Friday, May 1, 2009

Market Outlook

I am going to be in meetings for most of the day today, so I will try to post buys/sells throughout the day. Honestly, I probably won't be back to my desk until afternoon, so just trust your gut and trade accordingly. I covered my COF short, so I am rather flat now, not necessarily net short. That is how crazy this market is folks, things change in seconds. I thought we'd be done big today (futures) but we are dead flat. From a technical support level, the S&P looks to want to push to 900-930. The DOW needs to hold 8,000 as well, and for the S&P we need to hold 850 in my view. If we break those, we could have some retracement, coupled with panic selling. I feel there are many who are holding on to longs, hoping the rally continues, and many will hold to late and once the market seems to them that "we are going lower", there will be a huge panic selling.



My trading account has the following:



ACH, ATHR, CBB, DELL, DRYS, EXM, GIGM, GNK, JASO, S, SDS, SKF, SONS, VXX



Out of these, I am holding DELL for the long-term regardless.

In conclusion, I would be careful either way here. I put down about $10k on shippers yesterday afternoon (in addition to my holdings) and they are ripping in premarket. I might just 100% (with expect of DELL) cash if these big bets payoff. Good luck today.

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