RF's Portfolio

As I am leaving now, here is my portfolio update:

BAC (Cost Avg. $11.90) - This is a 2011 play for me. I believe the bank's core earnings power will be incredible in time and with historical bank multiples of 10x PE, it leaves a 2 or 3 year price target of $30 from my calculations. However, the risk lies in the fact, can they generate the earnings power and the equity dilution that could take place with pref share conversions.

EXM - (Cost avg. $6.21) - Jefferies up estimates on FY 09 and 10 on this one. Commodities are still hot as steel production is picking up..someone has to deliver it, right? Should print $10 if not $15.

F - (cost avg. $4.925) - Long-term bet on Alan Mullay. Long-term should print $7.50 or $10.

FTK (Cost avg. $2.30) - If nat gas and oil pick up these guys will benefit. Very speculative but I made my bed, so I will sleep in it. It's going to drop hard to a buck or it will print $4.

AMD (cost avg. $3.50) - I believe chips will recover and even this dog will recover. I see $2 down or $2 up, flip a coin but I will assume the risk.

KEY (Cost avg. $5.40) - Patienece wearing then on this piece but will hold it out. Regional bank that is highly speculative. If they are truly out of the woods and stop doing dumb things to raise capital (and diluting the common) I believe this bank could print $10 by 2011.

RIMM (Cost avg. $74.75) - Regardless of Cramer and his garbage, I believe RIMM, AAPL, and yes..PALM are the 3 winners. 4G in my view might be bigger than the tech bubble..that is how much growth is in this area. Look at my OPWV from $2 to $3 and will probably print $50 now that I am out of it. 4G is a serious driver in the next two years - watch out for RIMM and AAPL, especially if AAPL gets a new contract with Verizon. AAPL could double easily on that.

HIMX (Cost avg. $2.80 div. adjusted) - Great LCD technology with clean balance sheet.

UNG (Cost avg. $14.10) - I will add more to this..supplies on natural gas are high but production cuts are being made and hurricane season is coming. If hurricane season is DESTRUCTIVE, UNG could print $19+

GNK (Cost avg. $19.10) - My favorite stock...Chinese iron imports at multiyear highs...only 15% of infrastructure (road) stimulus spent...GNK and EXM can move WAYYYYYYY higher.

ENTR (Cost avg. $2.40) - Makes chips that go in DVR boxes. Tons of debt but it will either shoot to $1.50 or $6.

SPWRA (Cost avg. $26) - My favorite solar play that is not working well. Will hold it out, I think solar will pick up in late 2009.

FRO (Cost avg. $20.40) - Favorite tanker....it's a beast. Solid dividend and will add more at $19 or less. In time, I think we can see $30-40 on this one.

PRU (Cost avg. $33.70) - I bought this like 4 days ago and it's already up 6 points lol. This one and LNC got 50%+ upside in my view. I will add LNC on dips but will hold both INTO earnings.

Logging Out

Well we did it, monster week. Took more profits and left some losers in the book, along with my good longs. My cash position is north of 65% which is the highest its been since February. I feel the next move will be lower but it very well could be a base build to 1000+ levels on s@p. As for year, I'm up 208% snd don't want to lose it. I have no shorts due to risky and believe its dumb to be short here. We still have AAPL earnings and many more firms, so catalysts are high.

Ill be on vacation next week and of course ill be trading on breaks. I know what I will buy now and I will continue to post all.

Later on

RF $$$$

RF Sells

Changed mind

Sold all ERX at 29.75 for 25% gain

Sold all GLW for 19% gain at 16.61

ERX

Will sell half at 30 or better from 24 cost basis. Long 300 shares,, killing it this week, go us!

GNK and EXM

Estimates for 09 and 10 raised by jefferies!

RF wins again!

Earnings

We got a mixed bag

Over 60% of firms have missed revenue expectations while over 66% of firms have beat on earnings.

Clearly this shows cost cutting is working, however, weak revenues highlight weak spending.

Market

Futures a little weak but wow, citi posted some good stuff. As you know I am long some banks but these are 2011 plays, not 2009. It will take time for core earning power to evolve.


As for the market, I believe there is more risk being short than long here. With that being said, I will sit on high cash levels and comtemplate my next strike.

Doug Kass

LOL This guy is the man, chillin it up on Sqwak Box in the Hamptons

GE

Earnings are "fair" but I think this company is pathetic. Jeff Immelt is a doosch bag and their GE Capital arm is a threat. The leverage from my calcuations is triple digit to 1 and the commerical real estate property is not marked to market; therefore, it seems like the valuations are very high and unrealistic.

