One of the best commentators on CNBC, Dylan Ratigan, offically quit CNBC Friday. He was the host on Fast Money and was one of the best on the network. But there is something very interesting going on at CNBC. GE owns NBC Universal and every network has a liberal twist but CNBC. Since the Rick Santilli "tea party" movement, MSNBC has been blasting Santilli and CNBC! I mean what is going on, they are owned by the same COMPANY! A even stranger thing was that Rick Santilli disappeared for a week, apologized, and now CNBC hires Howard Dean as a commentator. This isn't a political blog but what in the world is going on with the MSNBC/CNBC feud? CNBC has more of a republican, conservative base but will that change? Or will Fox Business take off? Fox Business took Liz Claman and CNBC'S top trader Eric Bolling, will Dylan be next?
Interesting...
Saturday, March 28, 2009
"The Housing Bottom"
We had some decent real estate numbers this week and I have heard from 50 commentators that the housing "bottom" is in and to go buy homebuilders. As always, I don't believe them, but for here is a look residential homebuilders and a rank of them based on balance sheet measures. A different play on this is the XHB. This etf is a "homebuilders" etf; however, has holdings on housing related plays, like Lowes, Home Depot, Bed Bath & Beyond, as well as direct homebuilders. Inventory write-offs and quarterly losses can damage cash balances even further, so it is important to anlayze inventory valuations, as well as key market real estate locations, that the firm builds in. Some markets can still drop more, so if you take a big stake, I would look at this information. In addition, I would look at short interest and run ups (note for recent short interest, a broker can give you exact numbers. I get some data from yahoo or your brokerage website, but its given to the website at the beginning of the month, most of the time)
Above is a ranker on the homebuilders. The ones highlighted in red are the only homebuilders with positive cash per share ratios. These are ranked by a balance sheet/fundamental measures that I use, so the best are at the top. I would also be a little "weiry" on the BZH calculations because I reviewed their numbers and it just didn't look right. So, I might but that at the very bottom; however, it has went from $0.30 to $1.20ish so not a bad run up. Balance sheets are KEY to this trade because like Commercial Real Estate REITS, there are a lot of "bad" and "good" names and homework is vital. Inventory values are not always certain. In addition, I would look out for firms that build high dollar homes and I would be very cautious. The reason for this is that JUMBO loans are very costly (7% interest) and are also difficult to obtain. Therefore, I would be skeptical of builders, specializing in building homes in the JUMBO range. I highlighted in blue the best speculative play out of the bunch. I know our commentator RT bought some HOV this week, so keep it on the radar as it might play out as the lottery ticket winner (lotto ticket is wall street talk for a cheap stock). Jim Cramer is pumping KB Homes (up 6% friday), as "best of breed" but its number 3 on my list. SKY is a microcap, so I would do more homework on it, but it has very nice balance sheet but EPS is the key watcher.
All in all, I would use this as a guide and research earnings prospects. The onces in red have positive cash per share ratios but if EPS is dreaded, that can change. I am long none now and will watch a few on my radar. Honestly, I like the XHB at $11, through calls or buying it out right, to reduce my risk and gain exposure to some of the housing retail.
Friday, March 27, 2009
Big Firms with Amazing Balance Sheets
Here is a list of firms with great balance sheets and market cap $1B+, enjoy and be back tomorrow with some stuff!
FWLT, UNH, HUM, HNT, GLG, SLT, PC, MDR, AAPL, FLR, KYO, DELL, MGLN, WBMD, KBR
FWLT, UNH, HUM, HNT, GLG, SLT, PC, MDR, AAPL, FLR, KYO, DELL, MGLN, WBMD, KBR
Market Wrapup - March 27th
Great week but a terrible Friday with a big selloff led by the financials. I posted around 3pm that FAZ will predict the rally and it rallied, therefore, no rally. The reason for this was the news from Washington. Big bank executives met with Obama today and many said that March would NOT be as good as Jan/Feb. This generated alot of profit taking in financials. The one thing I don't like about the market is that it is still rather dependant on financials, particularly the FAS. I personally know 3 traders (that I would consider pros) that bought the FAZ this afternoon; however, I did not participate. One of them also bought SRS. I personally rather have a massive cash position, than be short and get caught.
As for the portfolio, I sold out of my URE and TSO today for a combined breakeven, give or take $10. I bought some MAC puts today as well because the price action in that stock is getting wild. I bought Aprils puts, 4 at the $5 strike and 4 at the $2.50 strike (note: the only volume today in the April $2.50 puts was me at 9:30a, kinda funny. I wonder if I bought 100 if it would've moved the stock down harder haha). One of the classic ways hedge funds move stock prices is through the options market, so often you need to determine if its "noise" or a "signal". For example, if a hedge fund is long $50 million worth of HUM at $24 and want to blow out of it, they can manipulated the options market (rather cheaply) to cause buzz, make the stock price, and dump the stock. Rumors is another way. If you remember the Bear Stearns story, two weeks before bankruptcy, there was a NY Times article on how Warren Buffett took at 10% stake in the firm. I don't know this for a fact but I would be willing to bet that a fund manager was long tons of Bear Stearns and leaked it, to get a rip, and sell his position.
