Friday, August 7, 2009
RF Sell HBAN
Sold all for 11% again
Stop was 4.73
As you know I am a early seller but oh well I am happy with profit. HIG still pisses me off
Stop was 4.73
As you know I am a early seller but oh well I am happy with profit. HIG still pisses me off
HBAN
We win again
Will sell some close to 5
I sold 60% of my QID and all my bgz. I am down on this glorouis day! A spec day trade that I did not post killed me.
This market is strong. All I can say
Will sell some close to 5
I sold 60% of my QID and all my bgz. I am down on this glorouis day! A spec day trade that I did not post killed me.
This market is strong. All I can say
RF Buy FCX and VALE
Have orders to buy both at open
50 vale
20 FCX
Smaller size but I want to hold these for a long time. I will write on them over weekend.
50 vale
20 FCX
Smaller size but I want to hold these for a long time. I will write on them over weekend.
jobs number good
Maybe so but the number was only fair. Banks are still good here but Mr market seems to have priced this in, at least from my variant viewpoint
Market Outlook
Today is it..the biggest day for the stock market of the year…the jobs report!
Once a month of a Friday, we have a report but this is the real one, as money managers who have missed this entire really, by doubting it, are now forced with a decision to push “all-in”. 8:30a is going to make or break the market. From people I am talking with, they are saying a 3-5% move on the indices either way, pending on the results. Frankly, I don’t know if they are right, but I will say, it’s the key for this market rally. If we dip, I will instantly go with ultrashorts via, TWM, SRS, FAZ, etc. If we look good, I will sell my BGZ and buy commodities related names of quality – like a FCX, PCU, BHP, AA, ACH, RTP…and well as banks, HBAN, C, BAC, or I will short the FAZ (high risk, research first) as being my top picks for right now!
This report is bigger than the other reports or other government programs because this will be used as the guide to see if this economic recovery is in fact “real”. If not, fear can quickly spread and we may see a HUGE selloff. Stocks will the largest run ups will be the first to go. So banks, autos, REITs will be crushed. If bad, I will probably sell F to preserve gains and buy back at lower levels. I will post everything and more than likely will be active in pre-market.
Once a month of a Friday, we have a report but this is the real one, as money managers who have missed this entire really, by doubting it, are now forced with a decision to push “all-in”. 8:30a is going to make or break the market. From people I am talking with, they are saying a 3-5% move on the indices either way, pending on the results. Frankly, I don’t know if they are right, but I will say, it’s the key for this market rally. If we dip, I will instantly go with ultrashorts via, TWM, SRS, FAZ, etc. If we look good, I will sell my BGZ and buy commodities related names of quality – like a FCX, PCU, BHP, AA, ACH, RTP…and well as banks, HBAN, C, BAC, or I will short the FAZ (high risk, research first) as being my top picks for right now!
This report is bigger than the other reports or other government programs because this will be used as the guide to see if this economic recovery is in fact “real”. If not, fear can quickly spread and we may see a HUGE selloff. Stocks will the largest run ups will be the first to go. So banks, autos, REITs will be crushed. If bad, I will probably sell F to preserve gains and buy back at lower levels. I will post everything and more than likely will be active in pre-market.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Portfolio Setup
Here is how I am going into the job report, numbers reflect both portfolios combined:
Cash 45%, Short 32%, Long 23%
RF Sell SKF
SOLD IT ALL IN AH AT 7:42P AT 29.65
I WAS SO NET SHORT THAT IF WE HAD A GOOD NUMBER, I WOULD BE DEAD TOMORROW.
I AM NET SHORT BUT BARELY
I WAS SO NET SHORT THAT IF WE HAD A GOOD NUMBER, I WOULD BE DEAD TOMORROW.
I AM NET SHORT BUT BARELY
Tomorrow is the big day!
After talking with people and listening to many money managers, there is no one short at all in this market, no one!
Tomorrows job number at 830a will be make or break. If its terrible, the shorts will raid the market. If not, we might fade it, but more than likely we close up big! There is so much cash on sidelines, any hint its over they will buy everything.
My view is that the president has already seen the numbers and has pretty much hinted that we are not out of the woods. Then again that is my opinion.
I have add to my shorts agressively today and will hold them overnight and pull trigger to sell in premarket if I am wrong.
SRS and SKF or FAZ can move huge if we are down tomorrow but vice versa can tank hard on good news.
If I was a bull, I would be loading up on CMG or other retail that is heavily shorted.
If I was a bear, I would short REITs agreesively.
The bottom line that you can either take your bets on a side or just sit in high cash and wait it out, which is the smart thing to do
Tomorrows job number at 830a will be make or break. If its terrible, the shorts will raid the market. If not, we might fade it, but more than likely we close up big! There is so much cash on sidelines, any hint its over they will buy everything.
My view is that the president has already seen the numbers and has pretty much hinted that we are not out of the woods. Then again that is my opinion.
I have add to my shorts agressively today and will hold them overnight and pull trigger to sell in premarket if I am wrong.
SRS and SKF or FAZ can move huge if we are down tomorrow but vice versa can tank hard on good news.
If I was a bull, I would be loading up on CMG or other retail that is heavily shorted.
If I was a bear, I would short REITs agreesively.
The bottom line that you can either take your bets on a side or just sit in high cash and wait it out, which is the smart thing to do
BAC
It looks like we win again here but I believe this still has good upside.
This is the best large cap bank for the buck, hence the huge ramp in price. This is also a great play, along with WFC on housing. I believe BAC will be a $20 dollar stock in a few months and by sometime next year will be in mid or high 20s. The worst case for the stock is $11 from my analysis. So at $17 there, shorterm there is 6 down 3 or 4 up but in a 15 month view 6 down 10 up.
Hban and key are my favorite speculative banks.
This is the best large cap bank for the buck, hence the huge ramp in price. This is also a great play, along with WFC on housing. I believe BAC will be a $20 dollar stock in a few months and by sometime next year will be in mid or high 20s. The worst case for the stock is $11 from my analysis. So at $17 there, shorterm there is 6 down 3 or 4 up but in a 15 month view 6 down 10 up.
Hban and key are my favorite speculative banks.
strong market
I would not buy these ultrashorts, its pointless. You might with a bad job number tomorrow but honestly, this market wants to go to 1050 and no one wants to short at all
Who can blame them when AIG goes up from 6 bucks to 27? The short squeezes are insane...
I will wait to 10a but more than likely will sell my skf hedge and buy in premarket tomorrow morning
Who can blame them when AIG goes up from 6 bucks to 27? The short squeezes are insane...
I will wait to 10a but more than likely will sell my skf hedge and buy in premarket tomorrow morning
Outlook/CSCO
Well, CSCO's conference call was great for the first 10 minutes then John Chambers issued next qtr revenue guidanance that was very weak, so hence the AH selloff. On a positive note, he said no one could determine a bottom but this was the first quarter where sequential orders came in at a steady pace.
In other news, Ortbitz (OWW) got upgraded by Barclays today to a strong buy and at $6 price target. I hope someone still has it out there in the blogosphere.
I need to pour through Prudentials (PRU) numbers but the quarter was good; however, guidance seemed a bit weak. I will sell this at the open from the $33ish purchase, for solid gain..
