Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Market Outlook- Sept.16th
Futures seem to be green this morning - indicating a higher open. As for market news, my thesis that tech M&A would appear, discussed 3 months ago seems accurate with the Adobe (ADBE) $21.50 all-cash bid for Omniture (OMTR). My gut feels that Yahoo (YHOO) may make a counteroffer - but that is just the voices in my head talking again :D Tech remains a great sector due to growth prospects and the amazing balance sheets. Tons of companies have massive cash piles on the books, with minimal debt - so in my view, the M&A will continue. If i had to pick a few firms that look like takeover targets, I would say: Ciena (CIEN), Red Hat (RHT), VM Ware (VMW), and Sandisk (SNDK) are look to be canidates - however, most seem to be priced-in, meaning upside in stock price appreciation is limited. As for other aspects of the market, the dollar continues to be pounded. This is the second lowest oversold reading in the history of the dollar! My believe is of course, it will continue to be weaker; however, I believe we could see a short-term bounce, which might cause me to buy the dollar (UUP) and short crude oil (USO). If I make the trade, I will post - but getting long the dollar is not on the top of my trade list. There is some great action in some semis - particularly Sandisk (SNDK). It jumped strong from $16 to $20ish and many are bullish on the stock. I might look at thie name on a dip to $17 but not trying to chase a crowded trade. As for banks, Barclays is hosting a Finanicals conference this week and many of the mid-cap banks see good improvements. Suntrust (STI) said they have no interest to buy failing banks, which to me is not that positive, in belief, that many of their compeitors, like BB&T (BBT) are buying them for dirt cheap - as the CEO of BB&T says the deals are "much less, risk free". I like STI long term but have been selling it in my long-term portfolio from my $15.75 purchase price.
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