Earnings for This Week

These are the key earnings for this week, trade accordingly!

Monday
BAC, BSX, HAL, IBM, TXN

Tuesday
AMD, AKS, BJS, BRCM, COF, CAT, CENX, COH, CREE, RF, SNDK, STX, KO, USB, UTX, UNH, YHOO

Wednesday
AAPL, T, CMG, CAL, GSK, IR, MCD, MS, STLD, BA, VMW, WFC, YUM

Thursday
AMZN, AXP, AMGN, BDK, CF, COP, IBKR, MSFT, NFLX, NOV, PEP, RS, SPWRA, UPS

Friday
MMM, ACI, F, HON, SLB


No positions taking on any earnings trades yet for me. I will say that the AAPL number will be interesting. Frankly, I believe alot of the good news is priced into the stock and the most upside I see is $130-$135. If you own the stock, I would protect yourself here. If I owned the stock, I would sell a premium call that equals a premium put. For example, I'd sell the AAPL $130 calls for $3.3o, collect the $330 and buy the $115 puts for $3.30 (a $330 payout). You upside is capped but you have free insurance. This is more a risk adverse trade but you are really bullish, let it roll with no options. As for Sandisk, the options could be signaling a bullish number. Over 5,000 calls were bought on SNDK at the $14 strike, which is more than the open interest. In addition, 3,097 were bought at the $15 strike. As for puts, there were about 1,581 puts traded on the $15 strike. Perhaps big money is buying the $14 call and buying the $15 put but I will say that there is way more call buying going, so far. As for my view on SNDK, the firm has some catalysts, mainly stemming from Apple's purchases on flash memory. On the contrary, I believe the firm could have weaker margins due to weaker prices and I am not to thrilled about the management. However, I do love semiconductors.

FEED

It looks like we have a new pennant forming? Does this puppy have room to roll?

We shall see....

Weekly Recap

Go celebrate your winnings and party Donnie Deutsch style....

RF Sell IBKR CROX

Sold all for good wins

IBKR + 12% gain
CROX + 33% gain

RF BUY CLF MT STLD

Bought 50-50-150

RF Sell LVLT

Sold all at 1.25, good wins +19.5% day trade gain

GNK

I did it again people, seller's remorese! - $19 now...

RF Buy LVLT

Bought 1,000 at $1.06


Also bought 300 more ALU at $2.36

RF Buy FAZ

Bought 100 at 9.43 for a hedge, this tape is uneasy.

RF sell EMC

Sold all at 12.92

45 profit

Market Outlook

Update 7:08 AM: GE up 10% in premarket....

Market Wrapup & Outlook

Sorry for the delay I have been swamped. As for the market, we crushed them today. Everything imploded in the green, so good wins for your boy and I am sure you all did well. Below is my position update, I am a little concerned about LVS but plan on holding. The MGM bankruptcy rumors are running wild, so it will hit all of the casinos.

Going forward, I would advise keeping high cash levels, so you will not get burned. I have a feeling we will pullback strong because the shorts are piling in. Frankly, it's possible we get another 40 points in the S&P but that's about it. I bought FAZ today and sold it once again for a damn loss, I hate that ETF. I sold my UYG as well for a tiny loss. Frankly, I just don't feel comfortable with financials at these levels, period. On a strong pullback, I will buy some banks but not all. As for sectors, I like semiconductors and REAL commodity based firms. Real commodities are Copper, Steel, Alumnium, not Gold. As for oil, I believe we will hit $40 again, so I am stumped. I like energy for a longer-term play but that's about it.

As for the rally, enjoy the short-squeeze because I think it's about over. Not trying to be a crazy but this is NOT the real rally in my view. I don't believe we will revisit 666 on the S&P but we can retrace. I just hope we are in mostly all cash, so we can get great bargains!

RF Portfolio:
ACH, ALU, ASX, CROX, EMC, FCS, GIGM, IBKR, JASO, JAVA, LVS, ODP, OWW, RUTH, TSM, FEED Calls, MAC puts (will be worthless tomorrow)

RF sell JJC

Sold all 450 profit

RF sell rfmd

Sold last 1500 at 2.60, 1030 profit!

