- The "bread and butter" aka RF's live time trading
- Section devoted to Technical Analysis Updates on sectors and various stocks
- Section devoted to Commodities
- A Forum that will be exclusive to Trade247 subscribers. More on this later but this will act as the "pros" forum that will have real hedge fund managers share stock picks, their market beliefs, as well as sell-side research, daily stock upgrades/downgrades, insider buying/selling notifications, etc
- RF trading seminars (fee based) - RF is creating videos on his trading strategy and will reveal his secrets for traders who want to get a gig on the street or want to further improve their portfolio performance. The seminars will focus on derivatives, long/short portfolio construction, charting, day trading, advanced deveritive and hedging strategies, and much more.
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Trade247 - Coming Soon!
We will be moving shortly, within the next 30-60 days, to a much larger platform. The new site will include the following:
Friday, June 26, 2009
RF Position Update (Trading Account Only)
SPWRA- Took a position today for some Solar exposure going into the second half of 2009. I believe solar will do well with stimulus projects and higher oil prices. I was either going to buy SPWRA or TAN with is a solar etf. TAN is a great way to play the sector through a broadbase etf of solar firms but the return is nothing amazing; however, it is definetly lower risk.
COST - Bought around $46 and am up a few. Retail is going to be weak on the fear of the weak consumer; however, this or WMT is the only retail stock I feel comfortable owning. I think Costco will due well because of higher gas prices (more consumers are frugal and will get gas there to save money) and the weaker dollar.
OPWV- Makes software that tracks analytics on mobile devices.
WFC- Big bank that has strong earnings power but tied to tarp.
CAL - Probably the best airline but has issues will high oil and consumer spending. Cash burn levels are the key metric to look at in airlines.
LUV - Regional airline, low fares, same strategy with CAL.
ENTR- Got a big upgrade last week with $4 PT. Chips go in DVR boxes and I believe sales with fly with new transition.
EXM - Biggest position. Poor balance sheet but I like them. They need to secure vessels and keep ships in transit. If commodity supplies stay high, the ships will NOT be in transit, which will hurt the stock and revenues. However, the management seems solid and last quarter was very impressive. Emerging markets will be the watch.
AMD - Getting smoked in this but will hold. I might add more but if they are stealing share and can make the chips, the stock can print $6.
ERX- Triple long energy bull ETF. Levered way to play oil names but XOM represents 40% of the index, so XOM a big component.
F - Long-term trade to $7 then will write $10 covered calls to boost gains.
FTK - Should have sold at $2.95 but made a big mistake. Will just sit on it and hope it goes higher.
GLW - This stock has been on FIRE. Held up great this week and the LCD demand in China is great. It seems to be a the top of a channel or is about to breakout to $20. Should have bought more at $14.
GME - Small position...seems cheap here but fears of digital downloads are scaring investors. We need Sony price cuts.
HIMX - LCD semiconductor - my second biggest position since $3ish (Equiv to $2.70 cost with new dividend reduction)
MWA - It's either going to $2 or $8. They need to work out debt covenants
KEY - My speculative bank. I think it can print $10 or $15 in 3 years. If not, it will print $2
RIMM - Holding cost avg around $75....will hold it out and like the management team.
TQNT - My favorite semiconductor in the market right now. Will double down in $4's.
UNG - I think we can get $18-22 out of it in time...depending on hurricane madness.
YHOO - Love the new CEO. MSFT still wants them but Bartz is playing hard to get. I am a believer in this turnaround....Ballmer is a moron and better make a play now before it's too late
I some banks in the long book (BAC and STI) but other than that, this is all that i have...if you don't see it here, I don't own it but I try to post all my moves "live" time.
COST - Bought around $46 and am up a few. Retail is going to be weak on the fear of the weak consumer; however, this or WMT is the only retail stock I feel comfortable owning. I think Costco will due well because of higher gas prices (more consumers are frugal and will get gas there to save money) and the weaker dollar.
OPWV- Makes software that tracks analytics on mobile devices.
WFC- Big bank that has strong earnings power but tied to tarp.
CAL - Probably the best airline but has issues will high oil and consumer spending. Cash burn levels are the key metric to look at in airlines.
LUV - Regional airline, low fares, same strategy with CAL.
ENTR- Got a big upgrade last week with $4 PT. Chips go in DVR boxes and I believe sales with fly with new transition.