As for longs, I really like NTGR and IBKR. Both held up very strong today, so I didn't build or up my stake. I bought a microcap, WetSeal (WTSLA). Frankly, I make fun of the stock but I read the guidance report and they beat by $.02. The firm has a good balance sheet and has about $1.30 in cash per share. In addition, it has about 8% short interest. Frankly, I am hoping for a surge, then I am pumping it. I also bought GNK. Shippers were ripping today, just look at DRYS. The Baltic Dry Index is better than it has been in the past and the firm has does alot to conserve cash flow, by suspending their dividend. We will see how it goes but I would suspect a $2 downside with a $6 upside.
I will talk more about the market over the weekend, take it easy, and another week in the books.
As for the portfolio, I sold out of my URE and TSO today for a combined breakeven, give or take $10. I bought some MAC puts today as well because the price action in that stock is getting wild. I bought Aprils puts, 4 at the $5 strike and 4 at the $2.50 strike (note: the only volume today in the April $2.50 puts was me at 9:30a, kinda funny. I wonder if I bought 100 if it would've moved the stock down harder haha). One of the classic ways hedge funds move stock prices is through the options market, so often you need to determine if its "noise" or a "signal". For example, if a hedge fund is long $50 million worth of HUM at $24 and want to blow out of it, they can manipulated the options market (rather cheaply) to cause buzz, make the stock price, and dump the stock. Rumors is another way. If you remember the Bear Stearns story, two weeks before bankruptcy, there was a NY Times article on how Warren Buffett took at 10% stake in the firm. I don't know this for a fact but I would be willing to bet that a fund manager was long tons of Bear Stearns and leaked it, to get a rip, and sell his position.
As for longs, I really like NTGR and IBKR. Both held up very strong today, so I didn't build or up my stake. I bought a microcap, WetSeal (WTSLA). Frankly, I make fun of the stock but I read the guidance report and they beat by $.02. The firm has a good balance sheet and has about $1.30 in cash per share. In addition, it has about 8% short interest. Frankly, I am hoping for a surge, then I am pumping it. I also bought GNK. Shippers were ripping today, just look at DRYS. The Baltic Dry Index is better than it has been in the past and the firm has does alot to conserve cash flow, by suspending their dividend. We will see how it goes but I would suspect a $2 downside with a $6 upside.
I will talk more about the market over the weekend, take it easy, and another week in the books.
FAZ determines late day rally
Its at 19.60 at we are at 818 on sp if FAZ drops we rally. That simple
Building long inventory
IBKR and NTGR are some nice long term plays.
Bought GNK, less risk than DRYS and see 5 pts of upside.
Use market flucuations to your advantage. On long side play good balance sheets, short side look at MAC and FR.
Bought GNK, less risk than DRYS and see 5 pts of upside.
Use market flucuations to your advantage. On long side play good balance sheets, short side look at MAC and FR.
How My Day Is Going
No lie people I had an order to buy 1000 shares of JASO this am at $3.40 and canceled it. Now its at $4.00. Classic "I did it again" moment.
Instead I'm stuck with a teen girl retailer, time to go to lunch.
Instead I'm stuck with a teen girl retailer, time to go to lunch.
RF Buy WTSLA
Came up on my radar. Bought 300 at 3.47
Update at 1048a don't like price action broke 10 day ma quant sold so I may kick
I want microcaps if we reverse
Update at 1048a don't like price action broke 10 day ma quant sold so I may kick
I want microcaps if we reverse
Market Outlook - March 27
Futures seem to be significantly lower today, with the S&P projected to open around 820, from the 832 close yesterday. From a technical perspective, we are seeing high volume on up days and more institutional buying, which is good. In addition, many fund managers will do some "window dressing" since Q1 ends Tuesday. Basically, fund managers will dump some dogs and buy outperforming stocks to show their investors that they have good stocks, like AAPL. That could create a rally itself. Alot of fund managers really believe this is the bottom, so they are buying the dips agressively.
So the two options are: 1) buy the dips or 2) raise some cash. Note, if you want to get short, I would be careful, but you can as a hedge and get short individual names.
Frankly, I will not sell my TTWO or NTGR but anything else may be sold or I may make more purchases because I have a lot of cash. As for picks, I would stick to firms with great balance sheets: NTGR, FWLT, DELL, UNH, HUM, LOGI, AAPL, or spec like VCLK. My favorite long for a value perspective is NTGR because it has nearly $5.78 of cash per share, according to my calculations, and is selling like at $12. I would just piece in small, over time.
I got some microcaps that sell under $5 but if we pull back these could fall hard; however, if we takeoff again these should charge up! I also threw in a few under $10 that I like.
SD, FCS, JASO, SOLF, TGB, TQNT, SIMG, SAY, RT, NBG, CPE, ARTG, AOB.
FCS is a semi and those have been ripping! SOLF and JASO are solar and those have been ripping too! These things can pop folks, so take a look at em and buy what you think. My gut is telling me to buy this dip here but we shall see.
So the two options are: 1) buy the dips or 2) raise some cash. Note, if you want to get short, I would be careful, but you can as a hedge and get short individual names.
Frankly, I will not sell my TTWO or NTGR but anything else may be sold or I may make more purchases because I have a lot of cash. As for picks, I would stick to firms with great balance sheets: NTGR, FWLT, DELL, UNH, HUM, LOGI, AAPL, or spec like VCLK. My favorite long for a value perspective is NTGR because it has nearly $5.78 of cash per share, according to my calculations, and is selling like at $12. I would just piece in small, over time.
