CHU - iphone in China

Once again - two months early!

http://trade247.blogspot.com/2009/06/market-wrapup_18.html

"we win again"

Brazil (EWZ)

braz

DELL

Dell

AMD

Yes I am up in enorous fashion thanks to intels guide higher for 3Q

RF Sell amd half

Sold 1750 at 4.24 from 3.83 cost average

Still holding 1750

We win again

RF Short LVS

Shorted 100 at 14.10

RF Short SPY

Shorted 30 shares of SPY at 103.25 in premarket

RF Short SPY

Shorted 30 shares of SPY at 103.25 in premarket

Market Outlook

Greetings-

Futures look relatively flat today - which should indicate a flat or slightly red open. Other than that the big earnings news will come today after the bell, with DELL, as they report numbers. From my research, DELL seems to have been struggling with margins last quarter, as many of their component makers charged higher prices (to DELL) for the goods. I would love a sell off in the name to $13, so I could buy it. Long-term DELL will be fine, although HPQ seems to be knocking the cover off the ball. All in all, I will probably not buy anything today but that could change. I like coservative names like PG and PEP for the next 6 months; however, I just don't see any "sales" on wall street right now; therefore, I will just play it smart and sit back. LPX continues to explode after I sold it - shocker there! But WY, another housing play I own, hasn't moved nearly as much and is a good company. I am dissapointed they are selling timber land for dirty cheap. This is shoring up the balance sheet but since they are selling the at such low prices, it also hurts the true instrinic value of the stock. My estimates before were $50-55; now it's been lowered to $45-50. Regardless, I believe there are been a bottom in real estate (residential) and lumber is a good way to play it. I do NOT like the etfs like CUT though. Many firms that are in that etf have doubles or tripled (international based firms) and upside remains rather limited. I would also love to catch a pull in some emerging markets etfs, like Brazil (EWZ) because GDP growth seems to be robust in the coming years (will discuss Brazil soon).

RF Shorting IYR and QQQQ

Shorted 50 IYR at 40.50

Shorted 100 QQQQ at 40.51

HGSI

If you are still in this from the call at $3, will you please manage my money and save me the pain of days like SVR!

http://trade247.blogspot.com/2009/06/hgsi.html

My HGSI call June 11th - boy that hurts...

RF's S&P Prediction Revisited

http://trade247.blogspot.com/2009/04/2q-s-prediction.html

This is my post from first week in April....rather scary

RFS&P Prediction

SVR

I can't make this up people, held it for two weeks, sold it yesterday for breakeven and look at the bitch today!

Variant View

With all indexes up nice on day, .7%, I am goin to take a gamble and say we close red on the day!

Going Forward

When I look at my portfolio going forward, the one sector I remain bullish on is metals, particularly mining. I know there are "gold bugs" running around buying bricks of gold bullion and laughing at everyone who isn't because they claim gold is going to $3,000 an oz. Well, my argument to them is that "Is Inflation really coming as fast as people think and as violently?" Of course, much of this depends on monetary policy actions but in my views, certain things must occur before we see inflation. In my view "gold bugs" or "inflation lovers" need risings wages and there is no where to be found. Saving, rising unemployment, and wages that are not fiericng growing, in my view reduces robust inflation. Away from gold, there are many iron ore producers that will see volume increases in the coming years, unless we see drastic reductions in economic recovery. In addition, I believe there will be shortages of many metals in the coming years due to slower production. Rio Tinto (RTP) is the iron ore giant that I own (top 5 biggest positions) and will add more on dips. This stock used to be $400+ a share - i doubt it will get there again but from my valuation metrics, it's worth at least $200-$225 now. VALE and BHP are other good players - but from my perch, RTP may be the most expensive in terms of dollar amount per share; however, in reality, is the most inexpensive, in terms of true valuation. If you can trade the London Exchange, XSTRATA is an absolute steal at current levels and is worth about 50% more than current prices.

