Friday, July 17, 2009

RF's Portfolio

As I am leaving now, here is my portfolio update:

BAC (Cost Avg. $11.90) - This is a 2011 play for me. I believe the bank's core earnings power will be incredible in time and with historical bank multiples of 10x PE, it leaves a 2 or 3 year price target of $30 from my calculations. However, the risk lies in the fact, can they generate the earnings power and the equity dilution that could take place with pref share conversions.

EXM - (Cost avg. $6.21) - Jefferies up estimates on FY 09 and 10 on this one. Commodities are still hot as steel production is picking up..someone has to deliver it, right? Should print $10 if not $15.

F - (cost avg. $4.925) - Long-term bet on Alan Mullay. Long-term should print $7.50 or $10.

FTK (Cost avg. $2.30) - If nat gas and oil pick up these guys will benefit. Very speculative but I made my bed, so I will sleep in it. It's going to drop hard to a buck or it will print $4.

AMD (cost avg. $3.50) - I believe chips will recover and even this dog will recover. I see $2 down or $2 up, flip a coin but I will assume the risk.

KEY (Cost avg. $5.40) - Patienece wearing then on this piece but will hold it out. Regional bank that is highly speculative. If they are truly out of the woods and stop doing dumb things to raise capital (and diluting the common) I believe this bank could print $10 by 2011.

RIMM (Cost avg. $74.75) - Regardless of Cramer and his garbage, I believe RIMM, AAPL, and yes..PALM are the 3 winners. 4G in my view might be bigger than the tech bubble..that is how much growth is in this area. Look at my OPWV from $2 to $3 and will probably print $50 now that I am out of it. 4G is a serious driver in the next two years - watch out for RIMM and AAPL, especially if AAPL gets a new contract with Verizon. AAPL could double easily on that.

HIMX (Cost avg. $2.80 div. adjusted) - Great LCD technology with clean balance sheet.

UNG (Cost avg. $14.10) - I will add more to this..supplies on natural gas are high but production cuts are being made and hurricane season is coming. If hurricane season is DESTRUCTIVE, UNG could print $19+

GNK (Cost avg. $19.10) - My favorite stock...Chinese iron imports at multiyear highs...only 15% of infrastructure (road) stimulus spent...GNK and EXM can move WAYYYYYYY higher.

ENTR (Cost avg. $2.40) - Makes chips that go in DVR boxes. Tons of debt but it will either shoot to $1.50 or $6.

SPWRA (Cost avg. $26) - My favorite solar play that is not working well. Will hold it out, I think solar will pick up in late 2009.

FRO (Cost avg. $20.40) - Favorite tanker....it's a beast. Solid dividend and will add more at $19 or less. In time, I think we can see $30-40 on this one.

PRU (Cost avg. $33.70) - I bought this like 4 days ago and it's already up 6 points lol. This one and LNC got 50%+ upside in my view. I will add LNC on dips but will hold both INTO earnings.

2 comments:

  1. DUDE YOU HAVE BEEN WINNING LIKE CRAZY. I SEE YOU BEEN SELLING THIS UPSWING BUT I DON'T KNOW IF THIS IS A TOP HONESTLY, THIS MIGHT BE ANOTHER LEG UP. WE COULD EASILY BAG ANOTHER 5% HERE ON THE UPSIDE.

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  2. you could be right my friend, tough market to understand therefore I will resort to cash $$

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