Today will be very interesting. Futures are down about 9 points right now but we have tons of economic data, coming out today. MBA applications is due out this morning, as well as some pending home sales data, so I am hoping for some good numbers. Yesterday's late day selloff really hurt technical indicators that I monitor, particularly the accumulation/dist. measures.
We are in a tough zone, so if you trade, I'd play small. The bears are still pulling on weak economic data, like jobs, as well as this GM bankruptcy. This auto stuff can really give the shorts some pull. On the bull side, we can hope for some good data today, as well as the meeting tomorrow. I really don't believe many hedge funds will be short into tomorrow, so I really think we could rally today or tomorrow, on short covering alone. I will use this rally, to sell some select longs and maybe build some short exposure, in case we retrace.
As for picks, it's hard to say. I bought some HA for a technical breakout but normally speculative picks get nailed when we go down. I will hold them for a while until the pain gets too bad. If you play leveraged ETF's, I would play small, just because of the mood swings of the market. I personally like the TLT for a less risk play and I believe we can get $5-$15 points of upside. In addition, I still like firms like NTGR and IBKR. Netgear has really held up well, I want it to come back to $10, so I can back up the truck but I think she is gone. Netgear has no debt and $6 of cash per share, great value play! IBKR has a great business model and a amazing balance sheet. I don't calculate cash per share ratios on financials because it can be misleading (cash may from brokerage holdings than real cash). One of these two will be my top holdings in due time.
I will be back, if I make any posts, good luck today
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MBA release shows strong refinancing but very little movement on new loans for home purchases. Everybody is still talking about unemployment - no jobs, no new loans. Really want to see that indicator turn around.
ReplyDeleteFutures are making a comeback - now SP at 790 (was as low as 780 last night around 9). I tend to agree with Ryan on being short heading into this meeting tomorrow. This is such a tough market right now.