Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Update

Looks like we got another RF winner here in WNR - go baby go. It's such a junk refiner, if oil depresses and the crack spread improves, we could easily double - if not we could see $3 on her. Refiners are same level as airlines - buyer beware. As for the market, it's still ramping. The credit card data is absolutely terrible. Deliquences for most banks have increased and for some banks NCOs (Net Charge Offs) have rose as well. American Express (AXP) had the best report while deal ol Bank of America (BAC) is sucking wind with the worst - near 14% NCO rate! This shows the consumer is weak; however, every mall I go to seems packed..very strange. I will let these banks come in some, then reload, buying them in size. HBAN and KEY are my favorite specs while BAC, JPM, and WFC remain the giants. With mortgage rates dropping again, WFC and BAC could rippp - keep in mind BAC has huge mortgage exposure with Countrywide - low rates could create huge housing demand. AMD is nearing $6, while FTK is back and roaring - how how the stock gods love me. If i was still long here, i would be trimming here - no question - both management teams are pathetic. The cheapest sector remains consumer staples and the richest valued sector is either tech or consumer discretionary. PEP, MO, and PG are my favorite consumer staples stocks - I will add more on dips.

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