http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/09/10/09/apple_again_causes_worldwide_nand_flash_shortage.html
(Note: If you are a Apple shareholder, I highly urge you to check out Appleinsider.com a few times a week)
Of course, who are NAND suppliers?
The almighty Micron (MU) :D
Samsung as well
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Friday, October 9, 2009
Market outlook
Market is stablizing but the key indicator are banks and tech - we need both. The NASAQ is approaching overbought levels but not of serious proportion. With my money, I will be adding to foregin stocks and shippers. This market in unpredictable but with earnings, I believe you do not want to be short, maybe a index short like TWM for a hedge but nothing major - if any, I have to due to amount of $$ i trade but otherwise just keep you a long only portfolio with some extra cash (30-50%) and buy the dips. Shippers - I believe we are getting a year end rally on the BDI. I will do the following now: Sell my HON for a 2% loss Buy GNK at $21.60 Buy TBSI at $8.93
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Shippers
I suspect a huge move in the BDI for 4th Quarter - the shipper trade is back on til Christmas
DSX, GNK, DRYS, EXM, TBSI
I am calling in now - 10/8/09
DSX, GNK, DRYS, EXM, TBSI
I am calling in now - 10/8/09
RF Buy
Bought SQM at 38.45
Bought 2500 FTK at 2.10, the intraday looks sick!
Will keep 2.05 stop on FTK
Bought 2500 FTK at 2.10, the intraday looks sick!
Will keep 2.05 stop on FTK
RF Sells
Sold 1/3 of STLD at 15.50 (13.90 cost)
Sold 1/2 ERTS at 20 (18.50 cost)
Sold 60% of mu at breakeven
Sold 1/2 ERTS at 20 (18.50 cost)
Sold 60% of mu at breakeven
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
I'm Going Global
Don't think your boy RF has fallen asleep because folks he hasn't. I have been testing the new blog out and just making sure everything is going to be good before we bolt from this Blogger site.
Away from that, I have been research emerging markets and believe that Brazil, Chile, Austraila, and Russia are my favorite while Sweden seems like Short. In fact, "birds from far away" are saying that Goldman Sachs is telling clients a pair trade: Long Russia Short Norway - if you want the Bloomberg codes, email me.
Brazil - Has a huge run but the broad way to play it is EWZ. VALE just got upgrades by Goldman Sachs today (shocker we had it in August at $19 but..) the raised estimates and see $28 per share. They are telling big clients to buy Dec or Jan $28 calls. I personally don't like that call but I bought back shares today in my client's portfolio, not my personal. STD is another bank I own; however, the IPO did terrible today - very disappointing. If you ever want to study a sweet chart, pull up a March - Oct chart on STD lollllll it's insane! It's a good bank. This weekend I will release some of my findings.
Russia- A consumer driven economy. I have been buying RSX about 2 weeks ago, as I mentioned and am up 6%. I will be in and out but many are bearish on Russia - I am not. Housing related equities in Russia need to bounce but the consumer drives Russia and retail stocks have performed similar to our bank stocks. Anotherwards, retail is the Russia market leader and I like that.
In conclusion - I am going global - very soon - and want commodity related names
Away from that, I have been research emerging markets and believe that Brazil, Chile, Austraila, and Russia are my favorite while Sweden seems like Short. In fact, "birds from far away" are saying that Goldman Sachs is telling clients a pair trade: Long Russia Short Norway - if you want the Bloomberg codes, email me.
Brazil - Has a huge run but the broad way to play it is EWZ. VALE just got upgrades by Goldman Sachs today (shocker we had it in August at $19 but..) the raised estimates and see $28 per share. They are telling big clients to buy Dec or Jan $28 calls. I personally don't like that call but I bought back shares today in my client's portfolio, not my personal. STD is another bank I own; however, the IPO did terrible today - very disappointing. If you ever want to study a sweet chart, pull up a March - Oct chart on STD lollllll it's insane! It's a good bank. This weekend I will release some of my findings.
Russia- A consumer driven economy. I have been buying RSX about 2 weeks ago, as I mentioned and am up 6%. I will be in and out but many are bearish on Russia - I am not. Housing related equities in Russia need to bounce but the consumer drives Russia and retail stocks have performed similar to our bank stocks. Anotherwards, retail is the Russia market leader and I like that.
In conclusion - I am going global - very soon - and want commodity related names
Market Outlook - Oct. 7
The market is bouncing from oversold levels, so I am hoping for one more up day then will sell into strength. After the bell we have big earnings from Alcoa, which is act as a big guide for how our economy is doing. Frankly, Yum Brands (YUM) had a great quarter yesterday after the close and I think that need to be looked at as well.
I presented my AAPL case yesterday, let me clean it up now, so it's readable lol. This blogger is making me mad, the new blog will be up in two weeks. I have been saying that forever but it's in test mode, everything is good to go!
One housekeeping item - research reports. I have got a few requests on BA, BAC, GE, GOOG, C, etc.. and have posted them on scribd and some here. I do not post all the Scribd uploads because it would make the blog look crazy; however, I am willing to accept research requests for this week. Just let me know which reports you want, this way:
1. Comment on here (it's sometimes weird)
2. A scribd message
3. A scribd comment
4. Email at trade247blog@gmail.com
Scribd is the best way - it's a pretty cool site and free. Just let me know if I missed any, just been crazy busy.
I presented my AAPL case yesterday, let me clean it up now, so it's readable lol. This blogger is making me mad, the new blog will be up in two weeks. I have been saying that forever but it's in test mode, everything is good to go!
