What a beatdown day. Luckily, I got net short Friday; however, I still took big hits across the board, even though the short exposure helped. I got a bunch of dogs but really do not want to take unrealized gains here but at the same times, I really want to get long some names that are on sale. Ags are beginning to look VERY attractive at these levels: AGU, POT, and IPI.
I covered all of my shorts today and will scale into more longs over the next few days. We are in one of two scenarios:
1. The bottom of a trading range that is bounded between 875 - 950 and back up we go to retest resistance levels.
OR
2. A more agressive correction that is centered around fear that the consumer is dead, weak retail sales, higher gas prices, and lower consider confidence.
Commodities might sell off more because of a dollar rally, so I am regretting not selling at least 50% of DXO at $4.80; however, I will contemplate my next move on oil. Frankly, I believe people are trying to short oil and I am looking for short squeeze. The XLE is back to late April/early May prices, so I mean the selloff in energy is rather intense and could be overdone, hence my purchase in ERX (3x bull on energy index). However, if decided to try and catch these ags or energy bottoms, have extra bullets or use tight stops in order to cost average in better.
Lastly, I will admit this market will be more difficult to nagivate during the next 6 months; however, "the gloves are off" and RF is swinging at any obstacle trying to deny him. My time horizons are limited, except for bank longs. Any other position may be held for 1 hour, 1 day, 1 week, 1 month or any other time. I will start trading the market better and running my account way more aggressively, regardless of any dumb "buy and hold" strategiest out there. I got too market happy and let rich gains slip away, particularly in my SSO calls, OPWV, etc.
Bottom line: I am pissed and more determined
No comments:
Post a Comment