In other news, Ortbitz (OWW) got upgraded by Barclays today to a strong buy and at $6 price target. I hope someone still has it out there in the blogosphere.
I need to pour through Prudentials (PRU) numbers but the quarter was good; however, guidance seemed a bit weak. I will sell this at the open from the $33ish purchase, for solid gain..
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
RF Position Update: EXM
Houston - we have a big problem and that was the messed up share offering after the bell today. The offerings, as far as I know, has not been priced yet; however, will be rather dilutive to common shareholders like myself. This is why homework is VITAL in every holding and in order to make serious money, homework is a must. So let me address both the quarter and the share offering:
Quarter: The quarter EPS seemed very strong; however, it is very difficult to compare it to last year's numbers due to some many variables. Sequential revenue drove better margins due to the firm's exposure to short-term contract exposure. I adjusted for noncash amortization revenue, from the firm's acquistion of Quintana Maritime (rival) and EXM's top line slid 25% YoY (year over year). Operating expenses were up 2%, which is not too bad, considering most of their cost struture seems relatively fixed. Adjusted margins fell from 42% to 20%. The contract structure is a key to the margin. That could another complete discussion but I do not have to get into deep detail because only CPAs and shipping experts would want to hear my views on that. In short, EXM carries high areas of undercertainity, due to the spot-market focus of their business model, as well as the fleet line. The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) is a good measure to view as it is the global shipping index of sorts.
Offering: The biggest problem with EXM is the debt load. This is just not a random stock you can just buy and think "oh it was at $9 last week and now it's $7, let me buy it and make $2". It is not possible with this firm. A company like MSFT, yes maybe if the stock dips to $22 and you buy it for a trade to $24 for 2 bucks, it works but not EXM because too many of the variables are tied to daily flucuations that need to be understood and researched. Anyways, one challenge facing the firm is that it faced $18-22 milion in quarterly deb principal payments over the next 8 quarters and the firm does not have tons of cash on hand. I don't have the numbers in front of me but I am guestimating $200m of cash on the balance sheet. Most of their assets are the actual ships, which depreciation, so when you value the firm, you must take that into account. So with that debt load, can becomes an issue, especially if we have a double-dip recession and China/other emerging markets reduce commoditity imports. The second problems is that EXM has 3 ships on order for 2010 that will require $100 MILLION in capital expenditure money. From my calculations, EXM had huge profits but only average $35M per quarter in cash flow (operating) therefore, they was not way they can meet contractual commitments without issuing stock or selling vessels. Anotherwards, they have too much debt and they can issue stock to screw over shareholders -OR- sell vessels that could cost them revenues and profits. I am being rather blunt about the first but the ownership of the company becomes dilutive and the stock price drops unless institutional money gets happy about liquidity risks being taken away and decide to buy the stock. I don't think this will be the case, as they can buy solid tankers like Nordic Tanker or Frontline (FRO) and get a oil tanker shipper that yields 3-5% dividends.
Needless to say I am disappointed for leaving a lot of money on the table but I have a good profit cushion. I just don't know how long these shippers can keep up doing well. I believe the BDI will be very volatile in the coming quarters. I am still long the name and will post my decisions live time as always....we are in this game together.
Quarter: The quarter EPS seemed very strong; however, it is very difficult to compare it to last year's numbers due to some many variables. Sequential revenue drove better margins due to the firm's exposure to short-term contract exposure. I adjusted for noncash amortization revenue, from the firm's acquistion of Quintana Maritime (rival) and EXM's top line slid 25% YoY (year over year). Operating expenses were up 2%, which is not too bad, considering most of their cost struture seems relatively fixed. Adjusted margins fell from 42% to 20%. The contract structure is a key to the margin. That could another complete discussion but I do not have to get into deep detail because only CPAs and shipping experts would want to hear my views on that. In short, EXM carries high areas of undercertainity, due to the spot-market focus of their business model, as well as the fleet line. The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) is a good measure to view as it is the global shipping index of sorts.
Offering: The biggest problem with EXM is the debt load. This is just not a random stock you can just buy and think "oh it was at $9 last week and now it's $7, let me buy it and make $2". It is not possible with this firm. A company like MSFT, yes maybe if the stock dips to $22 and you buy it for a trade to $24 for 2 bucks, it works but not EXM because too many of the variables are tied to daily flucuations that need to be understood and researched. Anyways, one challenge facing the firm is that it faced $18-22 milion in quarterly deb principal payments over the next 8 quarters and the firm does not have tons of cash on hand. I don't have the numbers in front of me but I am guestimating $200m of cash on the balance sheet. Most of their assets are the actual ships, which depreciation, so when you value the firm, you must take that into account. So with that debt load, can becomes an issue, especially if we have a double-dip recession and China/other emerging markets reduce commoditity imports. The second problems is that EXM has 3 ships on order for 2010 that will require $100 MILLION in capital expenditure money. From my calculations, EXM had huge profits but only average $35M per quarter in cash flow (operating) therefore, they was not way they can meet contractual commitments without issuing stock or selling vessels. Anotherwards, they have too much debt and they can issue stock to screw over shareholders -OR- sell vessels that could cost them revenues and profits. I am being rather blunt about the first but the ownership of the company becomes dilutive and the stock price drops unless institutional money gets happy about liquidity risks being taken away and decide to buy the stock. I don't think this will be the case, as they can buy solid tankers like Nordic Tanker or Frontline (FRO) and get a oil tanker shipper that yields 3-5% dividends.
Needless to say I am disappointed for leaving a lot of money on the table but I have a good profit cushion. I just don't know how long these shippers can keep up doing well. I believe the BDI will be very volatile in the coming quarters. I am still long the name and will post my decisions live time as always....we are in this game together.
RIMM - CRAMER REVISITED 6/18/09
Video 1: When Stock was $68ish in mid-late June (I told yall to remember this lol)
Video 2: Now, as of last night on Mad Money's Lightning Round:
Research in Motion
Cramer admitted that he’s been wrong about RIMM recently, but he recommended buying the stock on any pullback!
My thoughts on this classic call: "We win again"
OWW
Oh, the memories.....i think we nabbed this one right at the bottom!
http://trade247.blogspot.com/2009/04/rf-position-update_22.html
http://trade247.blogspot.com/2009/04/rf-position-update_22.html
follower email
Got email about skf and price, I paid 30.80 and am down and highly pissed.
My theory is I have big bank exposure and don't want to sell them and at same time don't want to lose rich gains! The problem I am facing now is that I am cancelling out gains in them, so I am not too happy with that.
Due to this overbought state, I just want to be safe rather than sorry. I may sell this quickly though.
My theory is I have big bank exposure and don't want to sell them and at same time don't want to lose rich gains! The problem I am facing now is that I am cancelling out gains in them, so I am not too happy with that.
Due to this overbought state, I just want to be safe rather than sorry. I may sell this quickly though.
