Monday, May 18, 2009

Market Wrapup

Big day for the indexes today, with the S&P ripping 26 pts today. One biggest catalyst was from LOWE's but the other came in Financials. Star analyst Dick Bove came out and said the bank index couple triple from these levels! In addition, BAC was upgraded by Goldman, which was a big wave of bullish.

The VIX close below 30 today and the last time that happened, we had a 6% up day during the next trading day. We shall see what tomorrow brings but the market seems strong. 875 on the S&P is key support and the S&P futures bounced from that level this morning and closed at 907.

As for today, my portfolio was fair but nothing too special. My only hedge is the ETF of death, FAZ, and it got wacked pretty good. Other than that, I am long with about a 30% cash position. I added WNR for refining play and OXPS has a flagging chart with $9 cash per share. I like the odds. AXL is a high speculative small cap, with a good chart, and I hope it will rip. I put a $2 stop because I refuse to take another small cap beating. CTIC is one I have been looking at too but it's biotech. Beware of biotech because you can lose body parts (it's that damn explosive). However, it looks like a lotto ticket. At $1.30, I see it going to $.80 or to $2.50-$3. Play at your own risk. FTK, ATHR, and GIGM remain dogs but I still own them.

For investors with a long time frame and portfolio, I like HESS and COP. I think COP is probably worth $55 or 60 and HESS is worth $70. When it will get there, I don't know. COP has strong exposure to natural gas and HESS can refining capabilities. Both benefit from higher crude prices, especially HESS. Everytime crude goes up a $1, HESS's EPS increase by 19 cents.

I also continue to like semiconductors. Upgrades are everywhere. SPIL, TER, CIEN, ATHR, XLNX, FCS, RFMD, STM, MRVL and INTC are individual names. A levered (2x bull) ETF is USD. For less risk and for a long-term play, XLK is a broad etf that will get you long tech.

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