INTC

(Source: UBS Investment Research - click to enlarge)

RF Position Update: GLW

I currently have a GLW position with a cost average of $14.06. The chart above highlights the techincal perspective. As you can see, the orange line highlights key resistance. In order for the stock to continue to move higher, it needs to close above $16.85ish. Once that happens, the shorts will run and the bulls can conquer this stock to $18 or $20. As you can see by the support line (the blue line) support for the stock is $14. The stock has traded from a $14 to $16 channel 3 times since April and this is make or break for GLW. Either it will break resistance or it will continue to channel. Use the chart as your guide and if it looks like we are heading to $16, it's likely just a continuing channel that will lead to $14 or $15. If we close above $16.85, the blue circle highlights the next "upside" run...(+1 to 4 more points).

Market

This is very good strength. We probably will try and test 950

QID

Sold out at 30.30 for 60 loss. Market strong here, will make it up later $$

Might buy palm, 77% short interest!

Market

Market is trading in tight intraday average, however, being flat given we have been up 6% this week is rather tremendous in my view. The question remains will be short squeeze higher or fade the day into big earnings. Goog after the bell and GE BAC and C tomorrow is very interesting. I will probably sell my QID for a tiny gain or loss in a bit. As for stocks, I really want to buy Dell but will hope for a $12 buy point. I also will add some software soon, probably MSFT or ORCL. SYMC is another good one but its up a 1.50 already from the recommendation, so its hot to say the least. BAC is also cheap in my view but if you want a bank with strong management, you have to pay a premium and go with JPM.

I believe we will probably close down but this is too difficult to navaigate, hence my large cash position.

RIMM

Wow Nok is getting hammered today, comfirming beliefs RImm and AAPL are taking share. I own rimm and am down 4 points but may add over time but its under tons of pressure.

RF Buy QID

Bought 200 at 30.60

Day trade

RF & Market Update

(Harry, RF's Money Counter)

Well...welll..well...no need to brag so I will refrain; however, I will say that the media just caused tons of traders a boat load of cash by creating fear. All I can say is don't listen to them. Ben Stein said that Merill Lynch was so cheap at $87 that is should be put in a cereal box and given away. Tracy Byers or whatever her name on Fox said the Dow was going to 16,000 last year. Charles Payne top pick last year was Washington Mutual.

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As for my account, I am up +200.68% YTD, given i went all cash right now. I raised 40% cash today by selling:

OPWV $2.55, 27.5% GAIN

WFC $25.18, 7% GAIN

YHOO $15.60 6% GAIN

CAL $10.02 -1.5% GAIN

TQNT $5.94, +17% GAIN

TTM $8.66, +3% GAIN

HIG $11.90, 13% GAIN

CIEN $10.06, 11% GAIN

I think the market is in one of three places:

1. Top of a trading range that is between 870 to 930 on the S&P..meaning we trade back to 870.

2. Building a foundation for a new bull run to 1050

3. A trade to a wider range to 950 on the S&P

I am mixed on which one right now but play my chips to benefit all three. I raised high cash levels to reduce risk and I don't want to be heavily long nor short here....it's stupid. One side of the coin shows horrid economic data but the other side shows strong earnings. Intel drove the market today, which created a monster short squeeze into the bell. The strength of today's rally was very impressive due to the fact that shorts couldn't drive down the close. We still have big earnings tomorrow and Friday. JP Morgan is before the bell as well as IBM. Bank of America, Citi, and GE are friday, so there is plenty of fuel for the car (or for the fire). My best tip is to play smaller in size in this market and don't push strong long or short here...instead lean on cash, longs, and be market neutral.

market

RF wins again...

rf sell

OPWV

RF sells

Yhoo TQNT ttm wfc hig Cal

RF Sells

Sold all WFC for 5% gain

Sold 200 HIG at 11.56 220 profit

Market outlook

Let's cut right to the chase, I celebrated huge day via the huge gains in EXM and GNK, my top holdings. For weeks I have been adding these, as sells read to deep into the downturn of the Baltic Dry Index. I believe EXM and GNK both have way more upside and are not that expensive at these levels. Then again 6 bux and 18 bux were the buy zones.

As for the market, we should rip higher if the futures are any indication of the day. Intel crushed earnings after the bell, sending green shoots. I saw a big selloff in dell yesterday and if I was at the office, I would have bought the dip. Dell will be fine in my view and in time will print 15 bucks.