EXM
Of course they were suppose to report after bell and do it before the open. Classic move and the stock is ripped in pieces. I'm still up huge but 1000 bucks washed away pisses me off, I have to admit
As for market, banks are it. If they give up, we will selloff 2% with ease
As for market, banks are it. If they give up, we will selloff 2% with ease
RF Buys and Sells
Sold out of DRYS at 6.69 for tiny gain
I bought WY 50 shares at 36.75 for long term play. I think its 50 if housing as bottomed
I bought 50 shares of SKF to hedge my BAC and rest of my financial longs
I bought WY 50 shares at 36.75 for long term play. I think its 50 if housing as bottomed
I bought 50 shares of SKF to hedge my BAC and rest of my financial longs
RF Position Update: F (July Auto Sales)
(Click each to enlarge - Source: Barclays Capital, Ward's Automotive, F & GM Company Data)Market Outlook - Aug 5th
It looks as if the rally continues; however, the next few days will be vital in terms if we pullback or extend with another “leg” higher. Two key events will be happening:
1. CSCO earnings Wednesday after the bell
2. Jobless claims on Friday at 8:30a
The market could pullback 4-5% in one day on a bad number or it could tripper a swing of new cash that could take us quickly to 1,050.
Looking at yesterday’s market action, REITs and Banks were the top gains because these are the only sectors, where multiples are truly not expanded beyond belief. If you are still short the SKF, just use trailing stops. I have many complex trades I do, like collars, put spreads, etc. but I really don’t want to post because they’re high risk and not all win, so I don’t want hurt anyone, in case some people don’t read the bottom disclaimer below and follow me into trades…then again I know no one does that.
The big boy, EXM, reports after the bell. I loaded with a 1,000 shares, so it will be interesting to see results with 16% short interest. It normally shoots 6%+ either way, during the times I have traded this one before; however, will ride the motorcycle through the rings of fire.
As for my views on the market, I am not really surprised at all with the huge ramp. It is really funny though, to see people 3 weeks ago, when the market was at 870 (while we went all in long) say we were going to 700, now those same people say we are going to 1,200 on the S&P. This is a prime example of why mutual funds don’t make investors money – it’s all psychology – the market is there to serve you, not to guide you. If you remember that quote until you die, you will be rich, I would be large amounts of money on it. I mean we do have some good earnings reports but all the beats are on the profit front, not the revenue front, so in my eyes they are not that great but rather these were expected.
As for the cash for clunkers programs, I personally like it as a Ford shareholder but in reality I think it’s a very dangerous bet and makes a double-dip recession more probable. “Well RF, how is that possible?” It’s very simple. I do think this $3B was spent more wisely than the AIG or other BS our gov’t has spent BUT the many problem is that it is temporary. I just reviewed the data, so lets review:
1. The top 5 cars being purchased are: Ford Fusion, Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, Prius, and Corolla. What seems weird about that? Well let’s think. 80% of the money being spent here is going to another country’s pocket! How dumb is that? We are paying for people to get new cars, who may not even be able to afford them, and the most of the money is going to countries that own are debt! Brilliant.
2. Secondly, the problem is that it is pushing orders up. People who were thinking about buying cars in 2010 are now buying them now in 2009, which is making the 2009 numbers seems great; however, these orders are being pushed up; which leaves 2010 auto sales to be worse and more chances of sales misses, production cuts, layoffs, etc.
Again, I think it is a risky and find of dumb bet; however, I will say this, I like it more than the AIG and other bailout crap they done…and to be honest, the program seems to be working! I just rather see them give everyone at $690 gift card (it cost the same) and let them go spend it wherever they want. I think that would be more useful.
Enough of that, I will be looking at names in commodities sector, as well as names tied to housing, particular industrials. If I find what I want, at the right price, I will post the buys. Good day!
1. CSCO earnings Wednesday after the bell
2. Jobless claims on Friday at 8:30a
The market could pullback 4-5% in one day on a bad number or it could tripper a swing of new cash that could take us quickly to 1,050.
Looking at yesterday’s market action, REITs and Banks were the top gains because these are the only sectors, where multiples are truly not expanded beyond belief. If you are still short the SKF, just use trailing stops. I have many complex trades I do, like collars, put spreads, etc. but I really don’t want to post because they’re high risk and not all win, so I don’t want hurt anyone, in case some people don’t read the bottom disclaimer below and follow me into trades…then again I know no one does that.
The big boy, EXM, reports after the bell. I loaded with a 1,000 shares, so it will be interesting to see results with 16% short interest. It normally shoots 6%+ either way, during the times I have traded this one before; however, will ride the motorcycle through the rings of fire.
As for my views on the market, I am not really surprised at all with the huge ramp. It is really funny though, to see people 3 weeks ago, when the market was at 870 (while we went all in long) say we were going to 700, now those same people say we are going to 1,200 on the S&P. This is a prime example of why mutual funds don’t make investors money – it’s all psychology – the market is there to serve you, not to guide you. If you remember that quote until you die, you will be rich, I would be large amounts of money on it. I mean we do have some good earnings reports but all the beats are on the profit front, not the revenue front, so in my eyes they are not that great but rather these were expected.
As for the cash for clunkers programs, I personally like it as a Ford shareholder but in reality I think it’s a very dangerous bet and makes a double-dip recession more probable. “Well RF, how is that possible?” It’s very simple. I do think this $3B was spent more wisely than the AIG or other BS our gov’t has spent BUT the many problem is that it is temporary. I just reviewed the data, so lets review:
1. The top 5 cars being purchased are: Ford Fusion, Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, Prius, and Corolla. What seems weird about that? Well let’s think. 80% of the money being spent here is going to another country’s pocket! How dumb is that? We are paying for people to get new cars, who may not even be able to afford them, and the most of the money is going to countries that own are debt! Brilliant.
2. Secondly, the problem is that it is pushing orders up. People who were thinking about buying cars in 2010 are now buying them now in 2009, which is making the 2009 numbers seems great; however, these orders are being pushed up; which leaves 2010 auto sales to be worse and more chances of sales misses, production cuts, layoffs, etc.
Again, I think it is a risky and find of dumb bet; however, I will say this, I like it more than the AIG and other bailout crap they done…and to be honest, the program seems to be working! I just rather see them give everyone at $690 gift card (it cost the same) and let them go spend it wherever they want. I think that would be more useful.
Enough of that, I will be looking at names in commodities sector, as well as names tied to housing, particular industrials. If I find what I want, at the right price, I will post the buys. Good day!
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
RF Portfolio Update
Portfolio 2 is unchanged, scroll to Saturday to see the holdings.
Portfolio 1 has been updated:
70% Cash
30% Long
AMD (Cost $3.92)
ENTR (Cost $2.40)
SLM (Cost $8.64)
DRYS (Cost $6.55)
PRU (Cost $33.90)
LVLT (Cost $1.25)
HBAN (Cost $4.26)
I will likely start adding housing related plays tomorrow, as housing seems to have bottoms due to price discovery being found.
Portfolio 1 has been updated:
70% Cash
30% Long
AMD (Cost $3.92)
ENTR (Cost $2.40)
SLM (Cost $8.64)
DRYS (Cost $6.55)
PRU (Cost $33.90)
LVLT (Cost $1.25)
HBAN (Cost $4.26)
I will likely start adding housing related plays tomorrow, as housing seems to have bottoms due to price discovery being found.