RF Portfolio updates

Portfolio I (Heavy cash with solid value longs of quality. Little commodity exposure with UNG but I don't recommend UNG right now)

70% cash
30% long

BAC, F, UNG, RIG, and STAR

Portfolio II (Some cash - tech, basic materials, and oil geared)

40% cash
60% long

ENTR, LVLT, WY, SLM, VALE, RTP, AMD, TSRA, HES, TSO

RF buy twm

Bought 200 at 31.20 for day trade.

Yes I need rehab for ultrashorts

RF Sell UYG $3 2011 calla

Sold all of my UYG $3 2011 Jan calls at $2.90 from April $1.75 purchase

65.7% gain

Market update

Futures seem to be tilting a little lower, however, the big news of today is that Ben Bernanke will be reappointed as Fed Chairman. I believe that was the best move Pres. Obama has made and I commend him highly for this. Bernanke, in my opinion, saved our economy from absolute disaster, by pushing "all-in". Of course, we are going to face some pain for this in due time, as Warren Buffett highlighted in his great NYT opt-ed last week (if you haven't read it, it's incredible - just go to nyt.com and search warren buffett, it should still be there). As for investing or even trading this market, it remains difficult. I have told many people and discussed with some money managers the basis of which an investment decision needs to be based upon. Before you buy, sell, or short anything; the main question you need to try to grasp is "Is this economic recovery, truly real?" That is really the question everyone wants to know and personally I am unsure because I look at credit card trust data and other economic variables that show good signs; however, I also see looming headwinds like higher tax rates on corporations that could stall economic growth. Regardless, that is really the main assumption of your investing decisions and then you place your bets. High cash levels balance out uncertainity, so that is my path. The bulls believe that the earnigns cycle, due to the replenishment of historically low inventories, extraordinary monetary stimulation and the productivity gains from draconian corporate cost-cutting,is so strong that it will trump the consequences of policy. They may be right; however, timing is difficult to grasp - after all how many people where buying equities in March? On the flip side, the "bears" see higher taxes, interest rate risks, and high umemployment looming. I used to lean to double-dip recession and still do but am beginning to think twice. On the way down, we had no government or fiscal/monatary actions, now we do. All in all, I will be trading cautiously and I don't believe this is a time to be too bullish, nor too bearish. For "speculative" trades - hurricane season is live and in full force - if you want to gamble on mother nature (yes, firms have meteroglists on staff to help predict this) there are stocks that work if hurricanes move through. Speculative nat gas plays work the best.

RF Sells

Sold half of SLM for 9.5% gain

Sold all FCX for slight gain

I will be back in FCX at lower levels. The sector reversals don't look all that healthy from my perch

update

Strong day, however, my gut tells me not to buy.

As mentioned months ago when s&p was at 800, I said 1050 by labor and damn if we might hit it on the day.

On other news, analysts are getting very bullish on consumer finance firms like AXP and COF. I am reading the upgrade now and all I can think is "where were yall a month ago"

Lastly, its time for a bold prediction. I feel that refiners are about to explode to the upside and will be buying more in size. Yea its a gamble, and yes oil is very high, but I bet with my gut and my gut is telling me to get long.


With that said, I might be back in FTK by Friday :D

RF Sells and AMD

Sold out of lpx for 26% gain

AMD smoking still holding 3500 shares


Bottom line to shorts, bet against RF and lose your house.

Market Outlook

Big week ahead in terms of economic data; however, most comes Thursday and Friday. I am stil unsure on how to play this market, hence my minimal activity. I still think it's smart to keep high cash levels, no shorts, and some longs. Nourel Roubei (Dr. DOOM) came out this weekend and said "we are at high-risk of double dip recession". This is not surprising, especially from a guy who has been wrong 100% ever since his call on the financial crisis. I do agree with him on this, meaning I believe a double dip recession is possible because chances of higher personal and corporate taxes that could occur, as well as the consumer may continue to be pinched as higher energy costs and high unemployment continue to linger.

As for trades, I will sell SVR at the open just because I the risks in their business model seem to high. I doubt I will short today, but may raise some cash, if need be. I also might buy 1 or 2 stocks but honestly, I rather buy the dips.