The grid above explains it all. Red everyone except for the conservative stuff, via consumer goods and heatlhcare. PFE has had a nice run in the past few days, good stuff. Today was a disaster, nothing can explain it better. In the past two days my trading account has tanked 16%; however, RF remains up a stagger 210% ytd. I saw these small caps that recorded 20% day gains daily, totally exploded in my face. I gave back alot of monster gains in them and I'm pissed. I totally kicked them (most) and brought back my cash position to 40%. The charts are telling me that the small cap fun is about over and the market was to go lower. We busted through 900 support on the S&P and closed right at the next support level at 883. When I look at the financials (aka the market leader) the group seems "cheaper" but not "cheap". This makes me think we can guide lower. We might retrace to 800 but I think this rally can continue. I wouldn't bet the farm on it but I think many managers are underowned, so they might start buying. I would keep high cash levels, 40%+, rather than short now. I should have kept the next short position from last Wednesday, so I guess my market barameter is off a week. In conclusion, I would get a shopping list ready and buy in scale on this dip. We might bounce tomorrow but I the market is leaning to the down side.
Lastly, I see that Obama read my post from 2 days ago. He is now regulating the CDS market...smart move! but I would abolish it! and after that, make sure Doug Kass doesn't host Squwak Box anymore!
No comments:
Post a Comment