I got some microcaps that sell under $5 but if we pull back these could fall hard; however, if we takeoff again these should charge up! I also threw in a few under $10 that I like.
SD, FCS, JASO, SOLF, TGB, TQNT, SIMG, SAY, RT, NBG, CPE, ARTG, AOB.
FCS is a semi and those have been ripping! SOLF and JASO are solar and those have been ripping too! These things can pop folks, so take a look at em and buy what you think. My gut is telling me to buy this dip here but we shall see.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
RF Weekly Trade Log
This is my trade log for this week. Italizied trades are closed positions and all were made during this week, so all returns are 4 day returns, unless otherwise noted. YTD my portfolio is up 142% (includes options proceeds and dividends); however, don't want to discuss anymore because I don't want to jinx myself. I will provide more ideas in the morning but as for the market, my indicators still show we are NOT overbought.
TTWO CALLS +63.64% (bought last friday)
DIA CALLS +63.16%
TTWO +35.16% (from purchase return - still have half)
JTX (Day Trade) +17.95% (still have 100)
COH + 10.38%
NTGR +8.11%
RBY + 8.05%
CAL +7.23%
TSO + 6.54%
URE +6.27%
DTO + 5.93%
AKAM + 5.09%
MAC +4.65%
TZA +3.84%
JNPR + 2.50%
Short PACW -2.57%
ERY -8.82%
TTWO CALLS +63.64% (bought last friday)
DIA CALLS +63.16%
TTWO +35.16% (from purchase return - still have half)
JTX (Day Trade) +17.95% (still have 100)
COH + 10.38%
NTGR +8.11%
RBY + 8.05%
CAL +7.23%
TSO + 6.54%
URE +6.27%
DTO + 5.93%
AKAM + 5.09%
MAC +4.65%
TZA +3.84%
JNPR + 2.50%
Short PACW -2.57%
ERY -8.82%
Market Wrapup - March 26th
Great day on the street today folks and the technicals look very strong here! We closed above resistance, so higher we should go. Some people believe 900 is possible on the charts but I feel we got another 20-45 points, 900 may be pushing it a little.
I made numerous trades today, starting with the JTX buy. I bought it at $3.90 and its still rolling in after hours at $4.70. I sold my shorts for a loss today but made it back with a strong trade on the TTWO $10 April calls. I caught the technical breakout in AKAM as well and sold the entire position but am holding the TSO for a little longer. Towards the end of the day, I moved into strong offense, by going long Commercial Real Estate, for a short squeeze play. I connected on the MAC trade, took that off, and I am still holding URE. Commercial Real Estate is doomed but it is also heavily shorted, so squeezes are possible with this strong technical tape but play small if you choose. REITs like FR and MAC are toast in the long-term, so you know I am long the June $2.50 puts, which I bought at $0.25; however, if we catch a strong rally, I am tempted to buy the MAC April $2.50 puts (+MACPZ) for a risky trade, for like $0.05 or $0.10. I was short the stock early in January, covered in February, and now I can't get any shares to short. Its heavily shorted for the right reasons, so buyer beware. Also, talking options, if you got in on the DIA March $80 Calls, congrats on the 100%+ gain (I wish I still had mine).
Lastly, I will comment on the chart above. Many mutual funds are buying this rally, which is killing many short sellers. The chart above is the FAS (3x Long Financials). If you believe in charting leveraged ETF's (frankly not my cup of tea but worth looking at) there is a bullish trend highlighted in teal, called the inverted head and shoulders. If this holds, financials will run even harder than they have, so don't be surprised if they run higher and I wouldn't be short financials here. As for tech, I would keep an eye on Intel since it just broke $15 resistance (this is bullish) and RIMM because Goldman Sachs came out with a note today to buy this stock before earnings (rather rare to see that). I'm gone, have a good night!
RF Pick Update
I don't know if you check out the market outlook in the AM, but the picks for today are on fire. 3 of them from today up 40%+ in a day. Enjoy!
S&P Update
We broke 825, still resistance but we need to break out pass 830. If so, we could have a strong rally, that could lead to 25-50 point rally on the S&P.
RF Buy JTX
Bought 400 at $4 for a quick trade.
Update 945a: sold at breakeven, will buy back in a few
Boughg back at 3.90 around 10ish
Update 945a: sold at breakeven, will buy back in a few
Boughg back at 3.90 around 10ish
Market Outlook - March 26th
Futures continue to look strong here but the big test is coming at 8:30 with revised 4th GDP numbers and Jobless Claims. As you know, I am long and short but expect to get crushed on the shorts, unless the numbers are just terrible. As long as we stay above the 50 day MA and close above support, this market is a buy. I figured we tried to break 825 three times and failed then we retraced to 811 (where I got short) and we fell all the way to 792. I thought there was no way we could do close above support, but sure enough, we did.
Here are some picks that have been CRUSHED YTD and have a chance to rebound if we continue to rally, for some nice upside!
JTX, LHCG, JASO, PNX, MWA, CRZO, and TWB.
Other firms that could rip: KMX, AEO, WNR, and GLW.