EXM - Biggest position. Poor balance sheet but I like them. They need to secure vessels and keep ships in transit. If commodity supplies stay high, the ships will NOT be in transit, which will hurt the stock and revenues. However, the management seems solid and last quarter was very impressive. Emerging markets will be the watch.
AMD - Getting smoked in this but will hold. I might add more but if they are stealing share and can make the chips, the stock can print $6.
ERX- Triple long energy bull ETF. Levered way to play oil names but XOM represents 40% of the index, so XOM a big component.
F - Long-term trade to $7 then will write $10 covered calls to boost gains.
FTK - Should have sold at $2.95 but made a big mistake. Will just sit on it and hope it goes higher.
GLW - This stock has been on FIRE. Held up great this week and the LCD demand in China is great. It seems to be a the top of a channel or is about to breakout to $20. Should have bought more at $14.
GME - Small position...seems cheap here but fears of digital downloads are scaring investors. We need Sony price cuts.
HIMX - LCD semiconductor - my second biggest position since $3ish (Equiv to $2.70 cost with new dividend reduction)
MWA - It's either going to $2 or $8. They need to work out debt covenants
KEY - My speculative bank. I think it can print $10 or $15 in 3 years. If not, it will print $2
RIMM - Holding cost avg around $75....will hold it out and like the management team.
TQNT - My favorite semiconductor in the market right now. Will double down in $4's.
UNG - I think we can get $18-22 out of it in time...depending on hurricane madness.
YHOO - Love the new CEO. MSFT still wants them but Bartz is playing hard to get. I am a believer in this turnaround....Ballmer is a moron and better make a play now before it's too late
I some banks in the long book (BAC and STI) but other than that, this is all that i have...if you don't see it here, I don't own it but I try to post all my moves "live" time.
Market Wrapup
We are back ladies and gentlemen..Up monsterous today with my top two positons: HIMX and EXM both up over 6%+. I am off to celebrate in honor of MJ.
Market
I will probably refrain from making purchases today but if I had too I would buy TQNT, EXM, KEY, or maybe DRYS.
I might sell some into the bell but will just chill out and smack myself with a hoagie for selling my 3k of RFMD that I bought at 1.70, now that it is at 4.
Have a good weekend
I might sell some into the bell but will just chill out and smack myself with a hoagie for selling my 3k of RFMD that I bought at 1.70, now that it is at 4.
Have a good weekend
Thursday, June 25, 2009
SIRI
The bonds sold like hot cakes today..HUGE investor demand, hence more mojo for stock!
Sirius XM (SIRI) sold $525.75 million of senior secured notes due June 2013, with a coupon of 11.25%. The notes were priced at 95.093, to yield 12.875%. Proceeds to the satellite radio company will be just shy of $500 million. The notes are non-callable for two years.
Sirius XM (SIRI) sold $525.75 million of senior secured notes due June 2013, with a coupon of 11.25%. The notes were priced at 95.093, to yield 12.875%. Proceeds to the satellite radio company will be just shy of $500 million. The notes are non-callable for two years.
TQNT
My biggest semiconductor position besides HIMX. I love this thing, makes chips for new iphone! 3 chips per phone....
I will add more in %4.75ish range...price target $7ish
I will add more in %4.75ish range...price target $7ish
POT
I hope you were out for a quick 7 points
Potash reduces Q2 guidance below consensus; lowers to ~$0.70 vs $0.93 consensus, down from $1.10-1.50 (93.52 +0.10) Co lowers Q2 EPS to ~$0.70 vs $0.93 First Call consensus, down from $1.10-1.50. Co says the change reflects substantially lower than forecasted potash sales volumes due to deferral of purchases by customers around the world and lower realized prices for phosphate fertilizers. Any necessary revisions to annual guidance will be addressed in our second-quarter news release.""
Potash reduces Q2 guidance below consensus; lowers to ~$0.70 vs $0.93 consensus, down from $1.10-1.50 (93.52 +0.10) Co lowers Q2 EPS to ~$0.70 vs $0.93 First Call consensus, down from $1.10-1.50. Co says the change reflects substantially lower than forecasted potash sales volumes due to deferral of purchases by customers around the world and lower realized prices for phosphate fertilizers. Any necessary revisions to annual guidance will be addressed in our second-quarter news release.""
