% during the same time period.
2. Only 3 stocks in BRKA's equity portfolio were in positive % change value during that time period.
3. The biggest losses were in four (rather sizeable) holdings: WFC (-52%) , BAC (-41%), STI (-60%), and USB (-41%).
In the past month, Fitch has came in and downgraded Berkshire, which took the credit rating down from AAA. Moody's came out yesterday and did the same thing, causing many analysts and investors to question and fear Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, and his decision making.
Well, in reaction to this, I believe the ratings agencies are dead wrong and I think BRK.A is a buy!
Here is why:
1. The downgrade is absurd and not needed. Berkshire has over $35 billion in cash on the books and has plenty of capital, with no fear of liquidity. In addition, Buffett has striked brilliant debt deals with Harley Davidson that yield Berkshire 15% and preferred shares with GS and GE that yield him 10%. I am sure he would have preferred to negotiate better strikes on the preferreds but he will be fine with a five year time period. In addition, the derivative bets are based really on the S&P and he doesn't have to provide any collatoral. The long buyers of these derivatives are pension funds, who are looking to hedge their risk, not hedge funds.
2. The current stock price discounts the core businesses away from the equity portfolio. It is true that the insurance premiums and underwriting profitability is maturing; however, Buffett has created new companies, like bond insurance units, that can crush MBIA and Ambak. MBIA and Ambak underwrote insurance on toxic assets, which killed them. Buffett started fresh and is very risk adverse and will prosper, the "old traditional way".
Some analysts believe that the Berkshire's current equity portfolio is about $65,000-$75,000 a share. Currently, BRK.A is selling at $90,000, therefore you are getting the rest of the other companies at $15,000 per share, lol. This also takes in account the current value after Q1 2009, not the current or future state of those depressed equity values. WFC bounced 35% and Buffett owns like 10-15% of the firm, which can really help the equity portfolio. Anotherwards, if these finanicals bounce, BRKA can soar, due to the increased value in the equity portfolio. My last point comes from reading the annual report and studying the books. It seems that your are really paying like 2x EBITDA on these operating firms, which is screaming "buy me". He does have some cyclical names, like Nebraska Furniture Mart for example; however, they also some durable companies like GEICO. These businesses are stable, have a great parent firm, and will appreciate with time.
In conclusion, there may be many bears and short sellers of BRK.A (BRK.B is the 1/16 of it) but this stock opportunity offers great value. What really brought this to my light is WFC's good news Friday, it will greatly help Berkshire's stock price. BRK.B is the best way for the ordinary trader to play it. It sells for around $3,000 a share (very expensive in price lol) but I think it will hit $3750 within 2009, representing a great buy/hold opportunity, with 25%+ upside.
1. Berkshire Hathaways equity portfolio dropped 21% in value from Dec 31 08 to Mar 31 09. Rather interesting, considering the S&P was down 12% during the same time period.
2. Only 3 stocks in BRKA's equity portfolio were in positive % change value during that time period.
3. The biggest losses were in four (rather sizeable) holdings: WFC (-52%) , BAC (-41%), STI (-60%), and USB (-41%).
In the past month, Fitch has came in and downgraded Berkshire, which took the credit rating down from AAA. Moody's came out yesterday and did the same thing, causing many analysts and investors to question and fear Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, and his decision making.
Well, in reaction to this, I believe the ratings agencies are dead wrong and I think BRK.A is a buy!
Here is why:
1. The downgrade is absurd and not needed. Berkshire has over $35 billion in cash on the books and has plenty of capital, with no fear of liquidity. In addition, Buffett has striked brilliant debt deals with Harley Davidson that yield Berkshire 15% and preferred shares with GS and GE that yield him 10%. I am sure he would have preferred to negotiate better strikes on the preferreds but he will be fine with a five year time period. In addition, the derivative bets are based really on the S&P and he doesn't have to provide any collatoral. The long buyers of these derivatives are pension funds, who are looking to hedge their risk, not hedge funds.
2. The current stock price discounts the core businesses away from the equity portfolio. It is true that the insurance premiums and underwriting profitability is maturing; however, Buffett has created new companies, like bond insurance units, that can crush MBIA and Ambak. MBIA and Ambak underwrote insurance on toxic assets, which killed them. Buffett started fresh and is very risk adverse and will prosper, the "old traditional way".