RF Buy GIGM ALU, RF Sell GNK

Sold all GNK at 16.75

Bought 500 GIGM at $6.90

Bought 350 ALU at $2.38

RF Buy FAZ

Bought 200 at 9.50

Its a hedge I'm long heavily in the market

RF SELL CROX

SOLD 300 AT $2.10 - $110 PROFIT

RF SELL - RFMD

SOLD 1,500 SHARES OF RFMD AT $2.50 - 34.5% GAIN - $955 PROFIT

STILL LONG 1,500

RFMD

I will not be denied! Still long 3k shares

RF Sell UYG URE

Sold almost all at breakeven

Not selling RFMD

Semiconductors to Watch

FCS

Economic Update

China Q1 GDP only grew 6.1%, lowest since 1992.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chinas-economic-growth-slows-apf-14941696.html


US Foreclosures up 21%
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-foreclosures-up-24-pct-in-apf-14941693.html


Market likely to very choppy today and looks to be heading to the downside....may Jamie Dimon step in and hit a grand slam with earnings! We also have C and GE tomorrow, so volatility will be up high. For the VIX, I put a live quote on the links to the left.

Position Update: EMC

Jon Najarian says on CNBC that EMC could be a target of an acquisition

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30231745

Position Update: JAVA

Sun wants to go back to the table with IBM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aI_nbLXPtsUs&refer=home

Market Outlook

Bottom line:

We are killing it folks! The voices were right, the short squeeze came through. JPM releases earnings tomorrow, may they kill the shorts! Also china GDP numbers come out tonite, it should be interesting to say the least.

Ill be back later with a position update, I am having fun, hope yall are!

RF Sell Feed

Sold all of my equity but keeping options.

Monster gains, we r killing it this week!

RFMD

RF wins again.

RF Buy LVS

Bought 250 at 5.02

RF Sell JJC

Sold 50 at 30.82 - 19% gain - $226 profit

Still long 100

RF Buy CROX

Bot 350 at 1.76

Call me crazy

But I think we have a short squeeze coming

Could be wrong though

JASO FEED

Thinning contacts to 25 and jaso position by half. Both at breakeven

I'm busy so can't do live time today. RFMD and ACH moving well, copper heavy here.

RFMD

The only semiconductor not down today....

Interesting...

RF Buy OWW

Bot 300 at 1.51

Market Outlook

Not too much to look at. I think the shorts have the ball here but I don't want to be short yet. Expect more of a pullback. CPI was negative, shocking economists but I not because my "voices" predicted it (see archives). In my view we will stay the same, deflation is beginning and inflation is far away but will be violent. As for oil, we will hit 40 this year sometime but go no higher than 65

I like the chips on a dip, intc, rfmd, tsm,

Market Wrapup

Interesting day to say the least. My bets in Copper and Shippers paid off extremly well; however, my smaller bets in URE and UYG did not. I booked solid profits in PCU and sold half of my GNK. The Intel numbers after the bell were good in my view, regardless of the AH's selloff. The bottom is in for the PC Market, so I think this dip is a strong buy. I personally own TSM and RFMD. INTC below $15 becomes very attractive. As for financials, I might have lost on the trade. Short sellers are getting back in so be careful on the long side here. I am still long UYG, hopefully for Jamie Dimon to come out with a "Grand Slam" quarter to scare the shorts to death. JP Morgan reports Thursday but I am hoping for a early preannouncement.

As for JASO, I bought more and hoping for a bigger breakout. The breakout peaked at 10am, so I am hoping for a retest and some "breakage". It's a sizeable position for me, so I may set stop losses on partial shares to reduce risk, while keeping a core long-term position. Below is my updated portfolio. As for the market, it looks like we will retrace to 825 on the S&P but hopefully some good news can scare the shorts into selling some. I believe there is firm support on the S&P around 825 and could be the bottom channel of the "sawtooth" pattern that we will see. So for example, I believe we will hit 900 then 825 then 900 then 825 then 900 then 825 then go to 1000. This is my thought and prediction, so it could definetly be wrong.

Now to my top position, RFMD. I am a big believe in this semiconductor but the bet relies on the firm's supply chain. I believe the demand will be there but they need to stock inventories up and get them out the door. I own over 3,000 shares and plan on buying more. If you want to play it longer term, the January 2010 $2.50 calls are selling at $.50 cents. Not a bad deal for a longer term play.

