Market Outlook - Aug 11th

Sorry for being short yesterday, had many computer difficulties; however, I posted all my trades. As for the day, I was down; mostly due to the breakdown in RTP and other longs that experienced profit taking. I would not read too much into yesterday as it seemed like it was more of a profit-taking day. As for RTP, the Chinese government is accusing them of a spy program of some sorts, which inhibited them to overcharge customers with iron ore….RTP hasn’t commented, so this geopolitical nonsense pisses me off and it’s impossible to predict.

I really don’t see too much on the long side that is attractive to me. I decided to short some commercrial real estate REITS, for the first time since January! ESS and SLG are two and may take a short position in others. Basically, I feel the REIT rally has overextended a bit too far and it due for a pullback, so I believe these are two of the most overvalued REITs in the sector.

As for FTK…we have earnings before the bell today,LOL, always a way good way to start the morning right? I have no idea what to expect but we saw some short covering today, hence the spike. I got a feeling oil is heading to $80-85 during the next few months, so if FTK can actually prove something, this thing can roll. Look at Georgia Gulf…they announced they got financing and the stock went from $5 to $32 in 4 days. I am not saying FTK is going to do that but I do know that FTK traded at $60 in 2007 and if nat gas rebounds, which I believe it will long-term, FTK has a chance to run….short-term it “could” run to $3. I need to review call and see earnings first. I will be honest, this company is sketchy man. They don’t even have a damn earnings announcement date on their website, so I called the number today at 10a and the person told me it was Aug 11 when my broker said it was Monday. There is a class action lawsuit going on against them, so if all fails, I will pass the number on the blog for the lawyers to contact LOL. I will say for you chart people out there, the 200 days is very close, good news and it can soar with 20% short interest.

All in all, trading is rather boring now because the market is in a weird place. Just stay posted, be able to play from both sides of the game (long and short) and avoid leveraged etfs… I am still in my QID long but I will not be for long. This market is very confusing and mixed signals everywhere. I will try to navigate it the best I can...but at least when we got lucky and caught the bottom (check march achives) at least we knew if they didn't shoot up immediately, we got them cheap. Now, we have ramped up 50% since the March bottom, a lot of return in a short period of time, so it's hard to be crazy bullish.....then again we have seen what those ultrashort hedges have done to me, big losses! Once we get a "ah ha" moment either way, I will deploy more cash either way.

Trading Post Error: Please note, I just saw yesterday that I shorted SLG at $35.30. That should be $33.30, apologizes for the typo. As for other trades, I have the following:

BAC, FTK, QID, F, UNG, SHORT SLG, SHORT ESS, WY, FCX, VALE, RTP, LVLT, AMD, SVR, SLM, and ENTR.

I am not liking action on SVR, so may sell, even though it's a long-term 4G hold. Believe it or not, I might add to AMD, if we dip. If these guys can truly deliver (which is the true "if" becausae they suck) the stock can print $5+ by Christmas.