Friday, July 31, 2009

Market Outtlook

Sorry for lack of communication, been extremely busy with things. As for my trading account, here is the deal: (note I have 100 things going at once, forgive typos)
I was anticipating a 3-5% correction based on overbought conditions and a lack of earnings buzz; however, that did not happen at all. I applied all index shorts at 950 and got caught in a squeeze. My reasoning for this is that I had a high YTD the return at the time and did not want to lose it, so I tilted net short, leaning an the scenario of a correction and to lock-in gains. Well, I lost some but for the month I am up 10% even with the ultrashort meltdown. This is mainly due to huge gains in big portfolio holdings, like EXM which was my top holding that shot up nearly 45% in two weeks. Anyways, I was sick and tired of being caught short and squeeze, so I covered my AN short and sold all my ultrashorts except BGZ and QID. Actually, towards the end of the day, I added another 10% of my portfolio in QID. In summary, I am net-net meaning theoretically, 50% short and 50% long…technically I believe I am net long by 4 or 5%. I sold out of a bunch of things because I just got sick and tired of the market madness, even though I knew this was going to happen. Since April, I said we were going to 1,050 on the S&P as you recall, however, I did not think it would be this soon, I thought it would be early Fall because of the lack of volume in the Summer. Well, I will probably be right on the target but wrong about the timing. As for my portfolios, ALL of them have 50% cash+. Since the March low, the S&P has moved 49% in just 4 months lol. If this isn’t dot com like, I don’t know what is.
My game plan tomorrow is to raise more cash, regardless of market condition (up or down). I will be traveling tomorrow and will not be around to post but I will be selling out of GNK, FRO, and maybe DRYS (need to see action in DRYS first) as well, in full position sizes. GNK numbers weren’t bad, a solid beat, but there is some uncertainty about future revenue streams, hence the down tick today. I will hold out my AMD, praying that last quarter was a gross margin trough and the new products will generate better margins, so the sell-side can push the stock to the buy-side. I will hold F regardless and more than likely hold PRU and BAC regardless.
On dips, I will reload on technology and banks. In addition, I will construct deeper analysis on technicals, to find some quick trades.
As for the blog, I will be moving to a new site in the next month. I have been trying to get some help from the IT guy, so it will be completed soon.

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