RF Portfolio Update

I was up about 5% on the day alone - got lucky but went almost all-in short on margin. Here is my portfolio updates.

BAC (Cost high $11's) - Best value for the banks. I may dip more if we get cheaper. I hate to sell it here because I think it will touch $20 by year end and high $20's by end of 2010. I rather just hold on to shorts to hedge out the losses and let it hold.

F (Cost $4.925) - Great long but will probably drop more. I will hold this for years and want a $10 price target before I sell. The company probably will do a equity offering soon and needs to work on labor costs.

Short IYR ($40.60 short price) - REITS are overextended, I will let them pause and cover.

Short LVS ($14.20 short price) - Swaine Flu short due to rising fears of flu, may weaken travel trips to vacation spots (hotels, airplaines, casinos, crusies, etc.)

Short RCL ($19.28 short price) - same thesis as LVS

PEP ($56.60 cost) - Slow money investment. Shares are undervalued, company has 3% dividend and the purchase of bottlers will save $400m in annual savings due 2012. I think it can print $65-70 per share but not overnight. The value is in the snack food business, Coke doesn't have it.

Short QQQQ ($40.54 short price) - Market correction, shorting this gets me short the Nasdaq index.

RIG ($72.75 cost) - Cheap oil exploration and the company has the best quality. Oil is the key watch on this. If oil holds $70 for time, exploration projects comeback and these guys control deepwater drilling. I will add if we dip. Long-term hold for me and I think we get $90+.

Short SPY ($103.30 short price) - Market correction, shorting this gets me short the S&P.

STAR (either $23 or $24 cost i can't remember) - Long-term 4G smart phone - internet index play. The company will do good long-term, I will post report soon on it for you guys to read. I overpaid, but will add more in $16-18 level. Long-term we will see $26-30, if not higher.

TWM ($31.25 cost) - Gets me short the Russell Index (times two) double short ETF. Market correction short.

UNG ($14.10 cost) - Biggest loser, down 26% but will hold it. The UNG is poison with a terrible contango in natural gas futures. It's a complicated etf, I am not buying more or selling, will hold for hopes of recovery.

ENTR ($2.45 cost) - Semiconductor firm, makes chips that go into DVR boxes. Dice roll and will hold it out.

LVLT ($1.27 cost) - Piece of s*it. Risky dice roll but firm can't control expenses. It's a tiny position for me and will hold it out unless it gets problmatic.

WY ($37.15 cost) - A great long-term bet on housing. I hate that they are selling lumber yards at low prices but they want to improve balance sheet. I will add more in low$30's and looking for price target of $45 to $50.

SLM ($8.40 cost) - Been in and out of this one but long-term Sallie has some value. Of course, we need those students to get jobs to pay the loans but last quarter was great. They did a lot to improve things. I will add more on dips, it's one of the cheaper finanicals out there but keep in mind - "student loans, jobs, repayment" I think Sallie Mae is out of the woods unless the numbers out smart me, I don't think that is the case..money managers just need trust to buy it up.

VALE ($20 cost) - I am down on this and RTP but don't care. Metals will be high in demand and if we get inflation, I want metals. I will definetly buy more VALE and RTP, my thesis has been explained on this sector already.

RTP ($154 cost) - see VALE

AMD ($3.83 cost) - I won this hard fought battle. Still have 500 shares from 3,500 original buy - keeping it small and let it be a dice roll. Either $2.50 or $6 is my thoughts on price target, they need to do work because Intel is smoking hot.

TSRA ($26 cost) - Long-term investment, small position but imaging division is undervalued. It's worth $35-40 but won't see it until 2011.

HES ($51 cost) - Small position but dirty cheap. Has no momentum. If you want a long-term energy play, HES is probably worth $70 a share, just will take time.

TSO (Cost $13.20) - Trading position on refiner rally. Will sell soon.


*All in all, I keep my trading positions in higher dollar amount. The long-term buys are small dollar amounts but believe I will make money on them. It will take time and tie up capital, therefore, I keep them smaller in size. These long-term plays have good IRA prospects (the TSRA is a bit uncertain).