One housekeeping item - research reports. I have got a few requests on BA, BAC, GE, GOOG, C, etc.. and have posted them on scribd and some here. I do not post all the Scribd uploads because it would make the blog look crazy; however, I am willing to accept research requests for this week. Just let me know which reports you want, this way:
1. Comment on here (it's sometimes weird)
2. A scribd message
3. A scribd comment
4. Email at trade247blog@gmail.com
Scribd is the best way - it's a pretty cool site and free. Just let me know if I missed any, just been crazy busy.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
RF's Apple Case
I got a quick minute and just want to discuss one of my recent purchase Apple (AAPL). Many are trying to get bearish on the stock; however, the stock is the KEY market leader in my view. Their case is that the consumer will weaken due to high unemployment and simply put, the weaker consumer cannot afford $3,000 Mac computers. My answer back is quite simply, if we are truly in a "depression" how in the world is Apple earning more money this year that last year? That too me is beyond incredible, we have unemployment at 9.8% (if you add in discouraged workers it's 16.7%) and Apple will make more profit this year, than last! Here is what I am seeing (and like): 1. The Iphone is the key product driver. The app store is driving revenue and the iPhone only has a 4% market share. The amazing thing is that it has a 4% market share, with only 1 carrier, that being AT&T. If the go to a Verizon network, the volume in iPhone shipments can double, if not triple. Let's talk facts: Last year the firm's revenue was $32.4B and iPhone Revenue was $1.8B. 2009 estimates, total revenue is looking to be $35.7B and Iphone revenue to be $6.7B! That is huge! 2010E revenue is to be $13.3B for the iPhone alone! And we haven't even started getting into China or North Korea with the phone, talk about amazing. Currently with 0% share in China and only 4% share in the USA, Apple can definetly grow. Also, another big kicker here - exclusivity expiration is soon. The AT&T exclusivity is not only in USA but they have exclusive agreements globally in Canada, Germany, Spain, and Japan. So if Apple picks up new carriers, they "could" do this globally, which could boost sales and profits dramatically! 2. The New Ipods are very good, the question is how well they will sell. It's tough to say and we need to see the quarter first - however, I believe with the relatively cheap price point for what you get (Video Camera, Podometer, Radio, like 4,000 songs of memory) the value is good - I just bought one last week and really enjoy it. 3. Great balance sheet. Apple has over $47 in net cash per share, so anotherwards, 25% of the current stock price is just cash alone. That being said, it has the growth to move higher. 4. New Products: There is a rumor that Apple will be revealing a new "Tablet" computer that acts as a Netbook and should be released by March. From my sources, the price point will be $800 and have touch screen capabilities. The innovation put into this device, could draw professional services, like hospitals due to the small size and easy computing. New Macs are supposed to debut soon as well. 5. Estimates seem low - The consensus is around $10 EPS adjusted for FY 2010. These numbers do not include possibilities of: 1) mulitple carriers 2) new products like the Tablet or MACS 3) new products from the APP store 4) any new iPhone 6. There are some cost reduction schemes also in play: 1) the new GAAP accounting rule changes the way Ipods and Iphones are valued, which will raise both revenues and profit. Secondly, they are working on strategies to reduction iPhone hardware and service plans. All of this will can help improve gross margins. All in all, I will be in and out of the name but this will be my top position going forward. It is a tad rich but the dips must be bought and i will post all of my Apple trades. The risks include: 1) Steve Jobs health 2) Competition from RIMM, PALM, and MOT. 3) Being able to meet demand 4) staying with only one carrier. I think the company can earn $11 to $12 EPS next year (analysts are looking for $9.70-$10). If you use an historical average PE multiple of 25x earnings you get (11 x 25 = $275 Price Target). This is all my opinion and $11-12 is extremly agressive and they will need to catch a few of these catalysts. However, the risk is the consumer. Unemployment is a high risk and consumer spending could crush the stock down to the $120-$150 range if spending is very weak. This is strictly my opinion, not recommendation advice, all rights are reserved by RF.
AAPL
52 week high!
Other notes, holding everything, very disappointed in FLR but don't want to book a loss. Will hold it out a tad longer. Not buying here, may sell some stuff - I will be focusing on options throughout the new few months
NTRI- massive short squeeze LOL
FDO - reports tomorrow, its cheap
Other notes, holding everything, very disappointed in FLR but don't want to book a loss. Will hold it out a tad longer. Not buying here, may sell some stuff - I will be focusing on options throughout the new few months
NTRI- massive short squeeze LOL
FDO - reports tomorrow, its cheap
Monday, October 5, 2009
Market Outlook - Oct 5th
Future are indicating a tiny bounce; however, we have some key earnings this weekend:
Tuesday: Yum Brands (YUM) and Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG)
Wednesday: Family Dollar (FDO), Costco (COST), Aloca (AA), and Monsanto (MON)
Thursday: Marriott (Mar) and Pepsi Co (PEP)
I will hold my Pepsi shares through earnings and will increase my position on any weakness. Other than that, I am about 40% and will add more on dips then sell some of these loser stocks, like HON and build position in stocks I know and like more - in terms of upside potential and better risk rewards.
Tuesday: Yum Brands (YUM) and Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG)
Wednesday: Family Dollar (FDO), Costco (COST), Aloca (AA), and Monsanto (MON)
Thursday: Marriott (Mar) and Pepsi Co (PEP)
I will hold my Pepsi shares through earnings and will increase my position on any weakness. Other than that, I am about 40% and will add more on dips then sell some of these loser stocks, like HON and build position in stocks I know and like more - in terms of upside potential and better risk rewards.
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