Here are some picks that have been CRUSHED YTD and have a chance to rebound if we continue to rally, for some nice upside!
JTX, LHCG, JASO, PNX, MWA, CRZO, and TWB.
Other firms that could rip: KMX, AEO, WNR, and GLW.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Market Wrapup - March 25
I have had many crazy trading days but today may take the cake. I sold some longs earlier this morning (COH) and bought AKAM for a technical breakout and RBY for a spec play on a new gold find. I studied the charts inside in and out and today I went took a shot and went short around 1:15p when the S&P was 811, by buying TZA. It began to roar, so I shorted PACW and bought more ERY, to watch the S&P at 792. I was pumped, money printing everywhere, and then 3p came. At the end of the day, I watched TZA go from 52 to 57, then I sold my 40 shares at 3:47ish for 53ish, for a $20 profit. I kept my ERY and PACW short but the PACW is scarying me. I did the homework and know the bear story; however, if we take off, this thing can roar, so I got a tight leash on this. I don't like oil here, so I will hold my ERY has a short hedge.
I sold half of my TTWO because the price performance was pathetic. I like AKAM but it didn't close above the 200 day MA, so a breakout is in question. The jobs number comes out tomorrow, so it should be interesting.
As for my portfolio, I built some short exposure and have a 70% cash position, 20% long exposure, 10% short exposure. As for top picks, I would stick with firm's with great balance sheets, particularly DELL, HUM, UNH, NTGR, etc. As for the market, we are still in a buy zone, as long as the S&P doesn't close below 805.
I sold half of my TTWO because the price performance was pathetic. I like AKAM but it didn't close above the 200 day MA, so a breakout is in question. The jobs number comes out tomorrow, so it should be interesting.
As for my portfolio, I built some short exposure and have a 70% cash position, 20% long exposure, 10% short exposure. As for top picks, I would stick with firm's with great balance sheets, particularly DELL, HUM, UNH, NTGR, etc. As for the market, we are still in a buy zone, as long as the S&P doesn't close below 805.
RF Sell TTWO
Sold half stake here guys, I bought it in lows 6s and price action is terrible! Fun 30% gain 465 profit
S&P Update
We are in a tight zone right here. We ran and touch 825 twice on the S&P but did not break through. If we can retest 825, we can break and the next resistance level is 850. We are 814 now and are fading away. The support level is 805, so I will continue to watch the S&P.
As for the dow we are in a "short" zone dating back from the October low at 7999. Shorts can enter here and use that as a stop point, but the S&P seems to be the key indicator. Both times when the S&P was at 825, we hit our highs, and pulled back.
This is a very tough market to trade, so I think the best idea is to play small and it might be smart to build tiny short positions. On the downside, if we break 805 on the S&P, we can go to 750 or 777.
Best ultrashorts are: SRS and TZA
UPDATE: Cut half of my AKAM for a $50 loss
As for the dow we are in a "short" zone dating back from the October low at 7999. Shorts can enter here and use that as a stop point, but the S&P seems to be the key indicator. Both times when the S&P was at 825, we hit our highs, and pulled back.
This is a very tough market to trade, so I think the best idea is to play small and it might be smart to build tiny short positions. On the downside, if we break 805 on the S&P, we can go to 750 or 777.
Best ultrashorts are: SRS and TZA
UPDATE: Cut half of my AKAM for a $50 loss
Market Update
We need to break through 825 on s&p for the fun to begin. I don't believe in triple tops, so I am hoping for another push at 825 and chances are we take off, watch closely
RF Sell DIA Mar 80 calls
Sold half for 53% gain, $251 profit
Update II at 10:10a. Sold rest at .63 cents for 58% gain, for $ 282 profit
Update II at 10:10a. Sold rest at .63 cents for 58% gain, for $ 282 profit
Market Outlook and DRYS Earnings
DRYS earnings were pretty bad. I am glad I sold the common a week ago but the options will probably get beat pretty good. I bought 5 contracts so if they go worthless, I will lose $125 but I will try to sell them to today. Some hedge funds have losted some serious money on this trade because over 19,000 calls were traded at various April strikes, betting on a big number. If you got in at $4, you should be fine. Below is the earnings recap.
As for the market, futures indicate we are right at support on the S&P. I will continue to use 805 as my support level, however, if we break 785 looks like the next support level. JP Morgan cut their estimates on the S&P this morning, which may cause some sell; however, I believe they trimmed 09 estimates by like $4 or $5 dollars, which isn't too bad. As for the portfolio, I am long TTWO, NTGR, COH, SHORT WRI, and have various options plays.
DRYS Earnings Recap:
4:17AM DryShips misses by $0.23, beats on revs (DRYS) 5.52 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.43 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.23 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.66; revenues fell 6.6% year/year to $217.9 mln vs the $209.6 mln consensus. For Q408, Net Voyage Revenues (Voyage Revenues less Voyage Expenses) amounted to $117.1 mln as compared to $223.5 mln for the quarter ended December 31, 2007. For Q408, revenues from drilling contracts following the acquisition of Ocean Rig amounted to $87.5 mln. Operating Loss from both segments was $794.3 mln for Q408, as compared to Operating Income of $211.9 mln for the quarter ended December 31, 2007. Total Net Loss, from both segments, for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 was $1.02 bln or $18.42 loss per share as compared to the Net Income of $194.4 mln or $5.35/share for the quarter ended December 31, 2007. The co has previously reported a definitive and a preliminary agreement with certain lenders relating to the waiver of breaches of loan covenants. DRYS remains in discussions with its other lenders concerning current breaches of loan covenants. Pending the outcome of such discussions, the co has reclassified approx $1.8 bln in debt as short-term. Co expects to incur loss of approx $116.4 mln in Q109 associated with disposal of three Capesize newbuildings.
