Bought 25 at 38.76
I am sure it will dip but will add more on scale. I think we could see 45 low end to 50 high end
Also there is a huge rumor GE is going to issue 5 billion in a secondary offering. Not good for the market or shareholders, if true. As I stated for months, GE is a trainwreck with a moron of a CEO. Be careful with GE, it aint as good as it seems there, if the voices in my head are correct
I'm out of here, ill be back with research this weekend, later
Friday, September 11, 2009
Market Outlook - Sept 11
Well this week has definetly not gone as planned. I have kept most of my shorts and still believe we are due for a pullback; however, it may not happen. I am down on the month about 5% - so needless to say I am pretty pissed off. I have been cleaning out some longs but honestly may regret it. I sold STAR the other day, not based on the story, but based on a belief that I will buy the stock cheaper. I do that very often actually – sometimes I sell out of a position for a particular reason but majority of the time I try to play a channel. For example, if I buy stock XYZ for $5 and it goes to $5.50 and I have a bad feeling of market, I will sell all for quick 10% gain and buy it back at $5. Needless to say, that does not always work; however, occasionally it does.
As for my portfolios, 1 portfolio is great and the other is not great. In portfolio 2, my long only portfolio (inception May) I have a 100% win rate - - out of 84 trades I have made profit on all. The other long/short portfolio I have about 80% win rate, which is down from about 92%. I have lost thousands shorting as a hedges, but from a YTD% gain and am up about still 252% on it – so I am just flat over months. If I would have not shorted I would be up monsterous – oh well. My point is that shorting is risky and acts as a “hedge”. Anotherwards, you get paid on a “rainy day”. The biggest error is I was forecasting a “typhoon”, we got a “thunderstorm” and I didn’t cover any of my shorts. Sometimes, it’s smart to be a long only investor; however, last year we say that all long only portfolios were red, while shorts were rich. I recommend not shorting unless you can read sentiment, techincals, equity valuations, etc…and even at that, it’s extremely difficult. Many equities are fully priced or are overvalued but that doesn’t mean we can’t go higher. In a long-only model portfolio, I think 50-60% cash is very wise in these conditions because if we do “tank” you have tons of cash to buy things cheap. If we don’t dip, you still have decent exposure. My favorite sector is the most unloved which is consumer staples. Stocks like Proctor & Gamble (PG) still have a lot of value but are considered “slow money”. So when I see stocks that are cheap, however, are “slow money” I just make it a small % of my portfolio. I think PG could get to $60 low end - $70 high end; however, since it’s slow money and I like quick gains, I make it a small % of the portfolio, so all of my capital is not tied up and I can trade actively.
Lastly, today I will count my blessings, as it marks 7 years since 9/11....may God bless the families of those who lost loved ones.
As for my portfolios, 1 portfolio is great and the other is not great. In portfolio 2, my long only portfolio (inception May) I have a 100% win rate - - out of 84 trades I have made profit on all. The other long/short portfolio I have about 80% win rate, which is down from about 92%. I have lost thousands shorting as a hedges, but from a YTD% gain and am up about still 252% on it – so I am just flat over months. If I would have not shorted I would be up monsterous – oh well. My point is that shorting is risky and acts as a “hedge”. Anotherwards, you get paid on a “rainy day”. The biggest error is I was forecasting a “typhoon”, we got a “thunderstorm” and I didn’t cover any of my shorts. Sometimes, it’s smart to be a long only investor; however, last year we say that all long only portfolios were red, while shorts were rich. I recommend not shorting unless you can read sentiment, techincals, equity valuations, etc…and even at that, it’s extremely difficult. Many equities are fully priced or are overvalued but that doesn’t mean we can’t go higher. In a long-only model portfolio, I think 50-60% cash is very wise in these conditions because if we do “tank” you have tons of cash to buy things cheap. If we don’t dip, you still have decent exposure. My favorite sector is the most unloved which is consumer staples. Stocks like Proctor & Gamble (PG) still have a lot of value but are considered “slow money”. So when I see stocks that are cheap, however, are “slow money” I just make it a small % of my portfolio. I think PG could get to $60 low end - $70 high end; however, since it’s slow money and I like quick gains, I make it a small % of the portfolio, so all of my capital is not tied up and I can trade actively.
Lastly, today I will count my blessings, as it marks 7 years since 9/11....may God bless the families of those who lost loved ones.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
FTK
A robot came to my computer recently and bought 500 shares for my account...
I told him "No! Don't do it!"
The Robot replied "It's going to $3...bitch"
I told him "No! Don't do it!"
The Robot replied "It's going to $3...bitch"
Airlines and Oil
Airlines are on fire today! I'm disappointed about selling my CAL at 11 but oh well, I like the sector. Its cheap but the big threat is oil prices and the swine flu.
Also the NYT is reporting Iran could be expiditing a nuclear bomb could send oil ripping. I like HES the best in the group. RIG for drillers and as for etfs the xle
Also the NYT is reporting Iran could be expiditing a nuclear bomb could send oil ripping. I like HES the best in the group. RIG for drillers and as for etfs the xle
PG LVS
PG raised guidance, great company and my best long teen investment pick. Solid brand, multinational, benefits from weak dollar, cheap valuation, 3% dividend, good management
LVS - citigroup started coverage with sell rating and $13. Currently, its one of my favorite shorts. Its crowded though. Macau numbers are great but I believe they will lose share.
