Market Outlook - March 31st

Futures up today, I hope they hold. I have no short positions because I am betting on a rally going into Thursday's mark - to - market meeting. I think the FASB will alter alot of rules; however, suspending mark-to-market probably won't happen. If it does, we will rally 400+ pts in a given day.

As for financials, FAS under $5 is rather an eye look because hedge funds don't want to be short going into this meeting. I would hope for a bigger pullback closer to $4 then scale in (if you want to buy 500, buy like 200 first and avg down to improve cost basis). We might not get to $4 and as of 6:00a today, it was up 8%.

Stocks you want to watch, include:

RIMM - Report earnings Thursday but everyone I am hearing is saying by it into earnings. I have to admit, everyone I see has a blackberry and their estimates are conservative; however, its a 50-50. As for some inside information, Goldman Sachs is telling clients to buy it ahead of earnings on Thursday (I don't make investment decisions based on Goldman, but they sent a note to their clients).

DLTR and FDO - These "dollar" retailers are so hot and continue to smoke. I will try to catch them on a pullback and hold into earnings. These estimates seems too conservative as well.

BKE - Has high cash levels, with high short interest. Niche retailer but you may know more about the retailer than I do.

SNDA - Chinese video games.

SHORT SELL IDEAS:

High debt oil firms: HERO and BAS are probably going to $0. If you want to short, short these on rips.

Politics are running this market folks. It's crazy, news from Washington has moved the markets for the past two Mondays, in dramatic ways. Keep an eye on the auto situation because that is the biggest killer on the market. As for my portfolio, I plan on holding the TLT, NTGR, TTWO, and IBKR for a long period of time. The rest, I will probably cut on a rip. NTGR, TTWO, and IBKR have amazing balance sheets and will be nice longs (in my view). I may take a stake in RIMM, unsure, perhaps maybe calls. I like the April $50 calls selling around a $1.

Good luck out there, hope you make a killing.