CNBC is for losers
Look, I am telling you, if you trade off CNBC you will lose. Ignore them assholes and follow people who do their homework.
Case and point: Karen Finerman on Fast Money - who manages $400M hedgefund (she sucks because she is always wrong) recommended all week to buy WFMI puts in SIZE ahead of earnings....they just blew the numbers out of the water and the stock is up 14% in AH.
Nice job Karen, you dickweed!
Case and point: Karen Finerman on Fast Money - who manages $400M hedgefund (she sucks because she is always wrong) recommended all week to buy WFMI puts in SIZE ahead of earnings....they just blew the numbers out of the water and the stock is up 14% in AH.
Nice job Karen, you dickweed!
BPOP
I have a trigger buy to buy 1,000 more at $1.42 ....... that is my breakout point, resistance til then!
OWW
Old school RF Favorite Orbitz ripppppppppping north of $4! Bought this bad boy at $1.48 back in April! Watched it grow from a child to a man!
pullback
That was one hell of a pullback LOL
I am looking at commodities firms to buy. I just cannot catch any dips!
I am looking at commodities firms to buy. I just cannot catch any dips!
EXM
Reports tomorrow after the bell, unless management teta to switch, which I doubt.
Will hold into earnings and may buy calls for a gamble
Also if you are still in TTM, please run it in. At 8 I said it was going to 12 and sold it for a 4% gain,,, hell if the damn thing isn't going to 12. Enjoy the 50% gain!
Will hold into earnings and may buy calls for a gamble
Also if you are still in TTM, please run it in. At 8 I said it was going to 12 and sold it for a 4% gain,,, hell if the damn thing isn't going to 12. Enjoy the 50% gain!
Upgrades and Downgrades
Atmel downgraded at Goldman8:21 AM EDT Goldman downgraded ATML to Neutral from Buy. Estimates for FY09 raised to ($0.05) from ($0.10). The firm believes that the market is fully valuing the co.'s strong microcontroller franchise and that restructuring catalysts for the disposal of the ASIC business have now passed. Maintained $4.50 target price.
CBS downgraded at Natixis7:45 AM EDT CBS was downgraded Hold to Sell, Natixis Bleichroder said. $6 price target. Valuation call, as the company has more advertising dependency than its peers.
DISH Network upgraded at Credit Suisse7:49 AM EDT Credit Suisse upgraded DISH to Outperform from Neutral. The firm believes that the co. is nearing an inflection point as its fundamentals are stabilizing after the challenges it has faced over the past 18 months. Increased price target to $22 from $18.
Human Genome upgraded at ThinkEquity7:42 AM EDT HGSI was upgraded from Accumulate to Buy, ThinkEquity said. $26 price target. Benlysta estimates are too conservative.
Hologic estimates, target boosted at Barclays8:06 AM EDT HOLX estimates increased through 2010, Barclays Capital said. On the other hand, sales uncertainty remains. Equal-weight rating and new $15 price target.
Hologic downgraded at Citigroup7:35 AM EDT HOLX was downgraded from Buy to Hold, Citigroup said $16 price target. Valuation call, as the company lacks near-term catalysts.
Lamar Advertising downgraded at Goldman8:23 AM EDT Goldman downgraded LAMR to Sell from Neutral to reflect a more risk than reward profile. The firm sees more favorable opportunities within their coverage group and believes the co. is fully valued. Maintained $15 price target.
Savvis upgraded at Morgan Stanley7:59 AM EDT SVVS upgraded at Morgan Stanley. Rating raised to Overweight from Equal-weight. Establishes $21 price target. 2009 EPS estimates raised to -$0.11 from -$0.29.
WMS Industries upgraded at JP Morgan8:05 AM EDT WMS upgraded at JP Morgan. Rating raised to Overweight from Neutral. Price target raised to $43 from $29. Fiscal 2010 EPS estimates raised to $1.83 from $1.73.
WMS Industries target boosted at Merrill/BofA7:58 AM EDT WMS target increased to $41, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. Company realize higher gaming margins last quarter. Buy rating.
Weyerhaeuser downgraded at Credit Suisse8:15 AM EDT WY downgraded at Credit Suisse. Rating lowered to Underperform from Neutral. Maintains $34 target price and 2009 EPS estimates of -$2.02.
Back to Top
STOCK COMMENTS / EPS CHANGES
Applied Materials target boosted at Merrill/BofA7:57 AM EDT AMAT shares now seen reaching $14.50, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. Sales should improve to merely being flat in the July quarter, driven by silicon and services. Neutral rating.
Caterpillar target increased at Merrill/BofA7:48 AM EDT Shares of CAT now seen reaching $52, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. Cost-cutting should sustain business until demand materially improves. Buy rating.
Clorox Company numbers raised at Goldman8:24 AM EDT Goldman raised its FY09 estimates on CLX to $4.35 from $4.33. The co. experienced significant gross margin expansion and is expected to beat FY10 guidance. Maintained Buy rating.
Clorox target increased at Barclays8:10 AM EDT Shares of CLX now seen reaching $59, according to Barclays Capital. Company posted a strong quarter, with high earnings quality. Equal-weight rating.
Cablevision target raised at Goldman8:21 AM EDT Goldman raised its target price on CVC to $23 from $22 to reflect management's plan of spinning off MSG. Estimates for FY09 also raised to $0.89 from $0.85. Maintained Neutral rating.
Dow Chemical target raised at Goldman8:22 AM EDT Goldman said it is raising its target on DOW to $26 from $23. The co. has been able to wring out fixed costs and acquisition synergies at an accelerated rate, thus driving margin expansion sooner than expected and beating their recent quarters consensus estimates. Estimates raised for FY09 to $0.25 from ($0.07). Maintained Buy rating
Emergency Medical Services target raised at Goldman8:22 AM EDT Goldman raised EMS target price to $40 from $30. Estimates for FY09 raised to $2.40 from $2.11. The increase of numbers was to reflect the $0.14 2Q beat and operating leverage on a raised outlook for EmCare contract wins. Maintained Neutral rating.
Ford Motor target raised at Merrill/BofA7:47 AM EDT Shares of F now seen reaching $11, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. Company should continue to win back market share and has a relatively strong balance sheet. Buy rating. Buy rating.
Herbalife numbers boosted at Merrill/BofA7:53 AM EDT HLF estimates increased to $39, according to Merrill Lynch/Bank of America. Company posted a strong quarter and is facing easy upcoming comps. Buy rating.
Humana numbers raised at Goldman8:22 AM EDT Goldman raised its numbers on HUM to $32 from $28 to reflect better visibility. In 2010 the co. is expected to expand its MA-PFFS footprint even as competitors exit the product line, lower operating cost reductions, add a large MA group contract along with a multi-year CMS contract, seek to overturn the recent Dept. of Defense decision to terminate the co.'s South Region TRICARE health administration contract, and grow its MA enrollment. Maintained Neutral rating.
Humana estimates lowered at UBS8:19 AM EDT HUM 2010 estimate cut to reflect potential Medicare margin pressure. Neutral rating and $32 price target.
