Monday, August 3, 2009

The Rally Continues

The rally continues, as the S&P surpasses 1,000. I bet many people thought I was crazy calling this humor 3 months ago but there is so much cash on the sidelines and so little ownership of equities, the rally continues to build. The question on everyone's mind is..."When will this end? Because we all know it will..." I honestly don't know the answer to that. My target since April (check archives) has been 1,050 on the S&P, so we are almost correct but my timing was off. I just did not believe that we would get that far, given this summer volume. I thought Fall would be the big push; however, the investment "bull" community senses tiny dips, if any. The "bear" community is hoping for a terrible jobs report Friday, so that day will be vital. We could see some profit taking on Thursday but i just don't know, this market is very strong. I took a position in SLM today. I researched the company extensive and it's a very difficult company to understand, due to some many variables and assumptions. I believe the contract given to them by the government with help SLM and I also believe there is a good chance that much of risk is over, due to them satisfying many liquidity concerns during last quarter. My research shows that SLM:- Extended its ABCP facility to April 2010, reducing outstandings by $9 billion, to $12.5- Completed $7.7B of student loan securizations- Repurchased over $1.1B in unsecured sebt- Funded $11B through Straight A conduit programsTo account for the Obama adminstration;s proposal to end private funding of FFELP loans by assuming the FFELP loan portfolio and expenses that will be saved from smaller lending, the stock is worth alot more than current market prices, in my honest view. As for other purchases, I might take a long rental in NVDA for a earnigns play on Thursday but want to see if we dip first. I am also looking at commodtiy names but the markups are very high already. Companies like Freeport-McMoran (FCX) could really smoke numbers in the future because they have expousre to great metals like Gold (falling dollar will boost golf) Silver (another inflation play) and economy turning metals like Copper, which has been soaring. I wanted to buy it at $18 but fear killed me, now its at $65 and I want to buy it LOL. Funny how things work but keep in mind this used to be a hedge fund favorite in 2007 and printed $130....if we get strong reflation in the coming years, it can do it again, given many production facilities have lowered output to save expenses and could put upward pressure on pricing.

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