Some analysts believe that the Berkshire's current equity portfolio is about $65,000-$75,000 a share. Currently, BRK.A is selling at $90,000, therefore you are getting the rest of the other companies at $15,000 per share, lol. This also takes in account the current value after Q1 2009, not the current or future state of those depressed equity values. WFC bounced 35% and Buffett owns like 10-15% of the firm, which can really help the equity portfolio. Anotherwards, if these finanicals bounce, BRKA can soar, due to the increased value in the equity portfolio. My last point comes from reading the annual report and studying the books. It seems that your are really paying like 2x EBITDA on these operating firms, which is screaming "buy me". He does have some cyclical names, like Nebraska Furniture Mart for example; however, they also some durable companies like GEICO. These businesses are stable, have a great parent firm, and will appreciate with time.
In conclusion, there may be many bears and short sellers of BRK.A (BRK.B is the 1/16 of it) but this stock opportunity offers great value. What really brought this to my light is WFC's good news Friday, it will greatly help Berkshire's stock price. BRK.B is the best way for the ordinary trader to play it. It sells for around $3,000 a share (very expensive in price lol) but I think it will hit $3750 within 2009, representing a great buy/hold opportunity, with 25%+ upside.
Commodities King Dennis Gartman
He is bullish on Copper, Aluminum, Wheat, and Soybeans. Great video. He is a bit skeptical of oil but thinks copper stocks are just getting started...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30137171
Aluminum: AA, KALU, TIE, CENX
Copper: PCU, FCX, JJC
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30137171
Aluminum: AA, KALU, TIE, CENX
Copper: PCU, FCX, JJC
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Market Wrapup
Great day on the market folks, this was the short squeeze I was looking for. WFC destroyed the FAZ and the bears today, announcing a record $3 billion profit for Q1 2009. I tell you, these banks might be drilling earnings and all of these CEO's are sandbagging. I did not see this coming at all. My dad told me told when FAS was at $5 and FAZ was at $28 - "at same point, these will touch" and he is right, haha, it might be real soon.
Let's just think for a minute. A month ago the S&P was at 668, people were saying we were going to 500 and to sell everything you had in the stock market. Now, the S&P is at 856 and looks like it can hit 900. One month! That's all it took. The VIX (the fear indicator) is below 40. Big money managers will throw mad cash in the market with the VIX below 40.
As for my portfolio, I am in 50% cash. I booked alot of profit today and I'm proud that I stayed that displined. I am a little pissed about TTWO but after deal rumors go away (they might not) the stock may go back in the low $7's and I will take it back. If not, I will step back, realize that I knew the story and I can do it again, with another firm. My biggest position remains copper but I look to trim some next week (PCU, not the JJC). I really wished I would have pulled the trigger on DKS or GNK today but just didn't do it. The TLT remains my "fear hedge" so if the market tanks, it will go up in price (as people run to treasuries). However, I am aware this thought could be ending soon, as people will develop more appetite for risky assets (therefore I will bite the loss). Small caps are rolling, so I kept my JASO, CROX (250 shrs), and FEED. In addition, I believe tech, semiconductors, and copper will remain hot, so I got my exposure with TSM, EMC, PCU, and JJC. My portfolio YTD return is still great (its over 100% but won't say because I am not like that) so going forward, I will trade more cautiously, yet more agressively. Meaning, I will double up my time on the research, be more selective, and build bigger positions (and hopefully fewer names), both long and short.
Monday is a new day, so think fresh and there are always opportunities out there, long or short. I will post my thoughts on FEED, as well as other stuff over the weekend. Have a great Easter!
Let's just think for a minute. A month ago the S&P was at 668, people were saying we were going to 500 and to sell everything you had in the stock market. Now, the S&P is at 856 and looks like it can hit 900. One month! That's all it took. The VIX (the fear indicator) is below 40. Big money managers will throw mad cash in the market with the VIX below 40.