As for the market, futures indicate we are right at support on the S&P. I will continue to use 805 as my support level, however, if we break 785 looks like the next support level. JP Morgan cut their estimates on the S&P this morning, which may cause some sell; however, I believe they trimmed 09 estimates by like $4 or $5 dollars, which isn't too bad. As for the portfolio, I am long TTWO, NTGR, COH, SHORT WRI, and have various options plays.
DRYS Earnings Recap:
4:17AM DryShips misses by $0.23, beats on revs (DRYS) 5.52 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.43 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.23 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.66; revenues fell 6.6% year/year to $217.9 mln vs the $209.6 mln consensus. For Q408, Net Voyage Revenues (Voyage Revenues less Voyage Expenses) amounted to $117.1 mln as compared to $223.5 mln for the quarter ended December 31, 2007. For Q408, revenues from drilling contracts following the acquisition of Ocean Rig amounted to $87.5 mln. Operating Loss from both segments was $794.3 mln for Q408, as compared to Operating Income of $211.9 mln for the quarter ended December 31, 2007. Total Net Loss, from both segments, for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 was $1.02 bln or $18.42 loss per share as compared to the Net Income of $194.4 mln or $5.35/share for the quarter ended December 31, 2007. The co has previously reported a definitive and a preliminary agreement with certain lenders relating to the waiver of breaches of loan covenants. DRYS remains in discussions with its other lenders concerning current breaches of loan covenants. Pending the outcome of such discussions, the co has reclassified approx $1.8 bln in debt as short-term. Co expects to incur loss of approx $116.4 mln in Q109 associated with disposal of three Capesize newbuildings.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Financials
If you have been following the blog, you know I am rather apathetic about the sector. We have had a huge run up; however, I wouldn't be surprised to see them continue to go up. If there is one financial I had to be long, I guess it would be JPM, because I am betting on Jamie Dimon. One thing that has not been talked about is consolidation among financial institutions. During past financial struggles and bubbles, many firms have mergered or consolidated; however, it seems as if the government is trying to forestall that, by providing funds. Many argue that the plan is trying to create a quick fix for the banking sector, while leaving a long-term risk to the taxpayer and economy. This topic very debatable but being selective is my key to the financials. Below is a list of financials that are in trouble, of course in my view, due to high debt levels.
COF
RWT
SLG
FHN
ARE
JAH
HCP
COF
RWT
SLG
FHN
ARE
JAH
HCP
Market Wrapup - March 24th
Rather boring trading today, as the financials and market crashed in the last hours. I sold my CAL, JNPR, and DTO today, while keeping COH, TTWO, and NTGR. I will buy more NTGR on dips. NTGR and TTWO will be long-term holdings for me, the rest trades. I also bought April $9 calls on DRYS, for an earnings play. The call option activity sent a huge signal, so we will see. Earnings should be released by 8pm. As for long side buying opportunties, AKAM, BIDU, GOOG, and AMZN are all on my watchlist. AGN takeover rumors are flying everywhere. I have selected shorts on my list, particularly COF, WRI, FR, MAC, and SLG.
We closed right above support, so we are at another pivtol area. If we dip below 805, we have a good chance dropping another 30 points on the S&P. With Obama speaking tonight, who knows what will happen; however, my indicators still show we are NOT overbought.
I had a few e-mails regarding my buy posts and entry points. Basically, what I do is make a purchase, then post it at the price at what I bought it at. Each stock is personally made by me, no one else, and may be purchased for technical reasons, momentum swings, etc. I try to make the post as live as possible, normally within 4 or 5 minutes, unless otherwise noted. I study the downside of the stock, more than I do the upside, so I often sell earlier than expected but my goal is not to lose money and hopefully make some.
I'll be back later, if there is any stock, sector, or idea (ex. like stocks with high short interest in tech), just let me know by leaving a comment or send me an e-mail.
RF
We closed right above support, so we are at another pivtol area. If we dip below 805, we have a good chance dropping another 30 points on the S&P. With Obama speaking tonight, who knows what will happen; however, my indicators still show we are NOT overbought.
I had a few e-mails regarding my buy posts and entry points. Basically, what I do is make a purchase, then post it at the price at what I bought it at. Each stock is personally made by me, no one else, and may be purchased for technical reasons, momentum swings, etc. I try to make the post as live as possible, normally within 4 or 5 minutes, unless otherwise noted. I study the downside of the stock, more than I do the upside, so I often sell earlier than expected but my goal is not to lose money and hopefully make some.
I'll be back later, if there is any stock, sector, or idea (ex. like stocks with high short interest in tech), just let me know by leaving a comment or send me an e-mail.
RF
DRYS Earnings After Hours
Got some emails on this, I got long in high 3s and dumped but if they hit the numbers, it will soar!