Market Wrapup
Finally, the feel of winning again.
Strong action today as the indices ripped higher for no reason at all. GLW closed right, as well as my little flyer, SIRI. EXM played dead, as the baltic dry index is dropping, but I am not to concerned. Lastly, I will say that Carol Bartz is doing things at YHoO. She is saying good things and the big money shareholders love her. I might add more on weakness.
All in all, I hope we continue to rally but I wouldn't be short here, nor too heavily long, as in 100%. Just make solid trades and take profits, that is the name to the game
Strong action today as the indices ripped higher for no reason at all. GLW closed right, as well as my little flyer, SIRI. EXM played dead, as the baltic dry index is dropping, but I am not to concerned. Lastly, I will say that Carol Bartz is doing things at YHoO. She is saying good things and the big money shareholders love her. I might add more on weakness.
All in all, I hope we continue to rally but I wouldn't be short here, nor too heavily long, as in 100%. Just make solid trades and take profits, that is the name to the game
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Views on the Market
(Source: dshort.com - click to enlarge)Well I guess it’s confession time. For the first time this year, I am rather confused on where the market seems to be heading. I have not been 100% correct this year but have been rather accurate and done well navigating through the waters. However, the events of the past two weeks have shocked me and the indices have corrected about 6%. I really believed we had a chance to break 1,000 this month because of funds being underowned; however, with this selloff their 0% quarter or YTD gains look fairly good since the DOW and the S&P are now negative for the year. Honestly, I am very confused about this market and have given back some big gains, which disappoints me greatly; however, I have had a great year and believe this sell-off has created value. However, just because a stock is cheap, doesn’t mean it can’t get cheaper, as we discovered this year. I will give you my view for the market and lay it out in three scenarios:
1. Correction – I don’t believe we will retest the 666 on the S&P from the March lows due to the Fed’s actions and stimulus in plan; however, the consumer is in the process of deleveraging and unemployment remains weak. If you see this historical bear market chart, our current market movement is the blue line. I believe that our next correction will be about 6-8% more in this case and it seems like it is perfectly lining up with the 1973 Oil Crisis chart, highlighted in red. That would take us to about 825 on the S&P. I would say this is about a 30% chance and if it does and you have high cash levels, you will easily make your year and probably double your money within a month, when we rebound (and I still believe we will see 1050+ on the S&P this year).
2. Sideways Correction- The problem with a sideways correction is that it is a sawtooth pattern that trades as a range. Our range seems to be 875-925 and peaked at 950. The problem is that many long investors will get impatient and if they all sell at once, the market will tank. However, we seem to buy on the low end of the channel, so if this is the sideways correction, we should float to 875 and then go back to 925 and trade within in that range, until support is broken at 875 or resistance is broken at 925, 950. This could be a monthly thing, since a lot of money managers who made their year, have taken the summer off, hence “summer volume”. I would say this is a 40-50% chance.
3. Elevator Up Bull – This is when we just squeeze the shorts out of their position and rocket higher within the next month or two. Many believe this is possible as bearish sentiment is back in the market, and many funds will be building net short positions and holding cash and not longs. This could create a epic squeeze, since there is nearly $8 trillion of cash on the sidelines, that is tired of earning 0.5% interest. I would say this is a 20-30% chance, the lowest of the three.
All in all, this market is very difficult to navigate and I have been buying stocks that I believe are cheap and know. However, just because the stocks are cheap, doesn’t mean the stocks can’t get cheaper. I have a bunch of stocks that I have uncertainty about, so if I continue to remain uneasy, I will sell 40% of my holdings, at a gain or a loss, just to reduce my exposure, in case scenario #1 hits. I covered all of my shorts yesterday, which may have been stupid but ultimately, my gut told me to. I might get back in but this market just seems like it wants to trick people. Two weeks ago, everyone was loading up on stocks and now, everyone wants to short stocks! That last thing you want to do is load up on FAZ and lost 30% in a day because it can happen easily. Frankly, there hasn’t been this “ah ha” moment that makes me want to go all-in short, especially now that every idiot rookie is buying inverse etfs. I tend to have a feel of when to do that, and now just doesn’t seem right.