I am off, catch you tomorrow.

RF Buy JASO

Bot 500 at 3.68

RF Feed May 5 calls

Bot 50 contracts at .20 cents

RF Buy Feed RFMD

Bot feed at 3.37 400 shares

Bot 500 rfmd at 1.95

RF BUY RFMD

Bot 250 more

Update:
I sold the rest of my pcu above 22, 214 profit

Cut half of my URE at a loss of like 100ish

ODP

Another RF special poised to go

RF Sell GNK

Sold half at 16.45' 19.5% gain

480 profit

RF Sell PCU

Sold 50 at 22.10

230 profit

RF wins again

GNK JASO PCU ACH

Market Outlook

Futures are rather mixed right now. Goldman Sachs killed numbers but they are issuing stock to pay back to tarp, which is putting pressure on the stock price. As for financials, they could roll higher. I just bought the UYG for a broader play but I plan to blow of out it this week sometime. I bought the FAS at $2.50 but sold it at $4.50, so I missed alot of fun, needless to say.


If you are still long FEED (ballsy), it looks like it can still roll. Here is a list of chinese "rippers" that have room to go higher!

All around $5 and under:

CBAK, CSUN, FEED, JASO, SDTH, AOB, SOLF, FSIN, WX, KONG

I bought a lot of stuff yesterday, so I am about 75% equities, 25% cash.

Update: As I am typing the White House's Economic Head - Romer is blabbing how the economy is not out of the woods yet, dropping futures.

JASO - Breakout Watch

We are setting up for a potential rip....can JASO break its resistance...or will it fail?

I am long..

RF Partial Sell PCU & UYG

Sold another 50 in AH - $21.60ish (can't be a pig here - bought around $17) $200 profit, still holding 100.

Sold 500 UYG @ $3.82 for $5 profit - financials are trading rather pathetic in AH...still will hold 500

Market Wrapup

Back by popular demand. I gotta run so no wrapup, just count your $$ and I will be back later or tomorrow. If you sent an e-mail, I replied and if you commented, I also replied. Take care

goldman preannounced!

The voices don't lie!

RF Buy URE

Bot 500 at 3.51

RF Buy ACH

Bot 100 at 19.23, tip the hat to RT on this one

RF AAPL

Selling naked 100 puts for july on aapl at 4.40

See disclaimer below, this is not a recommendation

RF Buy UYG

Bot 1000 at 3.79

RF Buy RUTH

Bot 500 more at 1.59.

RF Buy JASO

Bot 500 more at 3.55

TSM

Just hit 10, semis are hot!

RF position update

PCU JJC JASO TSM EMC CROX IBKR RFMD RUTH GNK ODP FEED (from first buy)

Update: the feed is from my small purchase at 2.52 note the 1000 share purchase, sorry.

Market

This market does not want to go down it seems, more short squeezes possible.

RF Buy RFMD

Bot 750 more

RF Sell JJC

Sold 50 shares at 29.90. 180 profit, 11.5% gain

Still have 150

RF Buy ODP

Bot 500 at 1.87, too cheap

GNK

Long in size

SNDK Update

Not long yet but I am hearing good news. I recieved a comment about the straddle play, I will look into this and get back with you on it. SDNK just got estimates raised on it today and I hear Apple is buying massive orders of flask disks from them.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=BCOM&date=20090413&id=9779417

RF BUY - RFMD

Bought 500 at $1.85

I have accumlated 1,500 shares averaged in around $1.86, I am buying more, below is why.


UBS Raises RFMD Esimates, Raises Price Target to $3.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Contributors/RF+Micro+(RFMD):+Upgraded+to+Buy+at+UBS,+ests+upped+significantly/4551874.html

RF Buy

Bot more RFMD at 1.84

Bot gnk this am at 13.75

Bot Ruth at 1.67

RF Sell Feed

Sold 1000 at 3, 630 profit 27.6% profit.

FEED

Your welcome,I win again!

RF Buy RFMD

Bot 500 at 1.90

RF Sell PCU

Sold 50 at 20.85,

162.50 profit, 21.2% gain, still have 150

2Q & S&P PREDICTION

As you know by now, I do not like making market "projections" but for what it's worth, here is what I am thinking on the S&P.

