Friday, September 25, 2009
Market Outlook
With investors starting to get a little scared since the U.S. dollar run on Wednesday at 2:30pm EST, I suspect the selling pressure may continue for a little bit longer. Now, more than ever, is the time to conduct personal portfolio holdings, as many stocks have really reached max potential. If you are looking at a charts and hold stock XYZ at $20 and are waiting for it go to back to $80 like it was in 2007, that is NOT the best strategy. The market has 3 elements to it: 1) Sentiment 2) Valuation 3) Fundamentals. Currently, the market’s overly bullish sentiment and rich valuation is ahead of the fundamentals of our “jobless” economy. With that in mind, many short sellers have been blown out (including myself) shorting; however, they will try again and if they win, many will short aggressively, crushing this market an easy 8-10% and equities can tank.
Some food for thought:
1. I have a basket of portfolio holdings – some long-term, some dicerolls. I know the companies well enough to smack the CEO if I had to, so if they are reading, beware. I recommend listening to the conference calls of the stocks you own or go to Google Finance and keep up with the companies to ensure fundamentals are intact – and see what the analysts are saying. All of my buys are heavily researched, so I weigh the risk/reward then purchase.
2. Move into names of quality. The “sh*t” stocks have done enough – look for solid companies that investors have ignored that have strong global sales bases. Proctor and Gamble is a great one.
3. Stay diversified unless you know what you the game. I really don’t diversify but it is smart to if you want to reduce risk. The S&P has sector weights, so I will build the model this weekend and show.
4. Keep high cash levels and use that cash to cost average down into good companies.
Portfolio Holdings That I Currently Own:
BAC, F, PEP, Short QQQQ, TWM, UNG, Long AIG puts, Short FRO puts, ENTR, WY, HES, FIG, PG, TSYS, DRYS, ERTS, NSM, MU, SNV, FLR, HON
BAC, F, PEP, PG, WY I will hold forever – the rest are really just trades and can be sold instantly.
Some food for thought:
1. I have a basket of portfolio holdings – some long-term, some dicerolls. I know the companies well enough to smack the CEO if I had to, so if they are reading, beware. I recommend listening to the conference calls of the stocks you own or go to Google Finance and keep up with the companies to ensure fundamentals are intact – and see what the analysts are saying. All of my buys are heavily researched, so I weigh the risk/reward then purchase.
2. Move into names of quality. The “sh*t” stocks have done enough – look for solid companies that investors have ignored that have strong global sales bases. Proctor and Gamble is a great one.
3. Stay diversified unless you know what you the game. I really don’t diversify but it is smart to if you want to reduce risk. The S&P has sector weights, so I will build the model this weekend and show.
4. Keep high cash levels and use that cash to cost average down into good companies.
Portfolio Holdings That I Currently Own:
BAC, F, PEP, Short QQQQ, TWM, UNG, Long AIG puts, Short FRO puts, ENTR, WY, HES, FIG, PG, TSYS, DRYS, ERTS, NSM, MU, SNV, FLR, HON
BAC, F, PEP, PG, WY I will hold forever – the rest are really just trades and can be sold instantly.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
feedback
In response to emails on view of market is that I believe this looks to be a 3 to 5 % correction, probably (not sure) nothing more. I will buy cheap stocks that I think will buy higher regardless. If RIMM crushes numbers after the bell, the nasdaq will rip tommorow
My favorite longs are MU, NSM, MO, PG, and for gamble bets FIG, DRYS, ARM, look good
ESS and iyr are the best shorts, but no need to add here. I have massive cash hoards, and will buy this dip on scale and ride my way to a 300 % return
In conclusion, carry on fine women and men of Trade 247, drink and be marry
My favorite longs are MU, NSM, MO, PG, and for gamble bets FIG, DRYS, ARM, look good
ESS and iyr are the best shorts, but no need to add here. I have massive cash hoards, and will buy this dip on scale and ride my way to a 300 % return
In conclusion, carry on fine women and men of Trade 247, drink and be marry
Market
I got boatloads of cash and will buy dips.
This could last a few days but I would just keep high cash and buy things you like.
This could last a few days but I would just keep high cash and buy things you like.
Housekeeping Items - ERTS GME
Gamestop (GME) - Sony PS3 sales have grown 300% since price cut and Nintendo just made a price cut today, cutting the WII to $199! This is great news for GME - too bad I sold at $22 but GME should run to at least $30 given Christmas and this good news.
Electronic Arts (ERTS) - Microsoft just released a press release saying they are NOT interested in buying ERTS. I didn't buy it based on this but on fundmentals. I will add more in scale over time. http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE58N1EK20090924
Electronic Arts (ERTS) - Microsoft just released a press release saying they are NOT interested in buying ERTS. I didn't buy it based on this but on fundmentals. I will add more in scale over time. http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE58N1EK20090924
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
QCOM
I am buying this one for the 4G-Mobile Internet portfolio now. Near-term I am not expecting much as investors will chase high beta plays like SWKS or RFMD but long-term, the valuation is fair and will buy here for a long-term period. 40 shares at low $44's now
Market Outlook - September 23
Hope all is well - been out of town over these few days but have been posting. As for the market, it looks to be moving sideways with 3Q earnings starting now. General Mills (GIS) just destroyed earnings and raised guidance this morning, which is a good sign to me for Proctor & Gamble (PG), as well as the consumer since the strong earnings may be indicating consumers are spending more on branded products.
As for value in this market, it's hard to find but I am finding stuff I want to buy. I added some Global Construction Industrial yesterday in FLR and will add another Industrial today, to have 3 in total. Currently HON and FLR are my 2 industrials. I will also add some semiconductors. I add MU last week, in healthy size and believe it will march higher.
I will also add to my WY below cost and PG. I believe PEP and PG should trade higher by Christmas and pays great dividends. WY is tied to the economy and housing, so if we tank, it will tank; however, I think it could explode to the upside.
Other retailers/services I am looking at are: HD, EBAY, and LOW.
As for value in this market, it's hard to find but I am finding stuff I want to buy. I added some Global Construction Industrial yesterday in FLR and will add another Industrial today, to have 3 in total. Currently HON and FLR are my 2 industrials. I will also add some semiconductors. I add MU last week, in healthy size and believe it will march higher.
I will also add to my WY below cost and PG. I believe PEP and PG should trade higher by Christmas and pays great dividends. WY is tied to the economy and housing, so if we tank, it will tank; however, I think it could explode to the upside.
Other retailers/services I am looking at are: HD, EBAY, and LOW.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
RF Buys PEP,FLR,SNV
Added to PEP today in long portfolio and bought 2011 $70 calls at $1.90.
Added to SNV at $3.90' Bought 30 shares of FLR at $55.10 .
AMD is making me sick!
Added to SNV at $3.90' Bought 30 shares of FLR at $55.10 .
AMD is making me sick!
Monday, September 21, 2009
BHP - Looking for a Purchase
BHP
We made some good profits buying metals like VALE and RTP but BHP has been on my buylist due to it's conservative nature and $24 BILLION in cash. The WSJ reported this weekend they are looking for mergers - here is a good analyst note on the possible companies. FCX is possible, VALE is NOT. They tried buying RTP for like $450 a share last year and they might come back to the table....Xstrata is another i think they could swing for.
We made some good profits buying metals like VALE and RTP but BHP has been on my buylist due to it's conservative nature and $24 BILLION in cash. The WSJ reported this weekend they are looking for mergers - here is a good analyst note on the possible companies. FCX is possible, VALE is NOT. They tried buying RTP for like $450 a share last year and they might come back to the table....Xstrata is another i think they could swing for.
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