Position Update: GME
Lazard Capital Markets notes that this morning the Chief Marketing Officer of Best Buy (BBY) disclosed on his blog that Best Buy is testing sales of used video games in stores in Dallas and Austin. The kiosks also allow customers to trade used games for store credit through the kiosks. While firm believes that BBY's entry into the used video game market will create a new overhang on shares of GME, firm expects BBY's initiative to expand the used video game market rather than take significant share from the specialty channel. Firm estimates the size of the commercial used video game market in the $2.5 bln range worldwide, continuing to grow, driven by major players including GME, Game Group, Game Crazy, and Internet marketplaces such as eBay (EBAY) and Amazon (AMZN)."
Position Update: SIRI
Barrington Research analyst James Goss this morning upped his rating on Sirius XM (SIRI) to Outperfrom from Market Perform, setting a price target of 70 cents, or twice yesterday’s closing price of 35 cents.
Goss writes that “after a recent period of significant volatility in the share price,” several factors are working in the satellite radio company’s favor. He says a favorable swing in EBITDA to more than $500 million into positive territory this year should be followed by substantial additional revenue gains.
The analyst contends that Sirius now has “fundamental momentum,” driven by a number of factors:
Cost cuts across a broad swatch of line items, with more to come.
Added charges for the previously complimentary Internet service.
Increased prices for added subscriptions under family plan.
Likely to add “royalty recovery” fee under new terms of FCC agreement.
New initiatives like iPhone App “are being very well received.”
SIRI today is up 2 cents, or 6%, to 37 cents.
(Source: Barron's)
Goss writes that “after a recent period of significant volatility in the share price,” several factors are working in the satellite radio company’s favor. He says a favorable swing in EBITDA to more than $500 million into positive territory this year should be followed by substantial additional revenue gains.
The analyst contends that Sirius now has “fundamental momentum,” driven by a number of factors:
Cost cuts across a broad swatch of line items, with more to come.
Added charges for the previously complimentary Internet service.
Increased prices for added subscriptions under family plan.
Likely to add “royalty recovery” fee under new terms of FCC agreement.
New initiatives like iPhone App “are being very well received.”
SIRI today is up 2 cents, or 6%, to 37 cents.
(Source: Barron's)
market outlook
I'm not buying this doomsday bs that is going on. I will add some longs today early, below is my buylist
ERX, SLW, POT, EXM
ERX, SLW, POT, EXM
Monday, June 22, 2009
GLW
"Barclays raises their tgt to $20 from $17, saying while they believe the market anticipates a beat and raise from GLW this earnings season, firm thinks investors are underestimating the impact of glass shortage on margins and core volumes. After layering in resiliency of LCD TV unit demand and undemanding valuation amongst large cap tech space, firm actually views GLW as a defensive name heading into the summer. In step with buy-side expectations, firm looks for GLW to report 90-95% volume growth for core business and 45-50% growth for S.C.P., driving 2Q09 EPS of $0.31 vs consensus of $0.27. Firm looks also for GLW to raise its LCD glass outlook for 2009 from +5-10% to +10-15%, driving new CY10 EPS of $1.45 vs old estimate of $1.25, and consensus of $1.27. "
Market Wrapup
What a beatdown day. Luckily, I got net short Friday; however, I still took big hits across the board, even though the short exposure helped. I got a bunch of dogs but really do not want to take unrealized gains here but at the same times, I really want to get long some names that are on sale. Ags are beginning to look VERY attractive at these levels: AGU, POT, and IPI.
I covered all of my shorts today and will scale into more longs over the next few days. We are in one of two scenarios:
1. The bottom of a trading range that is bounded between 875 - 950 and back up we go to retest resistance levels.
OR
2. A more agressive correction that is centered around fear that the consumer is dead, weak retail sales, higher gas prices, and lower consider confidence.
Commodities might sell off more because of a dollar rally, so I am regretting not selling at least 50% of DXO at $4.80; however, I will contemplate my next move on oil. Frankly, I believe people are trying to short oil and I am looking for short squeeze. The XLE is back to late April/early May prices, so I mean the selloff in energy is rather intense and could be overdone, hence my purchase in ERX (3x bull on energy index). However, if decided to try and catch these ags or energy bottoms, have extra bullets or use tight stops in order to cost average in better.
Lastly, I will admit this market will be more difficult to nagivate during the next 6 months; however, "the gloves are off" and RF is swinging at any obstacle trying to deny him. My time horizons are limited, except for bank longs. Any other position may be held for 1 hour, 1 day, 1 week, 1 month or any other time. I will start trading the market better and running my account way more aggressively, regardless of any dumb "buy and hold" strategiest out there. I got too market happy and let rich gains slip away, particularly in my SSO calls, OPWV, etc.
