Monday, March 30, 2009

RF Position Update - Equities

With a day like this, I want to give an update of my holdings and the reasons why I hold them (I think this is a good process for anyone).

NTGR (Bought around $11) - Solid tech company with a great brand. The business is a bit cyclical right now; however, they are a dominant player and will guide the storm. The main reason why I owe this firm is because of the great balance sheet. The firm has nearly $5.80 in cash per share (represents 50% of the current stock price) and has no debt. Liquidity will not be an issue and these cash levels will attract fund managers. Only down $0.25 today, not bad.

TTWO (Bought in low $6's) - Great video game maker, with good partnerships. The firm has one of the best video games in the world, Grand Theft Auto, and that game is their cash cow. Analyst's believe it will sell 50% more copies than last version; however, the downside is that the game comes out 4Q of 2010. This year, they will not be profitable, which may reduce their cash per share level; however, I believe their estimates are too conservative. The stock has about $2.50 of cash per share and a great balance sheet. This could be a takeover candidate.

TLT (Bought today around $105) - This is my "hedge" so to speak. I believe this and the dollar will be the safe havens if we continue to fall. In addition, the fed will be buying long treasuries, which will drive up the prices of bonds, while simutaneously dropping yields and borrowing costs (bond prices and yields are inversely related). Therefore, if prices of treasuries increase, the TLT will increase. I see $115 possible here and is a short-term play.

JASO (Averaged around $3.30) - This is about 20-30% from the high on Wednesday, so I initiated a position. The 52 week high is $26 and 52 low is $1. I like the risk reward here; however, risk is high here. China also announced a solar subsidzing plan that could stir these stock up, really high. The plan has not been released in full; however, if it pans out, all solar will trade higher. I like this as my spec play but it carries a lot of risk and can drop from these levels in a bad market.

IBKR (Bought at $15.68) - This is an interactive broker business with a great model. They offer professional brokerage services and market maker business, that is very low cost and extremely profitable for the firm. This is more of a long-term play; however, I will build into this name.

GNK (Bought at $14) - This is a tiny position and has done nothing. Shipping has been improving, as well as the baltic dry index; however, these are very volatile and can hurt a portfolio. I may kick this name; however, if the market takes off, so will this. I believe the story is fair but I came to dance to early.

RBY (Bought at $1.49) - This is a very tiny position as well, on a gold miner. Basically, they stumpled on a huge gold discovery and I took a position to see how buyers would react. I honestly think the firm could get a takeover bid, based on this discovery but I am not betting on it. I will keep at $1.35 stop and kick it but it's holding up well, so I can't complain.

Lastly, I have some option plays and about 70% in cash. Cash is key and the "lean" for the market is to the downside. I really don't think we will break 777 but its looking very possible. My best advice is to keep high cash levels, so if stocks falls, you can scale in for a good cost average.




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