Saturday, May 9, 2009

Weekend Thoughts

Wow, what a week. Very little of a pullback and strong trading allowed me to pull ahead this week, while it looked a little bad earlier in the week. I took some hits on FTK but I had strong small caps that popped over 20% a day, along with a big FAZ trade to pull ahead strong. Semiconductors fell very hard yesterday, with the Philly Semiconductor Index down big. This showed me that money managers are taking profits, in the stocks where the big profits were (semiconductors) and started to buy finanicals. On that dip, I bought some semiconductors via RFMD and will buy more on the dips. The numbers I am seeing are INCREDIBLE for semiconductors and I believe they can move way higher. Semiconductor fab utilization rates should bounce back during the second quarter of the year,

As for Banks, Financials have had a MONSTER run but are underowned compared to Technology. So in essence, since there is more clarity, banks can move higher. I also believe REITs will move higher on this news. Energy is underowned as well but is starting to get bought. Crude is on FIRE and I am hearing $62-64 a bar. in the next 10 days, with a possible pullback to $53.

Going forward, I will adjust my long portfolio like this for the remaining year:

Sell (maybe short) Utilities
Sell (maybe short) Consumer Staples
Neutral on Healthcare
Buy Consumer Discretionary
Buy REITs
Buy select Financials
Buy Technology
Buy Select Energy
Buy Global Industrials, while shorting select ones that have high estimates
Buy Commodities

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