As for my portfolio, I am in 50% cash. I booked alot of profit today and I'm proud that I stayed that displined. I am a little pissed about TTWO but after deal rumors go away (they might not) the stock may go back in the low $7's and I will take it back. If not, I will step back, realize that I knew the story and I can do it again, with another firm. My biggest position remains copper but I look to trim some next week (PCU, not the JJC). I really wished I would have pulled the trigger on DKS or GNK today but just didn't do it. The TLT remains my "fear hedge" so if the market tanks, it will go up in price (as people run to treasuries). However, I am aware this thought could be ending soon, as people will develop more appetite for risky assets (therefore I will bite the loss). Small caps are rolling, so I kept my JASO, CROX (250 shrs), and FEED. In addition, I believe tech, semiconductors, and copper will remain hot, so I got my exposure with TSM, EMC, PCU, and JJC. My portfolio YTD return is still great (its over 100% but won't say because I am not like that) so going forward, I will trade more cautiously, yet more agressively. Meaning, I will double up my time on the research, be more selective, and build bigger positions (and hopefully fewer names), both long and short.
Monday is a new day, so think fresh and there are always opportunities out there, long or short. I will post my thoughts on FEED, as well as other stuff over the weekend. Have a great Easter!
TTWO Update - Happy Easter
Just as I sold my entire stake yesterday, this thing will probably get bought by next week. Look at the volume in the $10 calls today. I also made a joke, saying it would be $10 by Easter... Well Jon Najarian just pumped it on Fast Money and the bid is $9.50 in after hours. Happy Easter everyone!
RF call on March 11th-
Keep in Mind
The market is net short right now. I have no idea where we will open Monday but just keep that in mind.
EMC
Just broke $13, still long 200 shares...keep an eye, the option activity is wild.
They own like 80% of VMW and the takeover rumors in VMW have been crazy
They own like 80% of VMW and the takeover rumors in VMW have been crazy
RF Buy - FEED
Bought 1,000 shares at $2.35.
I see a bull flag forming and I put a stop at $2.24 (below the lower trendline).
Price Target: From a technical perspective, I see a 10% - 50% run.
I see a bull flag forming and I put a stop at $2.24 (below the lower trendline).
Price Target: From a technical perspective, I see a 10% - 50% run.
RF Sell CIEN and SSO calls
Sold 75 cien at 8.98- 50 profit
Sold SSO 22 calls at .90 cents - 90% gain, 110 profit
Sold SSO 22 calls at .90 cents - 90% gain, 110 profit
Market Outlook
It's the last trading day of the week, will we ramp higher or tank? Futures are strong because same-store sales were great, for the month of March. Jobless claims are at 8:30a, so things could change. A retailer that I am looking at is DKS (Dick's Sporting Goods). It's at $15.85 now, so I might buy some this morning. It has a very high short interest (around 19%), so it might be worth a look for a quick trade. GHM is another cheap name.
As for my shorter term trades, I still have: CIEN, CROX, JASO, LDK, PKD, AMKR and TSM.
I hoping we can get another big day and I will clear some and keep some.
As for another possible $1 stock runner, I MAY have found one:
OCNF - it closed at $1.21, we shall see how it goes (best for a day trade or so).
IO looks interesting as well.
I'm gone, be back later.
As for my shorter term trades, I still have: CIEN, CROX, JASO, LDK, PKD, AMKR and TSM.
I hoping we can get another big day and I will clear some and keep some.
As for another possible $1 stock runner, I MAY have found one:
OCNF - it closed at $1.21, we shall see how it goes (best for a day trade or so).
IO looks interesting as well.
I'm gone, be back later.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Market Wrapup
Finally, we are back on track to winning. Great day across the board, starting with a great earnings report for FDO. I have to be honest, I am really impressed with this firm's management. They are honest, to the point, and wall-street likes these guys. It's getting a little rich on valuation ($40 is probably the highest it can get in this market) but this is a great investment. I bought some small stocks also and caught the breakout in LDK. I sold a 200 but am holding 200. I think it can go to $9, just don't know when. I should've gotten in JOSB, but oh well, I knew people would be buying suits lol.
Going forward, it will be difficult. I think we can rally higher tomorrow but retail sales are tomorrow, so who knows. The VIX is under 40, which is great for the long side. Many fund managers will put money to work with the VIX below 40. I still have FAZ and the TLT as my hedge but I have a lot longs.
Ill be back a little later, take it easy.
Going forward, it will be difficult. I think we can rally higher tomorrow but retail sales are tomorrow, so who knows. The VIX is under 40, which is great for the long side. Many fund managers will put money to work with the VIX below 40. I still have FAZ and the TLT as my hedge but I have a lot longs.