As for holdings, I will look to cut HIG soon, as well as other stuff like a CIEN and CAL. I own WFC but it worries me as the bank might have another equity offering soon.

Will post activity throughout day, in short if I had to buy something it would be dell or symc but I will refrain as I believe we will approach 920 on s&p and drift back down.

market

I'm heading out now, so let me touch base on few emails

I am still short 17.50 ' 19 and 20 puts on GNK. If we close above 20 come Friday all premium is profits. If not I will have shares put in account at those strikes, pending on close price. If you want any more info, just email me but won't respond til Thursday

As for rally, I'm somewhat enthused but the financials are sluggish and if they stay that way, we will close lower than these levels. I still believe we are in a range of 870 to 925 on s and p, so keep that in mind.

Be back, catch you guys later.

EXM GNK

My biggest positions and love the action in them today.

Cost average on EXM is 6.30 and GNK 18.90
These will move way higher in time, then again personal view

PRU

Still holding, upgraded today at JP Morgan with 43 year end PT


Will hold this one for a while, HIG is more short term trade for me

RF Short GS

Short GS for a day trade play at 149.29 ahead of earnings

Market Outlook

Futures look pretty healthy this morning, across all indices. I believe Financials and Tech will be strong for the next week or so with earnings but then again, anything can happen. I will out of town today and tomorrow, so I probably will not do anymore buying but who knows, I might. I might sell some stuff over the next few days and I will post here. I will also try to post every once in a while, so ideas but I will be back in full force Thursday. Take it easy.

ENTR

My gut tells me this stock is going to rip soon...

BAC

The cheapest bank in the market now...I am loaded up pretty good on this one, with cost average in high $11's. I think near-term it has another $1 or $2 but in 2 or 3 years, could easily print $25-$30 a share.

GS

(Source: Meredith Whitney Advisors Group, LLC)

Wall Street's top "Financials/Banks" upgraded Goldman Sachs today and slapped a $186 price target on the stock. Personally, I believe that Goldman is cheap based on valuation but the company should crush earnings tomorrow and in time print $200....perhaps by the end of this year.

I have no position in Goldman but would look to get long at $130ish.

FAZ

I will probably short this tomorrow in high $49's or around $50. By doing this trade, I am pretty much saying I want to be long banks in size going into earnings. Buying FAS (the triple bull) is another way to do this. Financials are my biggest holdings right now. Currently I am long:

WFC, BAC, STI, PRU, HIG, and KEY

Market Wrapup

We win again...

Market

Rally looks good, I really would like to see the S&P futures close over 900. If so, we should have another 1 or 2 % day tomorrow.

I think the best way to the summer market is to buy agressively in the low S@P range (875ish range). I would buy the stuff you want to hold 6 months out and trading long rentals, basically 1 or 2 week holds. As we progress higher in the S@P range, say 910 or so, I would thin my trading longs to bring cash levels up and lockin profits. With that cash, buy back trading longs when we rechannel backwards.

Financials

Are ripping with the belief Goldman will crush earnings tomorrow, which they will with ease. BAC and STI remain the best bank longs and I love the action in PRU and HIG. I will sell my LNC here shortly for a 4% gain.

Shippers remain weak but I will hold them regardless.

Tech still has some hot spots, particularly in the software arena. Names like ORCL, SYMC, MSFT, and specs like SFSF all have 20% upside potential (symc may have 30) given the market doesn't take. These are still discount and cheap based on historic valuations

Market Outlook

My fellow gamblers, I hope everyone had a good weekend..I have to say that I was hoping Mir would have beat Lesner but that big bafoon won

As for the market, I have no idea where its going. According to market techincals, we are getting over sold and 870 is the key technical level to watch on the s@p. If we close below, good chance we hit 850 or 830

I rather be long than short here, in fact I have no positions on in any account, I rather just be a dip buyer.

I like FRO GNK EXM PRU GLW TQNT the best

Earnings Week - Let the Gambling Begin!

Monday:
CSX

Tuesday:
Goldman Sachs GS
Intel Corporation INTC
Johnson & Johnson JNJ
Yum! Brands, Inc. YUM

Thursday:
Cypress Semiconductor CY
Google GOOG
Harley-Davidson HOG
International Business Machines IBM
JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM
Nokia NOK

Friday:
Bank of America Corporation BAC
Citigroup Inc. C
General Electric GE