RF Sell JNPR and DTO
Sold entire stakes for combined profit of $90.
See if we can break 825 on sp
Update II: We really need tech for another big rally. Until we get a reversal in tech, we can't sprint in the green, in my view. I sold my JNPR and covered my crude oil short by selling DTO. As for the option play on DIA, I liked it for a rally play but I might not get my wish. On any options plays, I am staying small, with a 5 to 10 contract limit on at the money and no more than 40 contracts on out of money (depends on premium though). As for the DIA contracts; if we go down hard they'll be tough to sell, so it could be a total loss.
Update II: Anyone long AMZN here or have a view?
See if we can break 825 on sp
Update II: We really need tech for another big rally. Until we get a reversal in tech, we can't sprint in the green, in my view. I sold my JNPR and covered my crude oil short by selling DTO. As for the option play on DIA, I liked it for a rally play but I might not get my wish. On any options plays, I am staying small, with a 5 to 10 contract limit on at the money and no more than 40 contracts on out of money (depends on premium though). As for the DIA contracts; if we go down hard they'll be tough to sell, so it could be a total loss.
Update II: Anyone long AMZN here or have a view?
RF Buys DIA calls
Bought March $80 calls at .38 cents. They expire monday but I think there is a chance we see the Dow at 8000 by Monday. Very risky.
Market Begins to Pause
Right now it looks as if we are at a pausing stage. We are above support at 805 but profit taking is occuring. As for trading, its very difficult. In my view , you can get long but keep tight stops if we drift to 805 on the S&P. If you want to short,I'd use small positions here. Ill continue to watch the S&P as my trading"guide".
CNBC Alert - Trade 247 Blog
Trade 247 surpasses 1500 page views since its start on March 7th. Thanks!
RF Buy DTO
Bought 40 in premarket at $135. Have $134 stop, this will be a day trade
Update: short crude seems to be working, profit takin going into inventories tomorrow. See if we hold
Update: short crude seems to be working, profit takin going into inventories tomorrow. See if we hold
Market Outlook - March 24th
Futures are indicating a decline in the S&P, right now it would open at 808, which is about 16 points lower from yesterday. As mentioned yesterday, my indicators show that the market is NOT overbought, so I will keep an eye on the 805 support. I will use this as a guide to determine my actions. If we get a nice pullback and begin to rally, there is a list of good short-squeeze opportunities:
UA - (22.50% of float short)
FSYS - (42% of float short)
PFCB - (30.70% of float short)
MATK - (28.4% of float short)
VPRT - (29.8% of float short)
I am still long all my positions and will post accordingly. Right now I have about a 68% cash position and the other 32% includes all my equity and options holdings. My key advice is to watch the S&P levels, especially 805 for support. If we break, we could sell off harder.
UA - (22.50% of float short)
FSYS - (42% of float short)
PFCB - (30.70% of float short)
MATK - (28.4% of float short)
VPRT - (29.8% of float short)
I am still long all my positions and will post accordingly. Right now I have about a 68% cash position and the other 32% includes all my equity and options holdings. My key advice is to watch the S&P levels, especially 805 for support. If we break, we could sell off harder.
Monday, March 23, 2009
Market Wrapup - March 23rd
Tiny Tim came through today with a monster plan, leading the the S&P up 7.07%. The material in the plan was rather vague, not really giving interest rates for the purchasing of the toxic assets; however, from I am gathering, the funds buying the debt can lever up 6:1 and make bids for the toxic assets. The assets are advertised as "cheap" but it really depends on the bids for the particular assets, to see if the assets are necessarily cheap. Bond players, like PIMCO and private equity guys like, BX, like this leverage and funding, so they will be big participants in the plan.
As for the market, I believe we are going higher, maybe not tomorrow but in the next month, I believe we have a good chance of printing 900 on the S&P. Am a bullish? Not really but technicals are strong and it's a possible, but keep in mind 740 is strong support and bears may try to test it. 805 is current support and is a nice stop if you want to play this rally. Wall street wants clarity and today they got a piece and the market erupted. Obama has a public address Tuesday, if he continues to provide more clarity, we could move higher from these levels by the end of the week. Just stay selective and if you are trying to get short, piece in over time into vulnerable areas, like Commercial Real Estate.
As for my holdings, I bought some NTGR, CAL, JNPR, and COH. My strategy remains the same: selective and balance sheet friendly. I like NTGR because its a nice tech play with a beautiful balance sheet. It carries $5.75ish in cash per share and is in a strong tech sector. Juniper is another strong tech, with a solid balance. The net cash per share ratio relative to current stock price is around 25% so I like it. COH is a more speculative play but has a great balance sheet, high margins, growth areas overseas, and is not terribly expensive, compared to Louis Vinton, etc. Lastly is my favorite spec is CAL. Stifel Nicholas downgraded the sector, trying to take me out, but we rallied toward the end. These firms have fair balance sheets but the EPS isn't great. However, with crude at low levels, it is possible that they can make a profit.