Ill be back a little later, take it easy.
RF Sell TTWO
Yes this pains me but I sold my last bit. I didn't want to but it had huge gains and I want more cash. I know this stock will be bright and ill be back but this years prospects are dim and shorts may see that. Ill buy back cheaper
STOCKS UNDER $10
IF WE ARE GONNA DABBLE, LETS DABBLE.
I like TER and AMKR
Buying some AMKR here at $3.30
I like TER and AMKR
Buying some AMKR here at $3.30
RF BUY LDK
Bought 400 @ $7
Lets break the 50 DAY PLEASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSE
NOTE: THIS WILL PROBABLY BE A DAY TRADE, HOPING TO BREAK THE 50 DAY.
Lets break the 50 DAY PLEASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSE
NOTE: THIS WILL PROBABLY BE A DAY TRADE, HOPING TO BREAK THE 50 DAY.
FDO Earnings - Met Expectations - Raise FY Outlook
Raises FY EPS from $1.88 to $1.90-$2.00
* Q2 EPS $0.60 vs year-ago EPS $0.45
* Sales up 8.7 percent
* Sees fiscal 2009 sales up 5-7 pct, EPS $1.90-$2.00
NEW YORK, April 8 (Reuters) - Family Dollar Stores Inc (FDO.N) posted a higher second-quarter profit on Wednesday as consumers looking for ways to stretch their budgets shopped in its discount stores.
Family Dollar, which prices most of its merchandise below $10, reported a profit of $84.1 million, or 60 cents per share, for its fiscal second quarter, ended Feb. 28. That compared with $63.3 million, or 45 cents per share, a year earlier.
Sales rose 8.7 percent to $1.99 billion, the company said.
In March, Family Dollar said second-quarter same-store sales rose 6.4 percent, beating estimates for a 3.6 percent gain, as shoppers snapped up consumable items, like food.
For fiscal 2009, which ends on Aug. 29, Family Dollar forecast a sales increase of 5 percent to 7 percent, and a same-store increase of 3 percent to 5 percent. It also expects to earn $1.90 per share to $2.00 per share for the year.
As for my FDO Holdings: I will early morning, maybe not right at the open but the conference call is at 10a and probably after that. Fund managers will be on that call and if management sounds optomistic (which they do) it could trigger buying.
* Q2 EPS $0.60 vs year-ago EPS $0.45
* Sales up 8.7 percent
* Sees fiscal 2009 sales up 5-7 pct, EPS $1.90-$2.00
NEW YORK, April 8 (Reuters) - Family Dollar Stores Inc (FDO.N) posted a higher second-quarter profit on Wednesday as consumers looking for ways to stretch their budgets shopped in its discount stores.
Family Dollar, which prices most of its merchandise below $10, reported a profit of $84.1 million, or 60 cents per share, for its fiscal second quarter, ended Feb. 28. That compared with $63.3 million, or 45 cents per share, a year earlier.
Sales rose 8.7 percent to $1.99 billion, the company said.
In March, Family Dollar said second-quarter same-store sales rose 6.4 percent, beating estimates for a 3.6 percent gain, as shoppers snapped up consumable items, like food.
For fiscal 2009, which ends on Aug. 29, Family Dollar forecast a sales increase of 5 percent to 7 percent, and a same-store increase of 3 percent to 5 percent. It also expects to earn $1.90 per share to $2.00 per share for the year.
As for my FDO Holdings: I will early morning, maybe not right at the open but the conference call is at 10a and probably after that. Fund managers will be on that call and if management sounds optomistic (which they do) it could trigger buying.
Introducing the Golden Bull-May it Bring Luck to FDO
Bears - Go Run and Hide!
Market Outlook: The best I can give is to play small. Futures were down to 800 at one point and they have recovered to about 810, mostly to the Centex Homes and Pulte Homes merger. I believe we will retrace very, very soon (we might be in it now) so keep HIGH cash levels. If you have strong profits, take half or all. We could easily pull back to 700, which I would love. When you have the opportunity to buy great firms like AMZN for $50-60, you can make alot of money. I still think we can rally this week because of thin volume but honestly, I am the only person that believes so. I looked at my positions and there is really what I have. I have about 50% cash, 10% short/fixed income, 40% equities. I really want to reduce my equities holdings to about 20%, to get about a 70% cash level but I jammed right now because I have unrealized losses in a bunch of names. Plus, I have some weird longs like JAVA that could be bought or "in play" any minute. If I had positions I had to sell now, they would be CIEN, CROX, GNK, and JASO but most of these are really tiny positions and I want a strong pop then will clear them all. PCU and JJC I will not sell but may even buy more. EMC is on the brink but I will hold TTWO and IBKR because these are companies I really understand. IBKR's downgrade was too negative, the same clowns were downgraded them, downgraded ICE and ICE shot up like 5 points yesterday because they are moving CDS paper like crazy.