Humana target raised at Credit Suisse7:49 AM EDT Credit Suisse raised its target on HUM to $40 from $35 to reflect the impact of administrative cost savings and new contracts. Maintained Outperform rating.
Humana target increased at Citigroup7:37 AM EDT Shares of HUM now seen reaching $53, Citigroup said. Company has grown its book value. Buy rating.
Kraft Foods numbers boosted at Morgan Stanley8:31 AM EDT Shares of KFT now seen reaching $27, Morgan Stanley said. Estimates also increased, to reflect recent earnings power. That said, the current risk/reward in the stock appears unfavorable. Equal-weight rating.
Masco estimates boosted at Morgan Stanley8:33 AM EDT MAS estimates raised through 2011, Morgan Stanley said. Cost controls should help margins for the eventual recovery. Equal-weight rating.
MGM MIRAGE estimates raised at Goldman8:24 AM EDT Goldman raised its FY09 estimates to ($0.29) from ($0.38). Cites signs of stabilization, expectations of higher margins due to cost cuts, lowered D&A, and declining interest expense assumptions. Maintained Neutral rating.
MGM Mirage numbers raised at Barclays8:11 AM EDT Shares of MGM now seen reaching $10, Barclays Capital said. Estimates also increased, to reflect a stabilizing environment. Equal-weight rating.
MGM Mirage target cut at Citigroup7:38 AM EDT Shares of MGM now seen reaching $6.55, Citigroup said. Increased supply from City Center could cannibalize other properties. Sell rating.
Marathon Oil numbers lowered at Barclays8:05 AM EDT Shares of MRO now seen reaching $36, according to Barclays Capital. Estimates cut also through 2010, to reflect weak US production results and high refining costs. Equal-weight rating.
Noble Energy target raised at FBR7:19 AM EDT NBL target boosted to $70 a share, Friedman, Billings Ramsey said. Company should benefit from its Israeli gas discoveries. Market Perform rating.
3PAR estimates raised at Goldman8:25 AM EDT Goldman raised its FY09 estimates on PAR to ($0.08) from ($0.09) based on growth in the future as the firm believes hardware will be the first category to rebound with better enterprise IT spending. Maintained Neutral rating.
Principal Financial target increased at FBR7:21 AM EDT PFG target boosted to $34, Friedman, Billings Ramsey said. Company posted a strong quarter, driven by cost savings. Outperform rating.
PharMerica Corp. numbers raised at Credit Suisse7:50 AM EDT Credit Suisse raised its numbers on PMC to $21 from $20. The co. has lowered its D&A, interest, and tax rates which have played into their favor. They are also seeking higher utilization rates and cutting down their bad debt reserves to improve their margins. Maintained Neutral rating.
Republic Services target raised at Credit Suisse7:49 AM EDT Credit Suisse raised its target on RSG to $30 from $26. Cites strong execution on cost synergies and stabilization of volumes in waste. Maintained Outperform rating.
Molson Coors Brewing target raised at Goldman8:23 AM EDT Goldman raised its target on TAP to $53 from $51. The co. will be able to flow much of the $500 million merger synergies through to investors, spending will be limited due to its duopolistic structure and cash generation of its key competitors, and valuation remains attractive at this juncture. Estimates raised for FY09 to $3.45 from $3.38. Maintained Buy rating.
Molson Coors numbers raised at Merrill/BofA7:54 AM EDT TAP estimates increased through 2010, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. Company is seeing better pricing and cutting costs. Neutral rating and new $50 price target.
Time Warner Cable estimates lowered at Goldman8:24 AM EDT Goldman lowered its FY09 estimates to $2.88 from $2.92 as YOY revenue generating unit (RGU) trends have not shown an improvement from Q2 so far and posted a 70% decline in RGU net add trends YOY. Maintained Sell rating.
Texas Roadhouse target raised at Credit Suisse7:50 AM EDT Credit Suisse said it is going to raised TXRH numbers to $12 from $10.50. Cites more favorable commodity trends, partially offset by a weaker comp outlook and associated deleverage. Maintained Neutral rating.
Weight Watchers estimates raised at UBS8:17 AM EDT WTW estimates increased through 2010, UBS said. Company seeing higher attendance trends. Neutral rating and $26 price target.
CBS downgraded at Natixis7:45 AM EDT CBS was downgraded Hold to Sell, Natixis Bleichroder said. $6 price target. Valuation call, as the company has more advertising dependency than its peers.
DISH Network upgraded at Credit Suisse7:49 AM EDT Credit Suisse upgraded DISH to Outperform from Neutral. The firm believes that the co. is nearing an inflection point as its fundamentals are stabilizing after the challenges it has faced over the past 18 months. Increased price target to $22 from $18.
Human Genome upgraded at ThinkEquity7:42 AM EDT HGSI was upgraded from Accumulate to Buy, ThinkEquity said. $26 price target. Benlysta estimates are too conservative.
Hologic estimates, target boosted at Barclays8:06 AM EDT HOLX estimates increased through 2010, Barclays Capital said. On the other hand, sales uncertainty remains. Equal-weight rating and new $15 price target.
Hologic downgraded at Citigroup7:35 AM EDT HOLX was downgraded from Buy to Hold, Citigroup said $16 price target. Valuation call, as the company lacks near-term catalysts.
Lamar Advertising downgraded at Goldman8:23 AM EDT Goldman downgraded LAMR to Sell from Neutral to reflect a more risk than reward profile. The firm sees more favorable opportunities within their coverage group and believes the co. is fully valued. Maintained $15 price target.
Savvis upgraded at Morgan Stanley7:59 AM EDT SVVS upgraded at Morgan Stanley. Rating raised to Overweight from Equal-weight. Establishes $21 price target. 2009 EPS estimates raised to -$0.11 from -$0.29.
WMS Industries upgraded at JP Morgan8:05 AM EDT WMS upgraded at JP Morgan. Rating raised to Overweight from Neutral. Price target raised to $43 from $29. Fiscal 2010 EPS estimates raised to $1.83 from $1.73.
WMS Industries target boosted at Merrill/BofA7:58 AM EDT WMS target increased to $41, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. Company realize higher gaming margins last quarter. Buy rating.
Weyerhaeuser downgraded at Credit Suisse8:15 AM EDT WY downgraded at Credit Suisse. Rating lowered to Underperform from Neutral. Maintains $34 target price and 2009 EPS estimates of -$2.02.
Back to Top
STOCK COMMENTS / EPS CHANGES
Applied Materials target boosted at Merrill/BofA7:57 AM EDT AMAT shares now seen reaching $14.50, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. Sales should improve to merely being flat in the July quarter, driven by silicon and services. Neutral rating.
Caterpillar target increased at Merrill/BofA7:48 AM EDT Shares of CAT now seen reaching $52, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. Cost-cutting should sustain business until demand materially improves. Buy rating.
Clorox Company numbers raised at Goldman8:24 AM EDT Goldman raised its FY09 estimates on CLX to $4.35 from $4.33. The co. experienced significant gross margin expansion and is expected to beat FY10 guidance. Maintained Buy rating.
Clorox target increased at Barclays8:10 AM EDT Shares of CLX now seen reaching $59, according to Barclays Capital. Company posted a strong quarter, with high earnings quality. Equal-weight rating.