As for TTWO, my feelings remain the same. Even at these levels the stock is very cheap, with about $2.50 of cash per share, relative to a stock price of $8.60. However, 2009 will not be a great year for the firm and the big bet is 2010. This year they will probably have a loss or I am hoping they breakeven. Next year, analyst estimates project a $125 million net income, however, $128 of that coming in 4Q10 (meaning a loss for the first 3 quarters of 2010). This year, I believe all the quarters have estimates that represent negative EPS. I am holding the name for the long-term, not necessarily a trade, unless I change my mind (I do that often). It's been up 35% since I've been in but I still think its a good play.
Lastly, I am tempted to short crude here, going into some of the numbers this week. I think $55 is a little toppy here (for short term); however, if you know crude, it undersshoots on the downside and overshoots on the upside. I will study it a little more and post if I make the trade.
Update I: A few points on AAPL for some. Ibelieve the stock looks really good here, despite being above $100, but with the few iphone platforms and netbooks, the stock could print higher, like $115-$125, if this market continues to move.
Update II: A few questions regarding the market and stock ownership. From my calculations and measures, this market is NOT overbought. I look at some calculated hybrids that take in effect price performance, volume, accumulation/dist, fundamentals, (etc) and the market triggers are not a "buy". When it becomes a "buy", it shows me that the market is overbought, and I will sell. I will post when this comes up; however, if I forced to predict a trading pattern, I would look at these scenarios:
1) go straight hard again tomorrow and go straight to 850. I would look at this indicator to determine profit taking.
2) have a dip, look at the indicator (but it shouldn't go to buy) then I would buy the dip, and use the 805 on the S&P as a stop loss range
3) the market may trade sideways, so I would have to take another look.
As for the market, I believe we are going higher, maybe not tomorrow but in the next month, I believe we have a good chance of printing 900 on the S&P. Am a bullish? Not really but technicals are strong and it's a possible, but keep in mind 740 is strong support and bears may try to test it. 805 is current support and is a nice stop if you want to play this rally. Wall street wants clarity and today they got a piece and the market erupted. Obama has a public address Tuesday, if he continues to provide more clarity, we could move higher from these levels by the end of the week. Just stay selective and if you are trying to get short, piece in over time into vulnerable areas, like Commercial Real Estate.
As for my holdings, I bought some NTGR, CAL, JNPR, and COH. My strategy remains the same: selective and balance sheet friendly. I like NTGR because its a nice tech play with a beautiful balance sheet. It carries $5.75ish in cash per share and is in a strong tech sector. Juniper is another strong tech, with a solid balance. The net cash per share ratio relative to current stock price is around 25% so I like it. COH is a more speculative play but has a great balance sheet, high margins, growth areas overseas, and is not terribly expensive, compared to Louis Vinton, etc. Lastly is my favorite spec is CAL. Stifel Nicholas downgraded the sector, trying to take me out, but we rallied toward the end. These firms have fair balance sheets but the EPS isn't great. However, with crude at low levels, it is possible that they can make a profit.
As for TTWO, my feelings remain the same. Even at these levels the stock is very cheap, with about $2.50 of cash per share, relative to a stock price of $8.60. However, 2009 will not be a great year for the firm and the big bet is 2010. This year they will probably have a loss or I am hoping they breakeven. Next year, analyst estimates project a $125 million net income, however, $128 of that coming in 4Q10 (meaning a loss for the first 3 quarters of 2010). This year, I believe all the quarters have estimates that represent negative EPS. I am holding the name for the long-term, not necessarily a trade, unless I change my mind (I do that often). It's been up 35% since I've been in but I still think its a good play.
Lastly, I am tempted to short crude here, going into some of the numbers this week. I think $55 is a little toppy here (for short term); however, if you know crude, it undersshoots on the downside and overshoots on the upside. I will study it a little more and post if I make the trade.
Update I: A few points on AAPL for some. Ibelieve the stock looks really good here, despite being above $100, but with the few iphone platforms and netbooks, the stock could print higher, like $115-$125, if this market continues to move.
Update II: A few questions regarding the market and stock ownership. From my calculations and measures, this market is NOT overbought. I look at some calculated hybrids that take in effect price performance, volume, accumulation/dist, fundamentals, (etc) and the market triggers are not a "buy". When it becomes a "buy", it shows me that the market is overbought, and I will sell. I will post when this comes up; however, if I forced to predict a trading pattern, I would look at these scenarios:
1) go straight hard again tomorrow and go straight to 850. I would look at this indicator to determine profit taking.
2) have a dip, look at the indicator (but it shouldn't go to buy) then I would buy the dip, and use the 805 on the S&P as a stop loss range
3) the market may trade sideways, so I would have to take another look.
Go Market Go
With a week to go in Q1 watch money flow in. Be back at 5 to discuss the day. Celebrate!
RF Buy NTGR
Bought 200 before I went to lunch but forgot to post, around $11.20ish. Firm has loads of cash, 52% of stock price is cash! Get ur cash on!
The Timmy Tim Rally
Boy are we ripping today! Geithner's plan is causing the bulls to go crazy as financials soar. I rather not chase them here but the financials have room to move higher.
As for nice value tech plays, I like NTGR and VCLK. I will look to get long on a pull back.I also may build deeper in my short on WRI or short debt buried firms like COF.
I will sit back and keep an eye on watchlist, staytuned bout to post a buy
As for nice value tech plays, I like NTGR and VCLK. I will look to get long on a pull back.I also may build deeper in my short on WRI or short debt buried firms like COF.