LVS - citigroup started coverage with sell rating and $13. Currently, its one of my favorite shorts. Its crowded though. Macau numbers are great but I believe they will lose share.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Market Outlook - Sept 9th
Futures seem relatively flat today, as the market really seems to be up and down with no direction. I trimmed some longs earlier and looked to add some, if we ever get a pullback, but I want to be safe and make the right moves. The AIG short is working very well, both from the share short and the put purchase. I really believe AIG is worth $1 a share but timing will be vital. AMD decided to break out yesterday...it's rather funny in the past 2 weeks the stock is up 41% and 2 weeks prior to that, it was flat - did nothing. Below is the analyst upgrade. I must laugh at such a thing - in all of my time trading, I can't recall an analyst upgrade that was made during market hours lollllll. I mean seriously, most upgrades/downgrades are made in the morning and get things fueling. This upgrade was like at 2pm and it came out of nowhere! I agree with some of the analyst view points; however, I will say AMD has a management that is known to screw up and the price target assumptions seem rather bold, in my view. RIG is starting to pick up some steam from the $73 purchase and is the best/cheapest play on oil exploration.
Lastly, as you see above, the finanical index is very weak. It will hard for this rally to be sustained when the banks are left behind. The NASDAQ looks to still be oversold, while the NYSE index is back into overbought conditions.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Bill Gross Sept 09 (Must Read)
Bill Gross Pimco - Sept09 Newsletter
In my view, Bill Gross is one of the most influential minds in investing - if not "the" most influential mind in investing. Of the people I listen to in the media. Bill Gross ranks in the top 5, I think very highly of him. If you are an investor, of any sort, this is a "must read"
In my view, Bill Gross is one of the most influential minds in investing - if not "the" most influential mind in investing. Of the people I listen to in the media. Bill Gross ranks in the top 5, I think very highly of him. If you are an investor, of any sort, this is a "must read"
Im Pissed
Let's cut right to the chase people - AMD. If you are new to the blog this is the crap that has been going on my entire trading career. Back 2 months ago I wanted to bet big and loaded up on 2000 shares of AMd into earnings at 4.05. The earnings blew and the stock fell to 3.50 in after hours. Most people freak and sell but I bought another 1000. A month after the stock did nothing, so I bought 500 more at 3.53 and then boomed we rip. I sold majority between 4.07 and 4.45 and now look at the butch today...4.92 and counting! I will sell my 500 now into this gay ramp.
The next rant is in TSYS. Who knows this stock? Nobody but my dumbass and I posted in premarket I wanted to buy it and then its up 5% on thin volume while the market is down! Then I said screw it ill buy 1000 when it dips from 7.40 to 7.25. Now today, I have none and the damn thing is at 8 bucks.
I'm losing it...
The next rant is in TSYS. Who knows this stock? Nobody but my dumbass and I posted in premarket I wanted to buy it and then its up 5% on thin volume while the market is down! Then I said screw it ill buy 1000 when it dips from 7.40 to 7.25. Now today, I have none and the damn thing is at 8 bucks.
I'm losing it...
Update
Investors are flocking to basic materials today, driving the market way higher. The down is very weak today and sectors like materials, industrials, and energy are soaring.
With that said, focus on multinational firms that benefit from a weaker dollar, in the staples and industrial sectors.
My plays are PG, PEP, RTP, VALE,HES, RIG
Other I don't own that fit the bill are HON, EMR, JCI, GIS, etc
With that said, focus on multinational firms that benefit from a weaker dollar, in the staples and industrial sectors.
My plays are PG, PEP, RTP, VALE,HES, RIG
Other I don't own that fit the bill are HON, EMR, JCI, GIS, etc
Caught Short
Boy - I hating losing and it occasionally happens, as my shorts are blowing up all in my face. LVS is up another $1 in premarket and RCL is up strongly as well. Some when I mess up this badly, I go back to see what I did wrong...When the SPY was at $104, I figured we had at least a 3-5% correction due to overbought conditions and other variable I see and possiblity a 10% full correction. Well last week, we corrected 3% by thursday and I was up heavily on my shorts but made the mistake by not coveringa any other them - which was the biggest flaw. I should have covered, at mininum, a 1/3 of my shorts because the osillators, particularly on the NASDAQ, were in oversold conditions. Instead, I got greedy, thought we could get another 2-7% off and as a result, i am down horribly on my shorts and overall for the month, which pisses me off to no end.
Now I must reassess, not panic cover, and determine my next move. If the sentiment gets bullish again, I will cover all and go 80% cash in both portfolios - no shorts and only 20% long. I am not pissing around with this market and I don't feel like getting crushed if we drop 100 pts on the S&P. I will hope for a 10a fade but I am not betting on it. Also look at movement in gold, if things are so good, why is gold $1,000 an oz?
Now I must reassess, not panic cover, and determine my next move. If the sentiment gets bullish again, I will cover all and go 80% cash in both portfolios - no shorts and only 20% long. I am not pissing around with this market and I don't feel like getting crushed if we drop 100 pts on the S&P. I will hope for a 10a fade but I am not betting on it. Also look at movement in gold, if things are so good, why is gold $1,000 an oz?
Sunday, September 6, 2009
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