Cablevision target raised at Goldman8:21 AM EDT Goldman raised its target price on CVC to $23 from $22 to reflect management's plan of spinning off MSG. Estimates for FY09 also raised to $0.89 from $0.85. Maintained Neutral rating.
Dow Chemical target raised at Goldman8:22 AM EDT Goldman said it is raising its target on DOW to $26 from $23. The co. has been able to wring out fixed costs and acquisition synergies at an accelerated rate, thus driving margin expansion sooner than expected and beating their recent quarters consensus estimates. Estimates raised for FY09 to $0.25 from ($0.07). Maintained Buy rating
Emergency Medical Services target raised at Goldman8:22 AM EDT Goldman raised EMS target price to $40 from $30. Estimates for FY09 raised to $2.40 from $2.11. The increase of numbers was to reflect the $0.14 2Q beat and operating leverage on a raised outlook for EmCare contract wins. Maintained Neutral rating.
Ford Motor target raised at Merrill/BofA7:47 AM EDT Shares of F now seen reaching $11, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. Company should continue to win back market share and has a relatively strong balance sheet. Buy rating. Buy rating.
Herbalife numbers boosted at Merrill/BofA7:53 AM EDT HLF estimates increased to $39, according to Merrill Lynch/Bank of America. Company posted a strong quarter and is facing easy upcoming comps. Buy rating.
Humana numbers raised at Goldman8:22 AM EDT Goldman raised its numbers on HUM to $32 from $28 to reflect better visibility. In 2010 the co. is expected to expand its MA-PFFS footprint even as competitors exit the product line, lower operating cost reductions, add a large MA group contract along with a multi-year CMS contract, seek to overturn the recent Dept. of Defense decision to terminate the co.'s South Region TRICARE health administration contract, and grow its MA enrollment. Maintained Neutral rating.
Humana estimates lowered at UBS8:19 AM EDT HUM 2010 estimate cut to reflect potential Medicare margin pressure. Neutral rating and $32 price target.
Humana target raised at Credit Suisse7:49 AM EDT Credit Suisse raised its target on HUM to $40 from $35 to reflect the impact of administrative cost savings and new contracts. Maintained Outperform rating.
Humana target increased at Citigroup7:37 AM EDT Shares of HUM now seen reaching $53, Citigroup said. Company has grown its book value. Buy rating.
Kraft Foods numbers boosted at Morgan Stanley8:31 AM EDT Shares of KFT now seen reaching $27, Morgan Stanley said. Estimates also increased, to reflect recent earnings power. That said, the current risk/reward in the stock appears unfavorable. Equal-weight rating.
Masco estimates boosted at Morgan Stanley8:33 AM EDT MAS estimates raised through 2011, Morgan Stanley said. Cost controls should help margins for the eventual recovery. Equal-weight rating.
MGM MIRAGE estimates raised at Goldman8:24 AM EDT Goldman raised its FY09 estimates to ($0.29) from ($0.38). Cites signs of stabilization, expectations of higher margins due to cost cuts, lowered D&A, and declining interest expense assumptions. Maintained Neutral rating.
MGM Mirage numbers raised at Barclays8:11 AM EDT Shares of MGM now seen reaching $10, Barclays Capital said. Estimates also increased, to reflect a stabilizing environment. Equal-weight rating.
MGM Mirage target cut at Citigroup7:38 AM EDT Shares of MGM now seen reaching $6.55, Citigroup said. Increased supply from City Center could cannibalize other properties. Sell rating.
Marathon Oil numbers lowered at Barclays8:05 AM EDT Shares of MRO now seen reaching $36, according to Barclays Capital. Estimates cut also through 2010, to reflect weak US production results and high refining costs. Equal-weight rating.
Noble Energy target raised at FBR7:19 AM EDT NBL target boosted to $70 a share, Friedman, Billings Ramsey said. Company should benefit from its Israeli gas discoveries. Market Perform rating.
3PAR estimates raised at Goldman8:25 AM EDT Goldman raised its FY09 estimates on PAR to ($0.08) from ($0.09) based on growth in the future as the firm believes hardware will be the first category to rebound with better enterprise IT spending. Maintained Neutral rating.
Principal Financial target increased at FBR7:21 AM EDT PFG target boosted to $34, Friedman, Billings Ramsey said. Company posted a strong quarter, driven by cost savings. Outperform rating.
PharMerica Corp. numbers raised at Credit Suisse7:50 AM EDT Credit Suisse raised its numbers on PMC to $21 from $20. The co. has lowered its D&A, interest, and tax rates which have played into their favor. They are also seeking higher utilization rates and cutting down their bad debt reserves to improve their margins. Maintained Neutral rating.
Republic Services target raised at Credit Suisse7:49 AM EDT Credit Suisse raised its target on RSG to $30 from $26. Cites strong execution on cost synergies and stabilization of volumes in waste. Maintained Outperform rating.
Molson Coors Brewing target raised at Goldman8:23 AM EDT Goldman raised its target on TAP to $53 from $51. The co. will be able to flow much of the $500 million merger synergies through to investors, spending will be limited due to its duopolistic structure and cash generation of its key competitors, and valuation remains attractive at this juncture. Estimates raised for FY09 to $3.45 from $3.38. Maintained Buy rating.
Molson Coors numbers raised at Merrill/BofA7:54 AM EDT TAP estimates increased through 2010, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America said. Company is seeing better pricing and cutting costs. Neutral rating and new $50 price target.
Time Warner Cable estimates lowered at Goldman8:24 AM EDT Goldman lowered its FY09 estimates to $2.88 from $2.92 as YOY revenue generating unit (RGU) trends have not shown an improvement from Q2 so far and posted a 70% decline in RGU net add trends YOY. Maintained Sell rating.
Texas Roadhouse target raised at Credit Suisse7:50 AM EDT Credit Suisse said it is going to raised TXRH numbers to $12 from $10.50. Cites more favorable commodity trends, partially offset by a weaker comp outlook and associated deleverage. Maintained Neutral rating.
Weight Watchers estimates raised at UBS8:17 AM EDT WTW estimates increased through 2010, UBS said. Company seeing higher attendance trends. Neutral rating and $26 price target.
Over bought Over sold
Above are the two image to highlight how "overbought" or "oversold" the markets are currently. It seems as if we are still overbought; however, not as bad as last week. Instead of a pullback, we got a 3 day sideways correction, which lowered the ranksOutlook
So, we closed over 1,000 on the S&P, leaving us at an incredible 50% jump since the March lows! If this is not dot.com then I don’t know what is! Regardless of what the “crowd” is doing, I will remain in high cash levels and find stocks that have margin of safety and good upside prospects.
These next days will be very interesting portfolio, especially Wednesday and Thursday. EXM reports Weds and PRU reports Thurs. I loaded up on EXM for a few weeks, then it shot off..so I still hold 50% of my original position from the $6.20 cost average. I believe EXM earnings will be good, since DRYS was good but I expect volatility either way. Normally the stock shoots 7% either way. The BDI (global shipping index) has been week during the past two weeks; however, the shippers have shook it off. PRU should do well, since HIG and LNC have been on fire. It is crazy, I bought HIG 2-3 weeks ago at $10.40 and LNC at $14.90 and now look at them! HIG at $16ish and LNC at $22ish! I still have a lot of my PRU from the $33 prints but it is amazing to see how much money managers love these things are buy them aggressively. LNC is still a good one and will accumulate it back on dips.