I will sit back and keep an eye on watchlist, staytuned bout to post a buy
Market Outlook - March 23rd
This week will be very interesting, especially today when the new toxic asset plan may be released. The key market movers are no longer in New York but in Washington. I heard that many firms have CSPAN on their TV, next Bloomberg and CNBC, so that speaks a loud message. My strategy remains the same: study my charts, get long firms with rich balance sheets, and short selective commercial real estate names. In addition, I will expand and look for an additional short exposure in leveraged financial companies, related to the consumer and mortgages.
As for the market in general, it is anyone’s guess, but futures as of 4:45 am were up about 20 pts on the S&P. The clip between Doug Kass and Gary Shilling says a lot. Kass and Shilling are two of the most negative people in the market, both calling this recession; however, Kass is extremely bullish, seeing 1100 on the S&P by summer. These two guys are rarely wrong, so it’s very weird to see them disagree. As for my take, there are a very more things I’d like to see before I change my bearish views. One is more clarity on how Geithner’s plan will stabilize the financial system. Another thing I want to see is a significant reduction in excess housing inventory, which may be difficult with this decline in unemployment. Lastly is jobs. In my view, if jobs goes, everything goes, but that is me. In addition, many families are starting to save, not spend, which could lead to a decline in consumption. If all of these show signs of improvement, the bottom may be in; however, normally the market is about six months ahead of an economic recovery, unless most of the portfolio managers are scraping 2008 and are already looking to 2009.
Either way, I think you can short and buy select names and will be fine, either way and that is my plan. Financials are up about 40% in the past 10 days; however, with short rates low, banks can make a killing and the write-downs may not be as bad as expected. You got C, BAC, and GE saying they will be profitable in the first quarter, so if that is true, it will be a big game changer and these financials can still run. I personally like JPM the best of out of the banks because I am betting on Jamie Dimon. However, there are a few financials I want to sell short but I will need to see Geithner’s plan. It looks like we might have a big up day, FAS may print $6 again if the buzz is strong, so stay tuned and I will post everything I do.
As for the market in general, it is anyone’s guess, but futures as of 4:45 am were up about 20 pts on the S&P. The clip between Doug Kass and Gary Shilling says a lot. Kass and Shilling are two of the most negative people in the market, both calling this recession; however, Kass is extremely bullish, seeing 1100 on the S&P by summer. These two guys are rarely wrong, so it’s very weird to see them disagree. As for my take, there are a very more things I’d like to see before I change my bearish views. One is more clarity on how Geithner’s plan will stabilize the financial system. Another thing I want to see is a significant reduction in excess housing inventory, which may be difficult with this decline in unemployment. Lastly is jobs. In my view, if jobs goes, everything goes, but that is me. In addition, many families are starting to save, not spend, which could lead to a decline in consumption. If all of these show signs of improvement, the bottom may be in; however, normally the market is about six months ahead of an economic recovery, unless most of the portfolio managers are scraping 2008 and are already looking to 2009.
Either way, I think you can short and buy select names and will be fine, either way and that is my plan. Financials are up about 40% in the past 10 days; however, with short rates low, banks can make a killing and the write-downs may not be as bad as expected. You got C, BAC, and GE saying they will be profitable in the first quarter, so if that is true, it will be a big game changer and these financials can still run. I personally like JPM the best of out of the banks because I am betting on Jamie Dimon. However, there are a few financials I want to sell short but I will need to see Geithner’s plan. It looks like we might have a big up day, FAS may print $6 again if the buzz is strong, so stay tuned and I will post everything I do.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Stocks under $10 - TIE
Any stock under $10 is there for a reason (well most of the time) but there is one that might be worth looking at however and its TIE. Titanium Metal Corp has been drilled from a 52-week low of $19.50 to $4.39. Sales are forecasted to drop 19% this year and frankly the sales could drop more. In addition, this firm is tied to cyclical areas, especially commercial aircraft. Some GDP estimates are around -2.5% for 2009 and GDP declines normally depress demand for durable goods. Another risk is margin contraction, due to lower selling prices and lighter shipping volumes.
However, there are some noteworthy bullets for this stock. One is that that the firm is projecting a profit this year. Analysts estimate a $0.62 EPS for 2009 and the firm is projected to have positive free cash flow in 2009. In addition the firm has no long term debt on the books, which is a big plus. When drilling down deeper in the books, the book value of the firm is $6.45 and has about $0.13 of cash on the books. So, the stock is about 85% of book value, with no debt.
But there is one reason why I think this thing will takeoff and that is takeover rumors. The takeover rumors on this name have been running wild! On February 26th the calls were on fire and the rumors have went away but are coming back. I think this could be taken out at $9-11 but has a nice $1.50-2 upside on valuation, if they can deliver.
This is a risky play but at the right price I will look at it as a speculation play because of the clean balance sheet and takeover rumors. As for the technicals, I’d like to see more strength and price performance, however, the chart is a little compelling. Looks like a possible V bottom but time will tell. I no position and would like it to come in a little bit more, preferably in the $4’s. Will keep you posted but TIE is the ticker, so good luck and get your learn on. Will be back tomorrow AM with a market outlook for the week, as well as my take on the market and the Kass/Shilling segment.
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