So in conclusion, I think it's best to get a little short here but more importantly raise some cash.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Options Update
With April turning over here soon, here are some possible March plays that I am looking at (no position):
S May $5 calls
XLB May $10 or $11 calls
PALM May $10 calls
Note: If we continue to sell off, use strikes closer to in the money.
S May $5 calls
XLB May $10 or $11 calls
PALM May $10 calls
Note: If we continue to sell off, use strikes closer to in the money.
Market Wrapup
I got crushed again today. The TLT and FAZ was the only green on my board but I am hoping for a bounce and a big earnings pop from FDO. It's a tough one but I hope it works. Frankly, this selloff was nasty but I wasn't too impressed. The volume was very light, the VIX was down, and when looking at the tape, it was not much short selling going on, just flat out profit taking. I raised some cash but held everything. I bought back FAZ, right after I sold it (50 at $17.20) just to keep a hedge. My other hedge is the TLT.
Look, I apologize because I straight botched today but I have to be honest I am bullish. Some technicals looks like we could hit 800 but I might buy the dip. Frankly, I plan on holding and selling some of my longs into strength, then buy others. My technicals indicators showed Thursday that we were overbought (getting toppy) but I think we have a chance of going higher. Bed Bath and Beyond and Ruby Tuesday's crushed earnings after the bell, who cares about Alcoa? Those two beating earnings look good to me, it shows signs the consumer has health. Alcoa is under pricing pressure because demand is slow, therefore, it's a risky bet; however, everyone knows the stock was going to report bad #'s.
I'll be back later...hang in there (I am trying myself)...if were net short today, congrats.
Look, I apologize because I straight botched today but I have to be honest I am bullish. Some technicals looks like we could hit 800 but I might buy the dip. Frankly, I plan on holding and selling some of my longs into strength, then buy others. My technicals indicators showed Thursday that we were overbought (getting toppy) but I think we have a chance of going higher. Bed Bath and Beyond and Ruby Tuesday's crushed earnings after the bell, who cares about Alcoa? Those two beating earnings look good to me, it shows signs the consumer has health. Alcoa is under pricing pressure because demand is slow, therefore, it's a risky bet; however, everyone knows the stock was going to report bad #'s.
I'll be back later...hang in there (I am trying myself)...if were net short today, congrats.
RF Sell TTWO
Sold half of my stake to raise cash.
I totally blew this call today. Normally, short weeks always have low volume and create short squeezes but people are simplying taking profits.
I look to hold: IBKR, PCR, JJC, TLT, FDO calls,and EMC.
The rest may all be in cash by the close.
I totally blew this call today. Normally, short weeks always have low volume and create short squeezes but people are simplying taking profits.
I look to hold: IBKR, PCR, JJC, TLT, FDO calls,and EMC.
The rest may all be in cash by the close.
Uptick Rule
Tomorrow is the big ruling and of course it will be reinstated, so are the shorts going to cover ahead of the meeting? Or just try to milk the last dollars?
Market Outlook - April 7th
It looks as if my market time machine is broken. I thought we would be up rather good today but futures look weak. The day is far from over; however, the big key is after the bell today with Alcoa. Everyone knows it's going to be terrible, but the question is how bad and in my view, analysts want to hear their guidance, to get an idea of how bad the economy is hitting them (and if there are signs of improvement).
I made some long purchases yesterday, that I plan to hold. I will keep my QID short position for a bit longer, until the pain is just too much. JASO seems like it has the potential to breakout, so keep an eye on it. TXCO was up 12% in afterhours, to $0.90, so this may have a little roll in it. Frankly, I would be cautious of the tiny stocks, given the way futures are getting hit but we shall see. Volume is really light, REALLY light. Many investors cashed out and are sitting on the sidelines for earnings (smart people). As for me, I am an idiot, and will play earnings. I still own all my calls on FDO and may take some of the table, ahead of earnings tomorrow AM, just to make sure I book some profits.