If people believe we are trying ‘out of the woods’ the DOW will print 12,000 in my honest opinion. The only way to play this market – which absolutely sounds insane – is to pretend the market will never go down but be ready to short or go 100% cash in a second. Yeah, you heard, pretend the market will never go down but be ready to short or go 100% cash in a second! It sounds nutz but it’s the only way to trade this market besides day trading! This is a typical “drink beer and buy stocks” market and if you are trying to short, it’s smarter to go eat a bagel.
If you short, just do your HW and keep tight stops of 3-5% because margin calls suck. The futures are downwards right now, each indice down -.75%. It will be interesting to see if we are near a top of just a tiny pullback.
These next days will be very interesting portfolio, especially Wednesday and Thursday. EXM reports Weds and PRU reports Thurs. I loaded up on EXM for a few weeks, then it shot off..so I still hold 50% of my original position from the $6.20 cost average. I believe EXM earnings will be good, since DRYS was good but I expect volatility either way. Normally the stock shoots 7% either way. The BDI (global shipping index) has been week during the past two weeks; however, the shippers have shook it off. PRU should do well, since HIG and LNC have been on fire. It is crazy, I bought HIG 2-3 weeks ago at $10.40 and LNC at $14.90 and now look at them! HIG at $16ish and LNC at $22ish! I still have a lot of my PRU from the $33 prints but it is amazing to see how much money managers love these things are buy them aggressively. LNC is still a good one and will accumulate it back on dips.
If people believe we are trying ‘out of the woods’ the DOW will print 12,000 in my honest opinion. The only way to play this market – which absolutely sounds insane – is to pretend the market will never go down but be ready to short or go 100% cash in a second. Yeah, you heard, pretend the market will never go down but be ready to short or go 100% cash in a second! It sounds nutz but it’s the only way to trade this market besides day trading! This is a typical “drink beer and buy stocks” market and if you are trying to short, it’s smarter to go eat a bagel.
If you short, just do your HW and keep tight stops of 3-5% because margin calls suck. The futures are downwards right now, each indice down -.75%. It will be interesting to see if we are near a top of just a tiny pullback.
Monday, August 3, 2009
RF Buy AMD
Bought 300 at 3.74
Lowering cost and praying they get their act together
Total cost average is 3.90
Lowering cost and praying they get their act together
Total cost average is 3.90
The Rally Continues
The rally continues, as the S&P surpasses 1,000. I bet many people thought I was crazy calling this humor 3 months ago but there is so much cash on the sidelines and so little ownership of equities, the rally continues to build. The question on everyone's mind is..."When will this end? Because we all know it will..." I honestly don't know the answer to that. My target since April (check archives) has been 1,050 on the S&P, so we are almost correct but my timing was off. I just did not believe that we would get that far, given this summer volume. I thought Fall would be the big push; however, the investment "bull" community senses tiny dips, if any. The "bear" community is hoping for a terrible jobs report Friday, so that day will be vital. We could see some profit taking on Thursday but i just don't know, this market is very strong. I took a position in SLM today. I researched the company extensive and it's a very difficult company to understand, due to some many variables and assumptions. I believe the contract given to them by the government with help SLM and I also believe there is a good chance that much of risk is over, due to them satisfying many liquidity concerns during last quarter. My research shows that SLM:- Extended its ABCP facility to April 2010, reducing outstandings by $9 billion, to $12.5- Completed $7.7B of student loan securizations- Repurchased over $1.1B in unsecured sebt- Funded $11B through Straight A conduit programsTo account for the Obama adminstration;s proposal to end private funding of FFELP loans by assuming the FFELP loan portfolio and expenses that will be saved from smaller lending, the stock is worth alot more than current market prices, in my honest view. As for other purchases, I might take a long rental in NVDA for a earnigns play on Thursday but want to see if we dip first. I am also looking at commodtiy names but the markups are very high already. Companies like Freeport-McMoran (FCX) could really smoke numbers in the future because they have expousre to great metals like Gold (falling dollar will boost golf) Silver (another inflation play) and economy turning metals like Copper, which has been soaring. I wanted to buy it at $18 but fear killed me, now its at $65 and I want to buy it LOL. Funny how things work but keep in mind this used to be a hedge fund favorite in 2007 and printed $130....if we get strong reflation in the coming years, it can do it again, given many production facilities have lowered output to save expenses and could put upward pressure on pricing.
RF Buy SLM
Yes I am buying sallie mae
200 at 8.60
Obama has these guys back, ride the government trade. Core cash spreads will be good next quarter and risks have been reduced
200 at 8.60
Obama has these guys back, ride the government trade. Core cash spreads will be good next quarter and risks have been reduced
Monday's Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades
Allergan upgraded at William Blair6:28 AM EDT
AGN upgraded at William Blair. Rating raised to Outperform from Market Perform. Raises 2009 EPS estimates to $2.74 from $2.65.
Abercrombie & Fitch upgraded at Barclays6:51 AM EDT
ANF upgraded at Barclays. Rating raised to Overweight from Equal-weight. Price target raised to $35 from $22. 2009 EPS estimates raised to $0.89 from $0.81.
Burger King downgraded at JP Morgan6:21 AM EDT
BKC downgraded at JP Morgan. Rating lowered to Neutral from Overweight. Price target lowered to $19 from $21. 2009 EPS estimates lowered to $1.36 from $1.38.
Genzyme downgraded at UBS6:39 AM EDT
GENZ downgraded at UBS. Rating lowered to Neutral from Buy. Price target lowered to $55 from $67. Maintains 2009 EPS estimates of $2.60.
Gap upgraded at Barclays6:50 AM EDT
GPS upgraded at Barclays. Rating raised to Overweight from Equal Weight. Price target raised to $21 from $18. 2009 EPS estimates raised to $1.26 from $1.25.
Ross Stores downgraded at Barclays6:48 AM EDT
ROST downgraded at Barclays. Rating lowered to Equal-weight from Overweight. Maintains $45 price target and 2009 EPS estimates of $2.83.
Wendys-Arbys Group upgraded at UBS6:40 AM EDT
WEN upgraded at UBS. Rating raised to Buy from Neutral. Price target raised to $5.50 from $4.90. Maintains 2009 EPS estimates of $0.18.
AGN upgraded at William Blair. Rating raised to Outperform from Market Perform. Raises 2009 EPS estimates to $2.74 from $2.65.
Abercrombie & Fitch upgraded at Barclays6:51 AM EDT
ANF upgraded at Barclays. Rating raised to Overweight from Equal-weight. Price target raised to $35 from $22. 2009 EPS estimates raised to $0.89 from $0.81.
Burger King downgraded at JP Morgan6:21 AM EDT
BKC downgraded at JP Morgan. Rating lowered to Neutral from Overweight. Price target lowered to $19 from $21. 2009 EPS estimates lowered to $1.36 from $1.38.
