Above is my analysis on the DOW 30, YTD. The stock highlighted in RED represented the stocks that are negative YTD. The stocks highlighted in yellow are financials. The last column on the right is my personal view or "coverage" on the stocks, in my personal view (see disclaimer at bottom, none of this is investment recommendations, just for educational purposes). My favorite two in the DOW is Intel and Proctor & Gamble. Intel have legs to giddy up but P&G is a conservative play that is good for a retirement account or IRA. UTX and IBM are not bad either. GM is the worst in the DOW and I personally believe the equity of will go to $0, whether the firm is solvent or not. Anyways, these are my personal views, in case you are building a portfolio of longer term plays.As for my current trading account, I have about 50% cash, 10% short exposure, and 40% long. Couldn't be happier. If the S&P can carry strength and bring that over to the futures, to hit my target (while we trade in the day), then we COULD bust higher. However, I believe we will go higher in the short-term (6 months) but it will be a sawtooth. This market is rather interesting, for the week we were FLAT! That is pretty remarkable, the market doesn't want to drop. Everyone at the bottom was saying, "we are going to 600, then possibly 500" and they were wrong. Now everyone is saying "we are going to drop 75-120 points on the S&P, this is a sucker's rally" but are they wrong? I tell you if we hold like this for another month, we will skyrocket higher because mutual funds are sitting on cash waiting for a pullback, but if we don't get it, then they will step in and drive it way higher. I am saying 1000+ on S&P by August, easy, if that is the case. There is alot of money still in cash and when that money is back in, this will take stocks way higher. For the longer-term (next 2-3 years), this market will be very volatile and difficult to trade because interest rates will rise and money will move into fixed income for nice yields (in my view). As always, RF will be prepared and the Trade247 followers will be ready.
Interesting comments on the S&P.
ReplyDeleteI see Sep 09 SPY 100 Calls are going off around 2.25. Could also sell the Sep 09 SPY 100 Put at 16.0; that would be a wild ride.
LOL, that would be a wild ride!
ReplyDeleteIt's really interesting because this market doesn't want to go down. I am figuring we will have a pause stage soon (pullback to low 800's) then we can go higher but the sell off Monday clearly showed there were dip buyers out there.
I personally think we can see 950-1050 on the S&P by mid or later summer but my only fear is we are going too quick, too soon, which may cause a scary pullback.