All in all, this seems like a great day to eat pancakes and relax. I will probably not add too much or sell too much either. I am kinda catch and hoping some buyers come and scare the shorts away with the low volume, creating massive short squeezes.
I made some long purchases yesterday, that I plan to hold. I will keep my QID short position for a bit longer, until the pain is just too much. JASO seems like it has the potential to breakout, so keep an eye on it. TXCO was up 12% in afterhours, to $0.90, so this may have a little roll in it. Frankly, I would be cautious of the tiny stocks, given the way futures are getting hit but we shall see. Volume is really light, REALLY light. Many investors cashed out and are sitting on the sidelines for earnings (smart people). As for me, I am an idiot, and will play earnings. I still own all my calls on FDO and may take some of the table, ahead of earnings tomorrow AM, just to make sure I book some profits.
All in all, this seems like a great day to eat pancakes and relax. I will probably not add too much or sell too much either. I am kinda catch and hoping some buyers come and scare the shorts away with the low volume, creating massive short squeezes.
Monday, April 6, 2009
SPIL
As you know, your boy RF flipped this for a day trade last week; however, I should have kept it.
Cramer devoted an entire segment for the name. If you are still in, look for a Cramer pump up tomorrow of about another 6%+.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30074726
Cramer devoted an entire segment for the name. If you are still in, look for a Cramer pump up tomorrow of about another 6%+.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30074726
Market Wrapup - April 6th
Interesting day, with low volume in the market. I'll be honest, this light volume and this short week, means we could rip higher tomorrow. As for JAVA, I got smoked but the puts protected me greatly. I am down about $200 but I am holding both the stock and the puts. The rumor is that IBM may go hostile for them at $9.45 a share. The other story is that CSCO may step in and buy JAVA. Very interesting. If you are not in, its compelling at these levels, as long as you buy put protection.
As for today's trades, I bought CROX. I mean, its spring time, people need CROX shoes right? lol. I'll take a shot at it, given this tape. I also shorted the QID. Tech is on fire and if you don't want to do that, you can buy the QLD (2x long the nasdaq Qs) and get similar action. I like it at these levels. The FDO calls are ripping, huge winning so far and I believe we will get more buyers into the close tomorrow. If we dip below $33, I might buy some of the equity as well, and sell puts against it. I will NOT take a position in JOSB. We might squeeze higher but I think the trade is over.
Earnings may suck but I will say that the market is cheap on a fundamental basis, so investors may not sell into earnings, instead buy into earnings. The only short exposure I have is the FAZ (only 50 shares, cut half today at breakeven). I am feeling good about this tape, rather bullish, so lets hope for a big day tomorrow. Be back in the AM.
As for today's trades, I bought CROX. I mean, its spring time, people need CROX shoes right? lol. I'll take a shot at it, given this tape. I also shorted the QID. Tech is on fire and if you don't want to do that, you can buy the QLD (2x long the nasdaq Qs) and get similar action. I like it at these levels. The FDO calls are ripping, huge winning so far and I believe we will get more buyers into the close tomorrow. If we dip below $33, I might buy some of the equity as well, and sell puts against it. I will NOT take a position in JOSB. We might squeeze higher but I think the trade is over.
Earnings may suck but I will say that the market is cheap on a fundamental basis, so investors may not sell into earnings, instead buy into earnings. The only short exposure I have is the FAZ (only 50 shares, cut half today at breakeven). I am feeling good about this tape, rather bullish, so lets hope for a big day tomorrow. Be back in the AM.
RF Buy CROX
Don't you dare laugh but I am getting long..
Bot 5000 at 1.60.
I've lost it, I know!! Lolll
Bot 5000 at 1.60.
I've lost it, I know!! Lolll
Market Update
I gotta quick minute, so I can talk. Basically, the sell off doesn't surprise me at all today, in fact a kinda suspected it (hence the hold of FAZ). Mike Mayo, a world known anlayst, downgraded all the major banks stating the bank pain is far from over. In addition, billionaire George Soros came out today and said the same thing and even "every major bank is involvent". Rather interesting....