Genzyme downgraded at UBS6:39 AM EDT
GENZ downgraded at UBS. Rating lowered to Neutral from Buy. Price target lowered to $55 from $67. Maintains 2009 EPS estimates of $2.60.
Gap upgraded at Barclays6:50 AM EDT
GPS upgraded at Barclays. Rating raised to Overweight from Equal Weight. Price target raised to $21 from $18. 2009 EPS estimates raised to $1.26 from $1.25.
Ross Stores downgraded at Barclays6:48 AM EDT
ROST downgraded at Barclays. Rating lowered to Equal-weight from Overweight. Maintains $45 price target and 2009 EPS estimates of $2.83.
Wendys-Arbys Group upgraded at UBS6:40 AM EDT
WEN upgraded at UBS. Rating raised to Buy from Neutral. Price target raised to $5.50 from $4.90. Maintains 2009 EPS estimates of $0.18.
Market Outlook
I will be back in the office this week, so I plan on communicating more frequently. Honestly, the market is a weird position, where we might break 1,000 and run straight to 1,050 or we will just pause, pullback slightly, then battle from there. Friday’s action at the end of the trading day really was shocking. Bank buy programs came in buying BAC, C, KEY, STI, etc to balance the Russell index out, while the DOW dropped from +52 to -2 within 2 minutes. This action could signal a top of some sort but I need to see more confirmation.
Below, I highlighted my 2 portfolios – 1 cash heavy and 1 net-net. One the long side, I will be looking at firms with metals exposure, given China’s stimulus (only 15% spent so far!) so money can flow in, especially on the infrastructure front. Steels, aluminums, coppers, nickels, etc. will all benefit for some time, thanks for our good friends in China. I am also looking at Financials, particularly credit card firms like MA or V. These companies actually make money from transaction costs, not bearing the holding of debt, like AXP. In addition, I will look at quality banks, with little exposure to Commercial Real Estate (CRE). The CRE short netted a lot of my profit in 1st quarter and the trade went away due to liquidity; however, I believe the trade will come back in the next couples months, as banks having been boosting loan reserves to offset “something’ and I believe CRE is that “something”. The cheapest bank on the street remains Bank of American (BAC) has I loaded up on here with a cost average just south of $12. If you want management, you have to pay a premium, and JP Morgan (JPM) is at the top of the list. Most of the regional banks are tied to CRE and Construction Loans, so they will be the most volatile and most at risk. BAC and Wells Fargo (WFC) are tied highly to Residential Mortgage, where JPM and Citigroup (C) are tied to credit cards. Other unique banks that I have research, like State Street (STT) are tied to leasing and are low across other types of loans. I will add to my bank exposure in time but I will keep them as 2011 plays not 2009 plays.
As for Friday’s actions, I sold all of my GNK (25% gain) and FRO (15% gain) like I said on blog and also sold my DRYS calls for a breakeven. I still am holding the DRYS shares. As for other holdings, I am holding AMD . The company is clearly stealing share from NVDA but is having a tough time with Intel. AMD’s sales are not the problem, it’s their debt load and gross margins. I will hold this out for the next few months, in hopes that last quarter was a gross margin trough, and they blow out numbers with new products in Istanbul. If they get their act together, fund managers have plenty of cash and will deploy it in the name, if they can get trust out of management. If that is true, it can print $5+. I am holding PRU into earnings, the life insurers was a INCREDIBLE trade. HIG and LNC are both up like 50% in 2 weeks lol. I think PRU might run to $50 but no promises. F and BAC are long-term holds for me, so I won’t sell them. FTK is a crap stock, will hold and hopefully get my breakeven but no guarantees. Then again, I will sell it at $2.50, then it will print $8, so you know how I roll. UNG is also a long-term hold and will increase with hurricane season (if we get hurricanes). EXM is a monster – enough said…they “should” crush earnings via spot rate exposure. DRYS is on a short leash because management is horrible and is always looking for a way to screw over the shareholders.
Update: Futures are smoking right now, I wouldn’t be surprised to see s&p break 1,000 today!
Below, I highlighted my 2 portfolios – 1 cash heavy and 1 net-net. One the long side, I will be looking at firms with metals exposure, given China’s stimulus (only 15% spent so far!) so money can flow in, especially on the infrastructure front. Steels, aluminums, coppers, nickels, etc. will all benefit for some time, thanks for our good friends in China. I am also looking at Financials, particularly credit card firms like MA or V. These companies actually make money from transaction costs, not bearing the holding of debt, like AXP. In addition, I will look at quality banks, with little exposure to Commercial Real Estate (CRE). The CRE short netted a lot of my profit in 1st quarter and the trade went away due to liquidity; however, I believe the trade will come back in the next couples months, as banks having been boosting loan reserves to offset “something’ and I believe CRE is that “something”. The cheapest bank on the street remains Bank of American (BAC) has I loaded up on here with a cost average just south of $12. If you want management, you have to pay a premium, and JP Morgan (JPM) is at the top of the list. Most of the regional banks are tied to CRE and Construction Loans, so they will be the most volatile and most at risk. BAC and Wells Fargo (WFC) are tied highly to Residential Mortgage, where JPM and Citigroup (C) are tied to credit cards. Other unique banks that I have research, like State Street (STT) are tied to leasing and are low across other types of loans. I will add to my bank exposure in time but I will keep them as 2011 plays not 2009 plays.
As for Friday’s actions, I sold all of my GNK (25% gain) and FRO (15% gain) like I said on blog and also sold my DRYS calls for a breakeven. I still am holding the DRYS shares. As for other holdings, I am holding AMD . The company is clearly stealing share from NVDA but is having a tough time with Intel. AMD’s sales are not the problem, it’s their debt load and gross margins. I will hold this out for the next few months, in hopes that last quarter was a gross margin trough, and they blow out numbers with new products in Istanbul. If they get their act together, fund managers have plenty of cash and will deploy it in the name, if they can get trust out of management. If that is true, it can print $5+. I am holding PRU into earnings, the life insurers was a INCREDIBLE trade. HIG and LNC are both up like 50% in 2 weeks lol. I think PRU might run to $50 but no promises. F and BAC are long-term holds for me, so I won’t sell them. FTK is a crap stock, will hold and hopefully get my breakeven but no guarantees. Then again, I will sell it at $2.50, then it will print $8, so you know how I roll. UNG is also a long-term hold and will increase with hurricane season (if we get hurricanes). EXM is a monster – enough said…they “should” crush earnings via spot rate exposure. DRYS is on a short leash because management is horrible and is always looking for a way to screw over the shareholders.
Update: Futures are smoking right now, I wouldn’t be surprised to see s&p break 1,000 today!
Sunday, August 2, 2009
F
The cash for clunkers program seems that it will not be going away, so Ford will benefit greatly! With that being said, my gut tells me that Alan Mullaly is very happy and will probably be raising more cash soon. This again is what I would do if I was the CEO, in order to ensure cash, in case the cash burn rates increase. On this, I "speculate" that Ford will be going to do another equity offering or preferred share sale. If that is the case, I will participate in the offering (if this happens) or buy the preferred now because either way it should appreciate in value.
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