Bottom line: I am pissed and more determined
I covered all of my shorts today and will scale into more longs over the next few days. We are in one of two scenarios:
1. The bottom of a trading range that is bounded between 875 - 950 and back up we go to retest resistance levels.
OR
2. A more agressive correction that is centered around fear that the consumer is dead, weak retail sales, higher gas prices, and lower consider confidence.
Commodities might sell off more because of a dollar rally, so I am regretting not selling at least 50% of DXO at $4.80; however, I will contemplate my next move on oil. Frankly, I believe people are trying to short oil and I am looking for short squeeze. The XLE is back to late April/early May prices, so I mean the selloff in energy is rather intense and could be overdone, hence my purchase in ERX (3x bull on energy index). However, if decided to try and catch these ags or energy bottoms, have extra bullets or use tight stops in order to cost average in better.
Lastly, I will admit this market will be more difficult to nagivate during the next 6 months; however, "the gloves are off" and RF is swinging at any obstacle trying to deny him. My time horizons are limited, except for bank longs. Any other position may be held for 1 hour, 1 day, 1 week, 1 month or any other time. I will start trading the market better and running my account way more aggressively, regardless of any dumb "buy and hold" strategiest out there. I got too market happy and let rich gains slip away, particularly in my SSO calls, OPWV, etc.
Bottom line: I am pissed and more determined
RF Sells
Sold all my ultrashorts
Sold BGZ at 38.80, 9% wins
Sold all twm for 5% wins
Sold all QID for 6% wins
Sold BGZ at 38.80, 9% wins
Sold all twm for 5% wins
Sold all QID for 6% wins
GME
Here are some highlights from Sterne Agrees meeting with management:
They remain buyers of the stock, reiterating $35 price target
Threats of digital downloading are overblown
Next 6 months will be strong with potential hardware price cuts, easier comps, and market share gains
Expecting a $100 price cut on PS by 8/18 or lease of Madden
Possible $50 price cut on wii.
June and July will be tough but August should be first positive month for software sales growth in months
Strong product line coming in last month of FY.
Will use free cash flow to reduce debt
Plans to open 400 stores, 200 US and 200 in Europe. This rate should continue for 3 years.
They remain buyers of the stock, reiterating $35 price target
Threats of digital downloading are overblown
Next 6 months will be strong with potential hardware price cuts, easier comps, and market share gains
Expecting a $100 price cut on PS by 8/18 or lease of Madden
Possible $50 price cut on wii.
June and July will be tough but August should be first positive month for software sales growth in months
Strong product line coming in last month of FY.
Will use free cash flow to reduce debt
Plans to open 400 stores, 200 US and 200 in Europe. This rate should continue for 3 years.
Market Wrapup
This week will be very interesting, as a record amount of treasury debt will be auctioned. I tilted my account net short Friday, for the first time in a while but its nothing major. If I had a 50% cash position, I would not be short at all but I don't want to take unrealized losses.
As for longs, I like things related to smartphones, tech, banks, and shippers. TQNT, OVTI, QCOM, BCRM, EXM, DRYS, KEY, STI, BAC, MSFT, AAPL.
I expect the shorts to invade RIMM but will probably hold it out and add more. From a value play, NOK seems cheap as well as HES
As for longs, I like things related to smartphones, tech, banks, and shippers. TQNT, OVTI, QCOM, BCRM, EXM, DRYS, KEY, STI, BAC, MSFT, AAPL.
I expect the shorts to invade RIMM but will probably hold it out and add more. From a value play, NOK seems cheap as well as HES
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Wall Street Recap - June 15-19
(Source: Goldman Sachs)This week's action I find puzzling. The indexes are still rather "high" to most BUT there are alot of stocks the got beat up this week. The main stocks with the discounts are materials and industrials, which are highlighted as the worst sectors of this past week. Stocks like POT, RIG, NOV, HES, IPI, and MOS got crushed this week, while investors began buying Healthcare and Utilities. Healthcare and Utilities are normally considered low risk secots; however, with Obama's healthcare plan, I would be careful. If I had to play it, I would trade the depressed HMOs for a contanza trade.
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