Tomorrow will highlight alot, especially with Alcoa earnings after the bell. The big uptick rule is Wednesday, so I suspect a rally but it AA guides lower, we can see a terrible week!
My favorite play is FDO. I am long 4 calls on at the $31.50 strike (+FDODZ is up 85% today) and 6 at the $35 strike (+FDODG is up 150% today). Anotherwards, they are printing $$$. I still haven't sold any but will trim but I think this continues tomorrow. If they drill numbers at raise guidance, ratherly agressively, itll print $38-$40 this week.
An interesting thing I would like to bring up is the inflation vs. deflation trade. Many people say we are going to deflation and if that is true, the play is to short commodities and get long, long treasuries and the dollar. Inflation trades center around buying commodities. I personally think we will get both, deflation first. I mean if consumer spending makes up 70% of real GDP and jobs are falling at 700K a month, you would think people are saving $ and not spending (therefore forcing price decreases on goods). I think then we will enter a high inflation period, once jobs rebound and the economy turns. Gold is cheap here and you can see that big money is taking money out of gold and buying other metals. I am not a economist, so my thoughts probably don't mean much.
For stock I like: FDO, EMC, CIEN, PCU (or JJC).
Be careful on small cap stocks, if we rollover hard, they can get nailed. Scale and cash is the game plan, I cut stakes in NTGR, GNK, JASO, to boost my cash levels.
Tomorrow will highlight alot, especially with Alcoa earnings after the bell. The big uptick rule is Wednesday, so I suspect a rally but it AA guides lower, we can see a terrible week!
My favorite play is FDO. I am long 4 calls on at the $31.50 strike (+FDODZ is up 85% today) and 6 at the $35 strike (+FDODG is up 150% today). Anotherwards, they are printing $$$. I still haven't sold any but will trim but I think this continues tomorrow. If they drill numbers at raise guidance, ratherly agressively, itll print $38-$40 this week.
An interesting thing I would like to bring up is the inflation vs. deflation trade. Many people say we are going to deflation and if that is true, the play is to short commodities and get long, long treasuries and the dollar. Inflation trades center around buying commodities. I personally think we will get both, deflation first. I mean if consumer spending makes up 70% of real GDP and jobs are falling at 700K a month, you would think people are saving $ and not spending (therefore forcing price decreases on goods). I think then we will enter a high inflation period, once jobs rebound and the economy turns. Gold is cheap here and you can see that big money is taking money out of gold and buying other metals. I am not a economist, so my thoughts probably don't mean much.
For stock I like: FDO, EMC, CIEN, PCU (or JJC).
Be careful on small cap stocks, if we rollover hard, they can get nailed. Scale and cash is the game plan, I cut stakes in NTGR, GNK, JASO, to boost my cash levels.
RF Status
I will sell most of my trading inventory today to raise cash. My indicators show we are overbought, so its a chance of a shortterm top. I will hold FAZ and select longs. The IBKR downgrade was absurd and ill buy more below my cost.
If you got profits, I'd trim some just to be safe.
If you got profits, I'd trim some just to be safe.
TXCO
Gotta love that call folks. For legal reasons, I won't post buys or sell under a buck but u can guess my position :D
Update at 11a: If I was long, say at .57, I would take profits here at .73 for a nice 35% gain......
Update at 11a: If I was long, say at .57, I would take profits here at .73 for a nice 35% gain......
RF Buy FAZ
Bot 30 at 15.20. Mike Mayo downgraded 11 banks will sell half at be here soon
As for mkt outlook, stay small and I'm looking at feed, odp, cenx, txco (maybe)
As for mkt outlook, stay small and I'm looking at feed, odp, cenx, txco (maybe)
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Stocks Under $10 - FEED (3rd Edition)
Alright, I'm over the IBM/Sun Deal, so it's time to bring back my "A" game and show the market "what is up". I bring you ladies and gentleman, FEED. AgFeed Industries, Inc. (AgFeed) is engaged in the research and development, manufacture, marketing, distribution and sale of pre-mix fodder blended feed and feed additives primarily for use in China's domestic pork husbandry market. The stock just broke $2.50 resistance and is about to sky rocket (at least the voices in my head are telling me so). Their business is not as cyclical as people think and its based in China, probably the best economy going. The firm has about $0.40 in cash, representing a net cash per share level of 15%. In addition, I value the company to have about $4 per share of assets alone. This is ridciously undervalued and it based similar metrics, as of my purchases of CENX, SHWC, and TTWO. If we pull back, it will suffer but I will buy more. I will be buying tomorrow and on dips. As for a price target, I think this thing can print $4 on a low end and $7 on the high end. Below is a link on the last earnings report. Remember all of this is not for recommendations but for research ideas and discussion, please review and lets all discuss.
