Friday, March 27, 2009

Market Outlook - March 27

Futures seem to be significantly lower today, with the S&P projected to open around 820, from the 832 close yesterday. From a technical perspective, we are seeing high volume on up days and more institutional buying, which is good. In addition, many fund managers will do some "window dressing" since Q1 ends Tuesday. Basically, fund managers will dump some dogs and buy outperforming stocks to show their investors that they have good stocks, like AAPL. That could create a rally itself. Alot of fund managers really believe this is the bottom, so they are buying the dips agressively.

So the two options are: 1) buy the dips or 2) raise some cash. Note, if you want to get short, I would be careful, but you can as a hedge and get short individual names.

Frankly, I will not sell my TTWO or NTGR but anything else may be sold or I may make more purchases because I have a lot of cash. As for picks, I would stick to firms with great balance sheets: NTGR, FWLT, DELL, UNH, HUM, LOGI, AAPL, or spec like VCLK. My favorite long for a value perspective is NTGR because it has nearly $5.78 of cash per share, according to my calculations, and is selling like at $12. I would just piece in small, over time.

I got some microcaps that sell under $5 but if we pull back these could fall hard; however, if we takeoff again these should charge up! I also threw in a few under $10 that I like.

SD, FCS, JASO, SOLF, TGB, TQNT, SIMG, SAY, RT, NBG, CPE, ARTG, AOB.

FCS is a semi and those have been ripping! SOLF and JASO are solar and those have been ripping too! These things can pop folks, so take a look at em and buy what you think. My gut is telling me to buy this dip here but we shall see.

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