The S&P rally can continue with solid bank earnings. I due believe that the 875 resistance will be difficult to drive through, unless bank earnings are incredible. I think in the next 6 months we will be higher from now, getting between 1000-1050 on the S&P. I don't believe it will be a straight line up, which is what will create the challenge. If you buy the "high" points on the channel and sell the "low" points, you will lose big money, in my view, possibly majority of your portfolio. To reduce that risk, I believe keeping high cash levels of 25-30% will help, so if you buy high, you can cost average into key positions. I believe the S&P will move in a "sawtooth" pattern, rather than a "lower left to upper right - diagonal, upward line". If my prediction is true, this market will be difficult to trade; however, timing will be key. If you time your trades perfectly, you will make a very high return. As mentioned before, I believe 777 on the S&P is VERY FIRM support and it's possible we can retrace to that but I doubt we will trade below that. As for upside, I expect to see 875-900 very soon (within 2 weeks) and my ultimate price objective on the S&P is 1050 - let's say by Labor Day.

In conclusion, I suspect a channel forming in the S&P very soon and a top to bottom touch of about 2-3 times before we reach new highs. As for sectors, I suspect money to flow out of healthcare and consumer staples and into technology, energy, and consumer discretionary (I don't know this for a fact but if I managed billions, that is what I would do).

As for today's trading, futures are lower, which is what I thought (hence the 50% cash level). If we have a bank preannounce by 9a, we could rocket higher. I plan on buying stuff today, so I will post later.

Strategy for this Week - Part II

The numbers from BBBY and RT really spoke loud; however, many people seem to have ignored this because they are too worried about dumb banks. Those earnings showed me that the consumer is NOT dead. This is a rather risky trade but if I managed billions, I would be telling the boys (and girls) to start getting overweight Consumer Discretionary and underweight Consumer Staples. Here is a small list that focuses on Restaurants and Apparel Stores.

Restaurants:

High Short Interest: LN, PNRA, PFCB, CMG, BWLD, SNS, RRGB, DIN, CBRL, AND TXRH.

Cheapos under $5: RUTH, DENN, KKD, MRT, TAST, CHUX, and MSSR.

Higher Quality Names: YUM, DRI

(Note: names like: DPZ and PZZA are also interesting due to price friendly products)

Apparel Stores

High Short Interest: JOSB, JCG, BKE, MW, DSW, JWN, ANF, HOTT, GYMB, ZUMZ

Cheapos under $5: PSUN, TWB, CACH, SHRS, SMRT, WTSLA, TLB, NWY, CBK

Higher Quality Names: All of them suck right now!


Like I said these are just two industries related to the consumer, there are many more I have researched. I will post buys when I make them but take a look at some of these names. I would look at Restaurants harder than Apparel Stores; however, there are many more industries that are tied to the consumer, that maybe worth a look. The key is to get creative and ponder.

As for high short interest, please note that shorts are way smarter than the longs, for many reasons. Shorts do their homework; however, heavily shorted stocks can lead to short squeezes (often lead by other hedge funds) leading to a surge in a stock, for a nice quick trade. The market is nothing more than 70 hedge funds battling it out with each other and then you have the mutual funds (the 401k buyers). Hedge funds try to find out other hedge fund positions, then try to short them, to hurt the other hedge funds or vice versa, so they can get a higher return and steal clients from their competitors (this stuff really goes on). Anyways, the main point is that if a company is highly shorted, it’s probably for a good reason. However, just because a stock is at $10 and worth $0, doesn’t mean it can’t go to $25 in between. Just ask the commercial real estate short sellers.

Earnings Watch - The Week of April 13th

Key ones to watch in my view:


Intel - INTC (Reports Monday after the bell)
Goldman Sachs - (Reports Tuesday before Market)
Google - GOOG (Reports Thursday after the bell)
JP Morgan - JPM (Reports Thursday before the bell)
Sandisk - SNDK (Reports Thursday after the bell-note I think this was moved to next week)
Cypress Semiconductor - CY (Reports Thursday - time not supplied)
Citigroup - C (Report Friday before Open)
General Electric - GE (Report Friday before Open)
BBT (Report Friday before Open)


I am looking into SNDK but if they miss, the pain will be unbearable. I will be back later with a post of Consumer names, until then Happy Easter, enjoy the Lord's blessings, and get ready to "do work" this week.