IBM - JAVA DEAL - TALKS POSSIBLY ENDING
I just can't believe it. Carl Icahn has been preaching about corporate governance for years now and I might learn why. The deal looks to be scraped, according to the WSJ, but the odd thing is that SunMicro is the one who walked away! I am in complete shock really but I dunno what is going to happen. I own $7 puts on JAVA, so this will help reduce the loss but according to "sources" from the report, IBM offered $9.40 a share and JAVA just walked away! Whatever happened to taking it to the shareholders and letting them vote?
Let's think about it.
Case 1: Yahoo and Microsoft: Microsoft offered $31 for Yahoo when Yahoo was trading at $19 and they turned it down! Microsoft then offered $34 and they turned them down again. Again, shareholders were completely ignored, got hurt, and now the stock is at $14.
Case 2: Take Two Interactive & Electronic Arts: EA offered $26 a share for the firm and again, the same type of BS and saying the general "this offer is grossly inadequate" and now TTWO is at $7.
The only point I can't understand is where is the shareholder in all of this? I mean TTWO has to quadruple to go back to the EA offer, why can't the acquirer go straight to the shareholder instead of dealing with management? I mean is the CEO the owner or the shareholders? I'll be completely honest, I thought the JAVA/IBM deal was IMMIENT. I bought some $7 puts for only about $70 worth just in case. I actually might break even. If the $7 puts go to $2 itll be around +$1400 in value, while the lose in equity will be anywhere between $1200-$1600. It's hard to guestimate, plus I don't know what the hell Sun's management is thinking. They must be trying to get $10+ or something, so I am pretty sure they are on the phone with Oracle, unless this thing is a total rumor. We will see...
As for the Stock Under $10...might be delayed...Wrestlemania is on tonight and Sun made me mad.
Let's think about it.
Case 1: Yahoo and Microsoft: Microsoft offered $31 for Yahoo when Yahoo was trading at $19 and they turned it down! Microsoft then offered $34 and they turned them down again. Again, shareholders were completely ignored, got hurt, and now the stock is at $14.
Case 2: Take Two Interactive & Electronic Arts: EA offered $26 a share for the firm and again, the same type of BS and saying the general "this offer is grossly inadequate" and now TTWO is at $7.
The only point I can't understand is where is the shareholder in all of this? I mean TTWO has to quadruple to go back to the EA offer, why can't the acquirer go straight to the shareholder instead of dealing with management? I mean is the CEO the owner or the shareholders? I'll be completely honest, I thought the JAVA/IBM deal was IMMIENT. I bought some $7 puts for only about $70 worth just in case. I actually might break even. If the $7 puts go to $2 itll be around +$1400 in value, while the lose in equity will be anywhere between $1200-$1600. It's hard to guestimate, plus I don't know what the hell Sun's management is thinking. They must be trying to get $10+ or something, so I am pretty sure they are on the phone with Oracle, unless this thing is a total rumor. We will see...
As for the Stock Under $10...might be delayed...Wrestlemania is on tonight and Sun made me mad.
Copper Firms
Here is a list of copper firms, I own PCU and have been trading TGB since the $1.15 range (can't remember but it should be archived).
FCX, PCU, WIRE, TGB, and SLT
The top 3 I believe are the best 3. FCX has had a huge run but it doesn't mean it can't go higher. I bought PCU because I think it will catch up to FCX. WIRE has been ripping and has a high short interest (hence a squeeze).
Other hot industries: Industrial Equipment Wholesale, Steel/Iron, (and Copper).
FCX, PCU, WIRE, TGB, and SLT
The top 3 I believe are the best 3. FCX has had a huge run but it doesn't mean it can't go higher. I bought PCU because I think it will catch up to FCX. WIRE has been ripping and has a high short interest (hence a squeeze).
Other hot industries: Industrial Equipment Wholesale, Steel/Iron, (and Copper).
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